Annual CET - 2008

[Stu_London]

Just to clear up - there are no prizes for this, just kudos and therefore punts are welcome anytime.

Obviously a correct or near correct punt now, comes with more kudos than one in December 2008

[Stratos Ferric]

About 0.45°C. 2004 was similar to 2005. Swings and roundabouts really. Anyone know the long term average then? Impossible to make a guess without knowing really.

The ten year mean is in the mid 10.4s. The range in the period is 9.93 - 10.83, and five of the last six years have landed in a historically very narrow belt of 10.44-10.59.

If the current relatively cool run were continue through the year (something that would be remarkable in its own right) with the same average degree of coolness then c.f. the previous ten years CET would land around 9.9C.

Hopefully all of that will help with the deliberations.

[noggin]

....and five of the last six years have landed in a historically very narrow belt of 10.44-10.59.

Stratos, how do you view this? Do you not think that it might be indicative of an ending of a warming cycle?

[Stratos Ferric]

Stratos, how do you view this? Do you not think that it might be indicative of an ending of a warming cycle?

It could be, but as I've posted moe than once over the past few days, if you take a mid line long-term projection for warming it amount to no more than 0.03C per annum, and we KNOW that warming is not absolutely linear: even in the recent warming there have been significant bounds forward followed by short periods of retrenchement. Statistically, if largely because of last year, a trend line through the last ten years is still upwards I'm afraid. Also, the ten year mean is so far ahead of the thirty year rolling mean that, like the housing market, there's a strong argument for period of catch up (otherwise we would be into warming at a rate close to 0.5C per decade than the 0.25C that the thirty year mean is running at. Alas, that latter has at least a decade more warming locked in even if temperatures start to dive south. Thirty years ago we were in a period when CET landed between around 8.75 - 9.5 most years, fully a degree and more below where we are now, and, spookily, in line with the general concensus on likely rates of GW.

So, in summary, we appear to have stabilised for now, but I am seeing nothing to suggest that the pattern is about to go into reverse. For that to be the case we'd need to start to see some dramatically cold months, not the largely close to ten year average we've had for the past three. As mentioned previously as well, the recent period is marked for me more by the lack of the outstanding warmth that has occasionally been typical over ecent years, than by any extremely cold months, and this also reflects the pattern of recent years: the warming climate is more driven by increasing minima than it is by rising maxima.

[Stu_London]

You forgot to mention 'artificial cold'

[noggin]

It could be, but as I've posted moe than once over the past few days,

Whoops, indeed you have, Stratos........I've just come across it It was in a thread which I haven't frequented before. I'll scuttle back over there, rather than clutter this one up.

Silly me. :blink:

[Stratos Ferric]

Whoops, indeed you have, Stratos........I've just come across it It was in a thread which I haven't frequented before. I'll scuttle back over there, rather than clutter this one up.

Silly me. :blink:

Sorry, not intended as a criticism: I know better than most the feeling of being hectored for not having read each and every post in each and every thread. My point was that it's not a view I've alighted on suddenly, that's all.

You forgot to mention 'artificial cold'

You're a wag Stu, and certainly your talents are wasted here on N-W. lol

[cheeky_monkey]

The only months that I think are totally impossible to get a CET as low as that SB are Feb, May & Nov. I also think it's going to be tricky to get the August CET as low as 16.2, but obviously possible just tricky IMO. I am thinking that the lowest possible Annual CET for this year will be a 10.6* with the highest being 11.0*, although I wouldn't rule out higher than that.

well the last 3 augusts have been 16.2, 16.1 and 15.4...so not difficult at all!

[Mr Maunder]

I'll go for 10.28c....I expect the increases in temperaure to level off as the levels of ozone slowly recover.

MM

[noggin]

Sorry, not intended as a criticism: I know better than most the feeling of being hectored for not having read each and every post in each and every thread. My point was that it's not a view I've alighted on suddenly, that's all.

That's OK Stratos....I didn't take it as criticism.

Edited January 2, 2008 by noggin

[Snooz]

10.67 please..

[Weather-history]

Now this is the right thread! :lol: Start again.......

Summers ending in "8"

1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm

1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm

1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm

1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm

1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm

1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm

1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm

1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm

1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm

1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm

1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm

1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm

2008 ?

CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm

Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run or is it going to continue?

