Annual CET - 2008

[Snowly does it]

Absolutely right. The current run says more about the year that went before. 1962-3 was a genuine case of cold. In a way though, the current run is chilly by recent standards, and is a neat metaphor of what the climate is becoming. Cold used to be cold: nowadays, it seems, sustained relative cold is simply "un-warm".

The question re 2006 is worth a check.

Yes, agreed, I think it would start to become more 'significant' if it stretched into that May/June area - that would put it alongside late 05/early 06 for depth and gravtias as a 'cold event' - but we are so far from genuine cold its laughable - or it would be were it not so concerning.

Azores - I don't know the La Nina forecast, I believe it is forecast to continue, but I am not certain. What would be better would be a weak La Nina or neutral conditions and from there we could see what the Polar Vortex does - is it stuck in deep cold mode due to the Ozone? Or would a more condusive set-up (weak La Nina in general is pretty good for UK winters) allow things to progress down a more blocked route?

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average*

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average

April: 9.1C, 1C above average

May: 14.3C, 3C above average*

June: 15.4C, 1.3C above average

Q2 CET: 12.9C, 2C above average

July: 18.2C, 1.7C above average*

August: 16.2C, Average

September: 15C, 1.3C above average

Q3 CET: 16.5C, 1C above average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.99C (10.88C, 1.13C above average), 1.24C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the warmest year on record.

[reef]

For the year as a whole, i would expect precipitation to average around average, however i would expect temperatures to average around 0.5C above average, or a figure around 10.3C (0.3C margin of error)

Heres my punt...

2008 CET: 10.42C, 0.58C above average

Heres my punt...

2008 CET: 10.58C (10.73C, 0.98C above average), 0.83C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the second warmest on record.

Heres my punt...

2008 CET: 10.99C (10.88C, 1.13C above average), 1.24C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the warmest year on record.

If at first you dont succeed, try, try, try again!

Heres my punt...

with an average of 1.2 estimates per month, 2008 will see the most SB forecasts on record

I know this thread is only a bit of fun, but are so many revisions necessary?

[summer blizzard]

If at first you dont succeed, try, try, try again!

Heres my punt...

with an average of 1.2 estimates per month, 2008 will see the most SB forecasts on record

I know this thread is only a bit of fun, but are so many revisions necessary?

Monthly updates i prefer to call them.

[Stu_London]

The continuing signal for NAO and AO to go negative towards the end of March has renewed my interest in the sub 10C scenario.

March is looking more likely to come in around the 5.5 to 6.0 range.

If at the lower end an April of 8C (around average) would secure sub 10C in running. A coldish start to April which looks possible if the teleconnections are being read correctly would increase the chances greatly.

To recap what we need is

Mid March - unsettled, cool

Late March - colder

March CET 5.5C

Early April - cold,

Mid to Late April - unsettled, average to cool - no warm, very warm spells

April CET 7.8C

CET in running for year 9.96C

[West is Best]

CET in running for year 9.96C

Alas I just can't see if after such a warm start. I don't at the moment buy into the cool March 'certainty' I'm afraid. We're already 1C up for the first 1/3rd and cold is, as ever, in FI.

[Stu_London]

Alas I just can't see if after such a warm start. I don't at the moment buy into the cool March 'certainty' I'm afraid. We're already 1C up for the first 1/3rd and cold is, as ever, in FI.

It's not such a case of the warm start to the year, it's more the relatively cool summer we had.

I admit it remains an outside chance presently, however the 0z run has the sort of temps needed to get back down to low 5s - nothing warm after about +100

[Weather-history]

Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to February 2008.

2006 2007 Difference

May 12.3 11.9 (-0.4)

Jun 15.9 15.1 (-0.8]

Jul 19.7 15.2 (-4.5)

Aug 16.1 15.4 (-0.7)

Sep 16.8 13.8 (-3.0)

Oct 13.0 10.9 (-2.1)

Nov 8.1 7.3 (-0.8]

Dec 6.5 4.9 (-1.6)

2007 2008

Jan 7.0 6.6 (-0.4)

Feb 5.8 5.4 (-0.4)

Mar 7.2 ?? ??

Apr 11.2 ?? ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63

CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Feb 07: 12.12

CET for May 07-Feb 07: 10.65

A difference of -1.47C

There is a good chance that March 08 will have a CET lower than March 07 and it is going to be staggering if April 08 is warmer than April 07, so it could be quite a drop from the dizzy heights of May 06-Apr 07

Nov 94-Oct 95 CET: 11.07

Nov 95-Oct 96 CET: 9.3

A difference of -1.77

Edited March 17, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Stu_London]

Some very interesting stats there Mr D

Interesting parallel between 94-95 and the current period.

