Annual CET - 2008

[Sunshine]

It's only a guess, but here's how I think 2008 will turn out.

January: 6.4

February: 5.1

March: 6.8

April: 8.8

May: 12.7

June: 14.5

July: 16.3

August: 16.4

September: 14.0

October: 10.3

November: 6.1

December: 5.1

Yearly CET: 10.20

[Calrissian]

Sunshine, ohh so low !

10.2 ? Wow, that'd be amazing if that happened, and a real break from the recent decade trend/average.

I really can't see this summer being anything near as bad as last year, not that it was that 'cool' anyway. We're just 17 days in, and already people are starting to realise that this January will be another mild one.

--

[SP1986]

10.7C dont need to explain myself I dont think

[jemtom]

10.4c, perhaps even a tad higher. If July and August turned out to be as anomolously warm as I expect Jan and Feb to be we could be even higher, but I don't think they will be anything other than slightly above average.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average

March: 7.8C, 1.5C above average

Q1 CET: 6.1C, 1.2C above average

April: 9.1C, 1C above average

May: 10.8C, 0.5C below average

June: 15.4C, 1.3C above average

Q2 CET: 11.8C, 0.9C above average

July: 18.2C, 1.7C above average

August: 16.2C, Average

September: 15C, 1.3C above average

Q3 CET: 16.5C, 1C above average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.58C (10.73C, 0.98C above average), 0.83C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the second warmest on record.

[Stratos Ferric]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

...

2008 CET: 10.58C (10.73C, 0.98C above average), 0.83C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the second warmest on record.

Whcih record is that "on" SB. 10.58 wouldn't be the second warmest CET. It would be a top ten I think, something like 7th or 8th if I remember rightly.

Edited February 3, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[acbrixton]

Whcih record is that "on" SB. 10.58 wouldn't be the second warmest CET. It would be a top ten I think, something like 7th or 8th if I remember rightly.

SF I believe that the reference is to the 'revised' guess of 10.73 which incorporates the under-estimation of the January CET.

regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

SF I believe that the reference is to the 'revised' guess of 10.73 which incorporates the under-estimation of the January CET.

regards

ACB

Exactly, right now, it is'nt looking good for a breaking of the warm trend.

[Stratos Ferric]

SF I believe that the reference is to the 'revised' guess of 10.73 which incorporates the under-estimation of the January CET.

regards

ACB

Thanks Andrew. It is hard for my simple mind to keep up with the whirling dervish of SB's myriad forecasts and projections.

[Roger J Smith]

Hey you lovely people, I had a few minutes between earth-shattering discoveries, so I took the liberty of listing the guesses (these are guesses, right?) for the annual CET for 2008, in each case giving the last of various updates when necessary.

I have not bothered to note any late entries, as far as I can determine, end of March would probably be about the first time anyone might have an advantage (recalling 2007, probably end of June).

I have added a second decimal place to some, just to keep the columns straight. If you don't like this, complain to the International Registry of Appropriate Decimal Place Tabulation in Zagreb. An asterisk will denote that said prediction has the additional decimal place.

From top to bottom, then, the guesses were:

11.20 -- Iceberg*

11.10 -- Calrissian*

10.85 -- Mike W (said 10.6 to 11.1, this is the mid-point)

10.80 -- Magpie*

10.75 -- MK 13 and Snowman

10.70 -- Stephen Prudence*

10.67 -- Snooz

10.66 -- Optimus Prime

10.63 -- Reef

10.60 -- Roger J Smith, Eddie*

10.58 -- Summer Blizzard

10.57 -- Duncan McAlister

10.55 -- Stratos Ferric

10.50 -- Dr Hoskins*

10.42 -- Stargazer

10.40 -- Jemtom*, Pit*, MarkBayley*

10.37 -- Atlantic Flame Thrower

10.35 -- Snowmaiden

10.30 -- Mr Data*, Lady Pakal*

10.28 -- Mr Maunder

10.25 -- Mr Sleet

10.20 -- Paul Tall*, Sunshine*

10.10 -- Slipknotsam*

10.02 -- Terminal Moraine

10.00 -- Stu London*

09.90 -- Jeremy Shockey*

09.80 -- Hiya*, SteveB*

09.65 -- La Nina

09.50 -- Noggin*, GavinP*

09.20 -- Adam Jones 416

May I point out the curious cluster of guesses from the three Mr Somethings, and of the 38 predictions listed above, the median (average of 19th and 20th ranked) would be 10.40 ... which seems a tad low to me ... but there you have it.