The CET average and rainfall averages for summers ending in other numbers for that period of 1880-2007

0 CET average: 15.3 Rainfall: 235.5mm

1 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.4mm

2 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 238mm

3 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 200.5mm

4 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.2mm

5 CET average: 15.7 Rainfall: 194.7mm

6 CET average: 15.5 Rainfall: 211.1mm

7 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 213.8mm

8 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm

9 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 186.9mm

The best summers in that period tended to end in "3" "5" and "9" whilst the poorest tended to end in "2" and "8"

Another interesting fact about summers ending "8" is that there is only one July in that period (1888-1998) actually got above a CET of 16.0 (1928 with 16.1)

Using England and Wales sunshine figures

The sunshine average for summers ending in "5": 591.3hrs

Sunshine average for summers ending in "8": 472.3hrs that compares to summers ending in "2" with an average of 513.4hrs

Taking this into account then the summers ending in "8" have been the poorest overall

Manchester Summer Index average

For summers ending in "8": 193

For summers ending in "5": 233

[Guest Mike W]

I was told by SF that this would be the best place to put the rolling 30 year average up for 1978-2007 using Mr Eden's Manley Series: Jan:4.3, Feb:4.4, Mar:6.4, Apr:8.4, May:11.6, Jun:14.4, Jul:16.6, Aug:16.4, Sep:14.1, Oct:10.7, Nov:7.2, Dec:4.9, Annual 9.95. It seems that, March-June and September to November have shown the biggest jumps from the 1971-2000 average.

Edited January 6, 2008 by Mike W

[Terminal Moraine]

I'll guess 10.02, possibly more in hope than expectation. I'm expecting a cold early spring, a cooler autumn than in recent years and a cool, wet summer.

[Snowly does it]

I thought I'd post this in here for now and see whether its worthy of its own thread nearer the time......

Looking at the possiblility of a sub-10c 12 month period through to April of this year.

As things stand we need to lose 6 degrees from the first four months blowtorch of last year to attain a sub 10c 12 month rolling period.

If we got the same results then we would be of course at 10.48

Conversely if we had the 'cold' start that 2006 had we would come in at 9.67

These would appear to be the outer markers (although there is some scope for a milder Feb/Mar than 2007, this is offset somewhat by the nosensical Jan/Apr combo), so median wise we are going to miss by a relative whisker.

What about the 30 year and ten year averages?

If we hit the 30 year averages for Jan-Apr we will return (71-00) - 9.78

If we hit the ten year rolling mean for each month - 10.09

30 year rolling mean around 9.81

Basically we are looking to lose about 1.2 degrees cumulative from the 10 year rolling mean making a return somewhere like 4.9, 5.1, 6.6, 8.7 a reasonable target.

Conclusion - unless we get a cold month twixt now and end of March odds are we will just miss out.

[Stu_London]

I thought I'd post this in here for now and see whether its worthy of its own thread nearer the time......

Looking at the possiblility of a sub-10c 12 month period through to April of this year.

As things stand we need to lose 6 degrees from the first four months blowtorch of last year to attain a sub 10c 12 month rolling period.

If we got the same results then we would be of course at 10.48

Conversely if we had the 'cold' start that 2006 had we would come in at 9.67

These would appear to be the outer markers (although there is some scope for a milder Feb/Mar than 2007, this is offset somewhat by the nosensical Jan/Apr combo), so median wise we are going to miss by a relative whisker.

What about the 30 year and ten year averages?

If we hit the 30 year averages for Jan-Apr we will return (71-00) - 9.78

If we hit the ten year rolling mean for each month - 10.09

30 year rolling mean around 9.81

Basically we are looking to lose about 1.2 degrees cumulative from the 10 year rolling mean making a return somewhere like 4.9, 5.1, 6.6, 8.7 a reasonable target.

Conclusion - unless we get a cold month twixt now and end of March odds are we will just miss out.

I think the prevailing La nina conditions which as forecast to ease off slightly means we are actaully slightly odds on to get below. Although there is no cold in January, even zonality looks like it would deliver something less than 1.5 below the Nino driven January of 2007. Thereafter, I think blocking will occur as the atlantic slows down and a weakening Nina could deliver a colder than average spring.

So for me the question is not whether we go sub 10C for the 12 month mean, but how far below and how long can it be maintained as it comes up against the cooler summer months of 2007

[Snowly does it]

So for me the question is not whether we go sub 10C for the 12 month mean, but how far below and how long can it be maintained as it comes up against the cooler summer months of 2007

Well in that respect we have some leeway with June - that was a mildish one and above the ten year mean so we might not gain there, July and August - you have to fancy losing 3 degrees or maybe more there so we would need to claw back from September, October, November - between them only 1 degree above the 71-00 mean. If we got that degree back and lost th 3 degrees in Summer I am mooting we need to achieve something like 4.4, 4.6, 6.1, 8.2 and May retaining 11.9 to get 2008 below 10c.