Likely to be a similar spread but 0.6C warmer

6.1 C for March would bring the annual in running CET down to 10.32C.

That would mean below 7.4C is needed for April to drag the CET under 10C in running. Unlikely I think, but I wouldn't rule out hitting sub 10C sometime during May or June, especially given the warm starts to those months.

Edited March 26, 2008 by Stu_London

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (looks to be between 5.8C and 6.3C - wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average*

June: 13.6C, 0.5C below average

Q2 CET: 11.8C, 0.8C above average

July: 18.2C, 1.7C above average*

August: 16.2C, Average

September: 15C, 1.3C above average

Q3 CET: 16.5C, 1C above average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.6C, 0.85C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the fifth warmest year on record.

[azores92]

ooooh im not sure, i think a colder winter is lying dormant and will attack, or at least i hope. how do you think the summer will pan out?

[stewfox]

That would mean below 7.4C is needed for April to drag the CET under 10C in running. Unlikely I think, but I wouldn't rule out hitting sub 10C sometime during May or June, especially given the warm starts to those months.

For those new to SETS what do you mean by this ?

10c for the year or something else ?

[Stargazer]

I think what is meant is that the running mean from, say, June 2007 to the end of May 2008 is quite likely to dip below 10 deg C (or at least at some time during May the running mean for the last year at that point may dip below 10). This is possible if we have a couple of cool months.

Edited March 31, 2008 by Stargazer

[Climate Man]

From my own records in Warwickshire, March has been the 11th consecutive month below the corresponding month in the previous year. April is almost certain to follow. If I was pro the AGW arguement and the reverse was true I expect I would be using these figures, as it is.........

[eddie]

From my own records in Warwickshire, March has been the 11th consecutive month below the corresponding month in the previous year. April is almost certain to follow. If I was pro the AGW arguement and the reverse was true I expect I would be using these figures, as it is.........

The second half of 2006 was the warmest July-Dec period ever. The first half of 2007 was the warmest Jan-June ever. They both broke the previous records for year halves by quite a margin.

I think 11 months cooler than the corresponding months the year before says more about how warm July 2006-June 2007 was than anything else.

Top 5 Jul-Dec periods

2006 13.4C

1959 12.5C

1949 12.4C

1983 12.4C

1995 12.4C

Top 5 Jan-June periods

2007 9.7C

1822 9.5C

1846 9.5C

1990 9.4C

2002 9.3C

[Snowly does it]

I think 11 months cooler than the corresponding months the year before says more about how warm July 2006-June 2007 was than anything else.

Absolutely Eddie, it demonstrates just how unusually, indeed extraordinarily, mild that period was.

Having said that, if we can get May and June below their 2007 levels (by no means impossible) then we have 14 running months of cooler temps which would be a relatively notable event - after that we are into the cool July/August combi and very unlikely to see the run continue.

The 12 months (if we include this April) are best viewed against their recent (10 year mean) - with the exception of Jan (the outlier) and June/Feb (at around their 10 year average), all the others are below their own running 10 year mean - again its proof of nothing but is an interesting sideshow nonetheless.

In other words, the relatively benign 12 months gone by could be what passes for a colder phase in the modern climate - we lucked out by getting the mild outlier in midwinter.

It could of course be the start of a longer cooling trend, but I very much doubt it - if we are progressively cooler this time next year with no extraordinary mild once again I might start playing with the figures to see whats what!

[eddie]

In other words, the relatively benign 12 months gone by could be what passes for a colder phase in the modern climate - we lucked out by getting the mild outlier in midwinter.

This is something that I wonder about quite a lot. Look at the summer of 1976 for example. Was that the warmest possible summer that the climate of the late 70s could deliver? What would happen if we got exactly the same synoptics today? What is the warmest possible summer that the climate of 2008 could deliver?

Similarly for winter 1962/3. Was that the coldest possible winter that the climate of the 60s could deliver? Are the winters we have seen lately the coldest that can be delivered in the current climate?

Unfortunately it's impossible to tell if we are just at the top of some natural warm cycle in UK weather superimposed on top of background AGW or this really is as cold as it gets here now. Time will tell. I personally think we could still see a very cold year but the odds are much reduced.

[Snowly does it]

Unfortunately it's impossible to tell if we are just at the top of some natural warm cycle in UK weather superimposed on top of background AGW or this really is as cold as it gets here now. Time will tell. I personally think we could still see a very cold year but the odds are much reduced.

Indeed

I think 95/96 is probably a good 'holy grail' to look for realistically as far as current winters go.