Apologies to anyone overlooked or misquoted, lots of time to amend this list.

B)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, my 2007 prediction wasn't too bad, I went for 10.59C for 2007, and Hadley has it at 10.48 (and there was me thinking my prediction was certain to be somewhat on the low side!) It was based on hypothetical monthly predictions, so I'll try that method again for 2008:

For 2008:

Jan 6.6

Feb 4.9

Mar 5.8

Apr 8.7

May 13.2

June 15.1

July 16.6

Aug 17.9

Sep 13.4

Oct 11.8

Nov 6.5

Dec 5.5

So my annual prediction weighs in at 10.50C

Edited February 5, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers
Hadley CET for January was 6.6 not 6.7

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, my 2007 prediction wasn't too bad, I went for 10.59C for 2007, and Hadley has it at 10.48 (and there was me thinking my prediction was certain to be somewhat on the low side!) It was based on hypothetical monthly predictions, so I'll try that method again for 2008:

For 2008:

Jan 6.6

Feb 4.9

Mar 5.8

Apr 8.7

May 13.2

June 15.1

July 16.6

Aug 17.9

Sep 13.4

Oct 11.8

Nov 6.5

Dec 5.5

So my annual prediction weighs in at 10.50C

I'll tell you what, that forecast for January isn't half good.

[Stu_London]

Annual CET in running to January is 10.44C so a little chipped off despite the exceptional mildness of the month.

Models looking good for at least a small chunk to be knocked off in February

5.5c = 10.42 in running

5.0c = 10.37

4.5c = 10.33

4.0c = 10.29

Difficult to see below that - on the other hand if it were to be milder than projected

6.0c = 10.46 in running

6.5c = 10.50

To go sub 10C in running we probably now need March and April to be cumulatively 13.5 or less. Only achieved in 1996, 2001 and 2006 - all years notable for a coldish spring.

The weight of evidence says to me that this has only a 15% or so probability of occuring now.

That said with La Nina in charge - the sub 10 in running could still be occur in May or June

[Stratos Ferric]

...

That said with La Nina in charge - the sub 10 in running could still be occur in May or June

I still think that really it will pretty much hinge on April given last year's excess. If the Atlantic stays cool, and we stay zonal, it might yet get close.

[Snowly does it]

I still think that really it will pretty much hinge on April given last year's excess. If the Atlantic stays cool, and we stay zonal, it might yet get close.

It should get reaosnably close, I think there will be no cigar though! Having said that, if La Nina conditions persist, a reasonable second and third bite May/June perhaps?

Interestingly, with evry month since May lower than its preceeding year, if Feb can avoid going too high and we get lucky in March, April should complete a year of temps below the preceeding year - May and June have a chance of making it 14 months before July and the start of the more normal run we have had.... what does this prove? Nothing really, unless its just how extraordinary the period May 2006-April 2007 was.

[Stratos Ferric]

It should get reaosnably close, I think there will be no cigar though! Having said that, if La Nina conditions persist, a reasonable second and third bite May/June perhaps?

Interestingly, with evry month since May lower than its preceeding year, if Feb can avoid going too high and we get lucky in March, April should complete a year of temps below the preceeding year - May and June have a chance of making it 14 months before July and the start of the more normal run we have had.... what does this prove? Nothing really, unless its just how extraordinary the period May 2006-April 2007 was.

That's a good stat. I think the striking thing for me would be that a year of continuous cooling would still leave us way above previous par. We've come a long way.

[richarddx7]

Totally insubstancial of course but why not take a guess:

January 6.6 (had it duh)

February 5.7 (will get cooler)

March 4.9 (Coldest month of the year should have swapped places with february)

April 7.8 (Cool & showery)

May 13.1 (Only month significantly warm compared to average bar january

June 14.3 (Very dull with northerly winds dominating)

July 16.1 (Best month of the year and dry)

August 14.7 (Cool and disappointing)

September 13.5 (Average and dull probably wet and windy at times)

October 12.2 (Mild zonality)

November 7.7 (Wet)

December 7.1 (Typical even larger teapot month)

Average: 10.31C

[Stu_London]

Hadley looks like being 5.3C

If confirmed then the Annual in running CET is 10.40C (5.2 gives us 10.39, 5.4 gives us 10.41)

We have 13.7 cumulative degree to play with in March and April to go sub 10C in running. 71-00 average is 14.4C, so still very much odds against.

