Annual CET - 2008

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking at Kev's stats this April could be 3c+ down on last year. I think anyone who punted for a warm year is struggling at the moment.

Can't believe I haven't entered....10.29c...the cooldown is starting...close to ten could be on though

BFTP

Edited April 10, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[azores92]

Looking at Kev's stats this April could be 3c+ down on last year. I think anyone who punted for a warm year is struggling at the moment.

Can't believe I haven't entered....10.29c...the cooldown is starting...close to ten could be on though

BFTP

lets just hope this november and december are cold, and we have a white christmas .

[Thundery wintry showers]

A cold April could easily be wiped out by subsequent warm months, just as the cold March 2006 was.

[eddie]

It's far too early to say this year won't be a record breaker. Just remember that by the end of April, 2006 was only the 144th warmest year.

[West is Best]

If April does stay below 7.4C, which is probably on balance still pretty unlikely despite another week of cool/cold conditions to come, then we will record our first sub-10C twelve month period since 2001.

By the way it needs to be below 7.4C. 7.4C gives us 10C exactly on Hadley figures.

Edited April 15, 2008 by La Nina

[Roger J Smith]

Update ,,, back in early February I compiled a list of the annual (2008) CET predictions. There have been four additional predictions since then, so I have revised that list.

The asterisks here denote predictions made to one decimal place. No asterisk, two decimal places in the forecast.

The numbers in brackets (2) (3) or (4) give the months of late predictions. All others were made either late in 2007 (the vast majority in fact) or during January 2008.

11.20 -- Iceberg*

11.10 -- Calrissian*

10.99 -- Summer Blizzard (2) see original at 10.58 and update at 10.6

10.85 -- Mike W (said 10.6 to 11.1, this is the mid-point)

10.80 -- Magpie*

10.75 -- MK 13 and Snowman

10.70 -- Stephen Prudence*

10.67 -- Snooz

10.66 -- Optimus Prime

10.63 -- Reef

10.60 -- Summer Blizzard (3, update)

10.60 -- Roger J Smith, Eddie*

10.58 -- Summer Blizzard

10.57 -- Duncan McAlister

10.55 -- Stratos Ferric

10.50 -- Dr Hoskins*, Thundery Winter Showers (2)

10.42 -- Stargazer

10.40 -- Jemtom*, Pit*, MarkBayley*

10.37 -- Atlantic Flame Thrower

10.35 -- Snowmaiden

10.31 -- Richarddx7 (2)

10.30 -- Mr Data*, Lady Pakal*

10.29 -- Blast from the Past (4)

10.28 -- Mr Maunder

10.25 -- Mr Sleet

10.20 -- Paul Tall*, Sunshine*

10.10 -- Slipknotsam*

10.02 -- Terminal Moraine

10.00 -- Stu London*

09.90 -- Jeremy Shockey*

09.80 -- Hiya*, SteveB*

09.65 -- La Nina

09.50 -- Noggin*, GavinP*

09.20 -- Adam Jones 416

Let me know if you think I have missed a prediction.

Back in February I noted that the median forecast was 10.40. If I only count SB's latest update and not his first or second go, the current median of predictions has shifted slightly to 10.37 C.

I would now consider this the final list of predictions, I would have stopped at the end of March, but BFTP would have said about the same in January, I am quite sure from personal communication. SB can update every month if he likes but I won't be revising this list.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would now consider this the final list of predictions, I would have stopped at the end of March, but BFTP would have said about the same in January, I am quite sure from personal communication. SB can update every month if he likes but I won't be revising this list.

Thank you Roger, indeed I would have...can't understand why I didn't enter in Jan as I like the CET game.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

What damage will a very warm May do to the rolling annual CET??

[Snowly does it]

What damage will a very warm May do to the rolling annual CET??

13.9 would make the rolling 12 months about 10.20

[reef]

Yet again it looks like we are going to miss a rolling 12 month period that is sub-10C. After this month June would have to be exceptionally cold to even give us a chance. Once July arrives we've had it, as getting one colder than last year would be very difficult.

[Stu_London]

Yet again it looks like we are going to miss a rolling 12 month period that is sub-10C. After this month June would have to be exceptionally cold to even give us a chance. Once July arrives we've had it, as getting one colder than last year would be very difficult.

The next window might be Autumn, but we wouldn't be able to afford any real summer warmth for that to be a possiblility. Otherwise a cold winter 08/09 would be the next chance.