In terms of cold years - there is always room for gross outliers out of the blue - Feb 1986 for example, but for a complete year its asking alot. I guess best case would be a weak El Nino like 05/06 in the winter giving way to La Nina by summer (a la 07 summer) which carries through Autumn. That set-up, wothout any variation for randomness by its nature should deliver something cooler than of late, but as ever its a case of shoe horning a rag tag collection of improbables into a neat calender year.

Volcanic eruption will most likely be the actual cause of the next 'cold' year.

[Weather-history]

Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to March 2008.

2006 2007 Difference

May 12.3 11.9 (-0.4)

Jun 15.9 15.1 (-0.8]

Jul 19.7 15.2 (-4.5)

Aug 16.1 15.4 (-0.7)

Sep 16.8 13.8 (-3.0)

Oct 13.0 10.9 (-2.1)

Nov 8.1 7.3 (-0.8]

Dec 6.5 4.9 (-1.6)

2007 2008

Jan 7.0 6.6 (-0.4)

Feb 5.8 5.4 (-0.4)

Mar 7.2 6.1 (-1.1)

Apr 11.2 ?? ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63

CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Mar 07: 11.67

CET for May 07-Mar 07: 10.24

A difference of -1.43

Nov 94-Oct 95 CET: 11.07

Nov 95-Oct 96 CET: 9.3

A difference of -1.77

Interestingly if you compare May 06-April 07 with May 05-Apr 06

2005 2006 Difference

May 11.4 12.3 (+0.9)

June 15.5 15.9 (+0.4)

July 16.9 19.7 (+2.8]

Aug 16.3 16.1 (-0.2)

Sep 15.2 16.8 (+1.6)

Oct 13.1 13.0 (-0.1)

Nov 6.2 8.1 (+1.9)

Dec 4.4 6.5 (+2.1)

2006 2007

Jan 4.3 7.0 (+2.7)

Feb 3.7 5.8 (+2.1)

Mar 4.9 7.2 (+2.3)

Apr 8.6 11.2 (+3.6)

May 05-Apr 06 CET: 10.04

May 06-Apr 07 CET: 11.63

A difference of +1.59

A definite spike in the CET graph

[Climate Man]

The second half of 2006 was the warmest July-Dec period ever. The first half of 2007 was the warmest Jan-June ever. They both broke the previous records for year halves by quite a margin.

I think 11 months cooler than the corresponding months the year before says more about how warm July 2006-June 2007 was than anything else.

Top 5 Jul-Dec periods

2006 13.4C

1959 12.5C

1949 12.4C

1983 12.4C

1995 12.4C

Top 5 Jan-June periods

2007 9.7C

1822 9.5C

1846 9.5C

1990 9.4C

2002 9.3C

Hi, I agree with you and as Snowmaiden says, it is the onward trend that is important. However, please don't say "ever" as you begin to sound like Al Gore. Since records began perhaps but "ever"???!!!

[eddie]

Hi, I agree with you and as Snowmaiden says, it is the onward trend that is important. However, please don't say "ever" as you begin to sound like Al Gore. Since records began perhaps but "ever"???!!!

Mentioning Al Gore should be confined to the Climate Change subforum. Lets keep the Annual CET thread 'Al Gore free' and avoid this thread becoming a big mess like most of climate change ones have.

[kold weather]

Well whatever happens looks like this April is going to come in well below April 2007, even if the models are wrong about the colder set-up and we get upto say a 9C for the CEt by the end of the month we will still be 2C down on last April...

[Stu_London]

7.4C needed to the 12 month rolling CET to dip into sub 10C territory.

Can't be ruled out just yet given the rather cold nature of the immediate future.

[reef]

7.4C needed to the 12 month rolling CET to dip into sub 10C territory.

Can't be ruled out just yet given the rather cold nature of the immediate future.

Indeed, theres a very real shot at it right now. Even if April, May and June were all average, we'd be at 9.92C. Due to last years extreme April and warm May/June, we have quite a few degrees to play with.

To reach the same level of the trough in the 10 year mean as 2001, the next 3 months would need a mean of 0.6C below average. If April turns out to be a cold one, then that would be within reach aswell.

Edited April 5, 2008 by reef

[Stu_London]

SUB 10C ANNUAL CET WITHIN 10 DAYS ????

If we are down to 6.1C by 19th April 2008, the rolling annual CET will be 9.99C

These are based on figures for Manley, so we may need an extra 10th or so to be sure on Hadley, however model outlook looks good for this occuring

Considering some members rulled this out from ever occuring in their lifetime, it does show how we have dipped from the heights of 2006/2007 in a relatively short period.

Edited April 10, 2008 by Stu_London