First 10 days of March look like being 6.5-7.0C average, despite a short cold snap. So we will be relying on some frosts later in the month which are possible if we get high pressure as dewpoints and humidity tend to fall off this time of year.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hadley looks like being 5.3C

If confirmed then the Annual in running CET is 10.40C (5.2 gives us 10.39, 5.4 gives us 10.41)

We have 13.7 cumulative degree to play with in March and April to go sub 10C in running. 71-00 average is 14.4C, so still very much odds against.

First 10 days of March look like being 6.5-7.0C average, despite a short cold snap. So we will be relying on some frosts later in the month which are possible if we get high pressure as dewpoints and humidity tend to fall off this time of year.

It's certainly very tight. It would be a surprise if March made much of an impression either way, and as we have been saying since the turn of the year, much probably hinges on April. Thereafter we'd be relying on a sustained run of (by recent standards) relative cool. That would be noteworthy on its own account, but with the Atlantic less warm than it was it's certainly not out of the question.

[Stu_London]

It's certainly very tight. It would be a surprise if March made much of an impression either way, and as we have been saying since the turn of the year, much probably hinges on April. Thereafter we'd be relying on a sustained run of (by recent standards) relative cool. That would be noteworthy on its own account, but with the Atlantic less warm than it was it's certainly not out of the question.

It may be that we achieve a sub 10 reading mid month only for it to be gone again by the end of the month.

If i recall correctly May 2007 started exceptionally mild and June 2007 had a cooler 2nd half than 1st half.

[Stratos Ferric]

It may be that we achieve a sub 10 reading mid month only for it to be gone again by the end of the month.

If i recall correctly May 2007 started exceptionally mild and June 2007 had a cooler 2nd half than 1st half.

An interesting possibility that I certainly hadn't thought about. We certainly have the facility to monitor day by day.

[azores92]

An interesting possibility that I certainly hadn't thought about. We certainly have the facility to monitor day by day.

so what do we think about the winter. some are suggesting a temporary halt to la nina, after a gradual weakening throughout 2008, and some are suggesting yet another mild year. i personally dont know, what do you think?

[Snowly does it]

An interesting possibility that I certainly hadn't thought about. We certainly have the facility to monitor day by day.

I wonder if we actually breached sub-10 during the 12 months to April 2006? The 12 month for May 2005-April 2006 was 10.04

The following 12 months to that 'freezathon' came in at 11.63 (ouch) - which is precisely why we are able to produce (possibly) 12 consecutive months lower than their preceeding counterpart without troubling the long term average - because we have come off the back of a period so far removed from our previous understanding of the possible that it is almost unbelievable but for the fact I recall it!

[azores92]

I wonder if we actually breached sub-10 during the 12 months to April 2006? The 12 month for May 2005-April 2006 was 10.04

The following 12 months to that 'freezathon' came in at 11.63 (ouch) - which is precisely why we are able to produce (possibly) 12 consecutive months lower than their preceeding counterpart without troubling the long term average - because we have come off the back of a period so far removed from our previous understanding of the possible that it is almost unbelievable but for the fact I recall it!

can someone answer my question please? la nina is expected to disappear by the end of the year, implying perhaps a better winter?!

[Stratos Ferric]

I wonder if we actually breached sub-10 during the 12 months to April 2006? The 12 month for May 2005-April 2006 was 10.04

The following 12 months to that 'freezathon' came in at 11.63 (ouch) - which is precisely why we are able to produce (possibly) 12 consecutive months lower than their preceeding counterpart without troubling the long term average - because we have come off the back of a period so far removed from our previous understanding of the possible that it is almost unbelievable but for the fact I recall it!

Absolutely right. The current run says more about the year that went before. 1962-3 was a genuine case of cold. In a way though, the current run is chilly by recent standards, and is a neat metaphor of what the climate is becoming. Cold used to be cold: nowadays, it seems, sustained relative cold is simply "un-warm".

The question re 2006 is worth a check.