Not easy!

[Stu_London]

Not easy!

No not easy at all.

It's an interesting sub-plot but won't have a lot of bearing on the long term GW

Those who are looking for signs of the rise in temps plateauing or reversing slightly will definitely need the rolling mean to go below 10 and stay there for most if not all of 2008.

Even so, as I said in another thread recently, the next 30 years of data will have far more bearing than the last 30 years in proving or disproving AGW theories.

[Snowly does it]

No not easy at all.

It's an interesting sub-plot but won't have a lot of bearing on the long term GW

Those who are looking for signs of the rise in temps plateauing or reversing slightly will definitely need the rolling mean to go below 10 and stay there for most if not all of 2008.

Even so, as I said in another thread recently, the next 30 years of data will have far more bearing than the last 30 years in proving or disproving AGW theories.

Oh absolutely Stu, it will mean diddly squat. However its that little crumb of hope/comfort and the statistical interest that make that 10c barrier such a mountain it seems.

Sub 9..... now THAT would be something to raise an eyebrow!

[Calrissian]

Summers ending in "8"

Hmm, Mr Data, I really am a bit surprised at you. Are you really that much into numerology ?

-

I agree that there are some quirky statistics out there, but thats purely because with so many thousands of stats, some of them will doubtless look somewhat 'odd'.

I'm sure that once we reach to May, we'll start to see some great summer days and then the '8' quirk can be ended.

Calrissian: would not put Mr Data at the helm (Troi would be preferred)

[Stratos Ferric]

Hmm, Mr Data, I really am a bit surprised at you. Are you really that much into numerology ?

-

I agree that there are some quirky statistics out there, but thats purely because with so many thousands of stats, some of them will doubtless look somewhat 'odd'.

I'm sure that once we reach to May, we'll start to see some great summer days and then the '8' quirk can be ended.

Calrissian: would not put Mr Data at the helm (Troi would be preferred)

C, you and I both know that there really are hidden messages in the Bible about the end of warming, and the year coming in under 10C though, don't we?

[Stu_London]

Ok lets start to ignite the question of whether we go sub 10 in running for a while in 2008

If Jan comes in at

1) 6.2 - the 12 month mean will be 10.41

We will have 4.9C cumulative degrees in hand although we will be against 3 months (Feb-Apr) where a cumulative anomoly of 6.9C (1961-1990), so it could still be comfortably above average and still go sub 10C

2) 5.6 - the 12 month mean will be 10.36

We will have 4.3C cumulative degrees in hand

3) 5.0 - the 12 month mean will be 10.31

We will have 3.7C cumulative degrees in hand

[Gavin P]

My 2008 prediction is already looking a disaster.

I'm looking at a January CET to be 7.0 or maybe higher.

Edited January 17, 2008 by Gavin P

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, with Hadley's Jan CET on 5.5 up to the 16th, the second half of the month would have to be over 8.5*C to get to 7*C+ for the final figure. Jan 1921 could only achieve 7.9 for the second half, which I believe is the warmest second half of January on record. 2002 came close though at 7.8 for the second half. So unlikely that we will be quite as mild as last year's 7.0. I still think though that its odds on that we will almost certainly get a CET over 6*C which will make it well into the top ten warmest Januarys of the last 100 years, and the first significantly above average month since April 2007.

Edited January 17, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, with Hadley's Jan CET on 5.5 up to the 16th, the second half of the month would have to be over 8.5*C to get to 7*C+ for the final figure. Jan 1921 could only achieve 7.9 for the second half, which I believe is the warmest second half of January on record. 2002 came close though at 7.8 for the second half. So unlikely that we will be quite as mild as last year's 7.0. I still think though that its odds on that we will almost certainly get a CET over 6*C which will make it well into the top ten warmest Januarys of the last 100 years, and the first significantly above average month since April 2007.

Indeed, and alas you have to go back to 1987 to find the last time a notably warm month was bounded immediately either side by cold ones. Given that the trend since September now looks upwards we'll need to see some decent cold appear soon for me not to suspect that February and / or March may also land comfortably above par. Stu's 10.6 cumulative for F+M then starts to seem a little conservative, given than more often than not in the christmas pudding the months have delivered a combined 11+ outcome; only 2/11 have come in lower.