[Weather-history]

Comparison of July 2006-June 2007 CET minima with July 2007 to present CET minima (1961-90 averages)

Jul 2006: 13.9 (+2.2) 2007: 11.5 (-0.2)

Aug 2006: 12.2 (+0.8] 2007: 11.1 (-0.3)

Sep 2006: 12.8 (+3.2) 2007: 9.9 (+0.3)

Oct 2006: 9.8 (+2.6) 2007: 7.3 (+0.2)

Nov 2006: 4.7 (+1.1) 2007: 4.1 (+0.4)

Dec 2006: 4.2 (+2.2) 2007: 2.2 (+0.2)

Jan 2007: 4.3 (+3.1) 2008: 3.8 (+2.6)

Feb 2007: 2.8 (+1.9) 2008: 1.2 (+0.3)

Mar 2007: 3.3 (+1.1) 2008: 2.7 (+0.4)

Apr 2007: 5.9 (+2.0) 2008: 3.8 (-0.1)

May 2007: 7.8 (+1.1)

June 2007: 10.9 (+1.2)

Jul 2006-Apr 2007 CET minimum: 7.4 (+2.0)

Jul 2007-Apr 2008 CET minimum: 5.8 (+0.4)

Edited May 19, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Snowly does it]

Yet again it looks like we are going to miss a rolling 12 month period that is sub-10C. After this month June would have to be exceptionally cold to even give us a chance. Once July arrives we've had it, as getting one colder than last year would be very difficult.

Well, June would need to be 0.4 degrees plus whatever May is above 11.9 below last years 15.1 to get below 10!

So if May = 13.9, June needs to = 12.7

If May falls to 12.9, June needs to = 13.7

They only way we get a shot before Autumn is if the rest of May is pretty cold and we get into the 12s, then we need a cool June.....

I'd say it is now likely out of the equation until Jan/Feb 2009 unless we get a cold June and a very average July/August to set up the Autumn shot.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (was 6.1C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average (was 6C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average (was 7.9C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average* (was 13.4C, 2.1C above average - Wrong)

June: 14.6C, 0.5C above average

Q2 CET: 12.1C, 1.1C above average

July: 13C, 3.5C below average*

August: 18.2C, 2C above average*

September: 15C, 1.3C above average

Q3 CET: 15.4C, 0.1C below average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.4C, 0.65C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the seventeenth warmest year on record.

[Weather-history]

Heres my punt...

July: 13C, 3.5C below average*

.

You need to look at that because that would be the coldest July ever recorded.

[summer blizzard]

You need to look at that because that would be the coldest July ever recorded.

Indeed, while i will almost certainly raise that prediction, i am expecting a July even cooler than last year...

Has there ever been a July cooler than June??

[Weather-history]

Has there ever been a July cooler than June??

A number of times, last occasion was 1970.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (was 6.1C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average (was 6C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average (was 7.9C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average* (was 13.4C, 2.1C above average - Wrong)

June: 14.6C, 0.5C above average (looks to be between 14.1C and 14.6C - Correct)

Q2 CET: 12.1C, 1.1C above average

July: 15C, 1.5C below average*

August: 18.2C, 2C above average*

September: 12.7C, 1C below average

Q3 CET: 15.3C, 0.2C below average

October: 11.6C, 1.2C above average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 7.9C, 0.5C above average

2008 CET: 10.38C, 0.63C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be the eightenth warmest year on record.

[Roger J Smith]

You're being awfully hard on yourself there SB, May was a pretty good forecast, you had most of the anomaly covered.

[summer blizzard]

You're being awfully hard on yourself there SB, May was a pretty good forecast, you had most of the anomaly covered.

I allow myself a 0.5C margin of error, unfortunately May was 0.6C out from my prediction, so while it was good, it was just not good enougth.

[Stu_London]

The odds of a sub 10 year must have shortened a bit.

We are unlikely to be above 10.15 in running (more likely 10.1) at the end of July.

In comparison to last year we are up against a coolish August, a fairly mild Autumn and a fairly average December.

A very mild month will in the last 5 will probably rule out sub 10C, but a significantly below average month would greatly enhance the chances. Going below 10 in running is unlikely before the autumn.

[summer blizzard]

What is the rolling annual CET at the moment??

Personally, i think that things are looking quite optomistic in that this year could well be the coolest since 2001.

[Optimus Prime]

Upto the 28th July the year is 1.01c above the 62-90 average and so if that anomaly was sustained until the end of the year would end up roughly on a par with 2004 and 2005 at 10.41c.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (was 6.1C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average (was 6C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average (was 7.9C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average* (was 13.4C, 2.1C above average - Wrong)

June: 14.6C, 0.5C above average (was 13.9C, 0.2C below average - wrong)

Q2 CET: 12.1C, 1.1C above average (was 12.1C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

July: 15C, 1.5C below average* (looks to be between 16C and 16.5C - Wrong)

August: 15.5C, 0.7C below average

September: 12.7C, 1C below average

Q3 CET: 14.4C, 1.1C below average

October: 8.4C, 2C below average*

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 6.9C, 0.5C below average

2008 CET: 9.9C, 0.15C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be close to average.

[Optimus Prime]

If only a cold run like that these days, especially such a warm year so far was possible SB.