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January C.E.T


Kentish Man

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I may change this before the deadline, but as I am going to be hitting the road soon, here goes ...

After what is obviously going to be a very cold start, the month will gradually warm to near-record or even record warmth that may persist for two weeks from about the 7th to the 21st. This will climax with some furious windstorms around the 20th and 23rd, and after that a highly variable regime will develop. There could be one more shot of wintry weather in the last week.

When I put down the daily or weekly research model values and average them out, I come up with 6.7 C. If the month produces two snowfall events from that mean, it will be quite astonishing.

So anyway, I will stand on the right side of the group photo near Craig Evans (I presume) and say 6.7 -- actually I hope I'm wrong, but this is what I see today.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Last jan was 7.0c and the mildest on record, 6.7c would be the equal 2nd mildest with 1983 ands thats since 1900, I can`t see that happening myself, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

The mildest January on record was 1916, with a CET of 7.5C. The chances of that record falling, even in this day and age are very low. It would require a month composed entirely of mild weather, something even January 2007 didnt manage due to that short-lived northerly which brought snow to some.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Well the mathematics of my forecast are as follows:

First five days average 2.0 = 10 accumulated day degrees

6-7 average 5, giving 10 more for 20

8-23 very mild, average 9, 16x9 is 144 for 164

24-31 colder at 5, 8x5 = 40, giving total of 204

204/31 = 6.6 plus 0.1 for midnight high data contamination.

If not for this cold spell looming, I was starting to consider the 1916 record under threat. It still could be, watch for a whole string of very mild days mid-month with CET values near 10, with this strong high settling into the Balkans combining with the usual forcing of perigee, northern max, full moon, the Atlantic is going to set up shop and stay open 24/7. Also the cold regime over N America is currently collapsing, it's going to be a period of Pacific to Atlantic runaway jet once this next episode comes and goes. Like there could be one day of -1 CET and 30 cms of snow that melts the next day or two, but that won't affect this pattern change. The main uncertainty to me is not this very mild period but how cold it might try to get in the last week, that could hold things back to the low 6s or high 5s if it's more potent. I imagine it might be fairly weak.

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

I'm changing my CET forecast to;

3.2

Here's my *very* rough forecast January;

JANUARY:

We start January with cold weather across the UK. For the first few days of the month I expect Scandinavian, anti-cyclonic weather to dominate, with easterly winds and the risk of snow. By the Jan 5th, wet and windy weather will be breaking through from the Atlantic, but this should be short-lived as by the middle of the second week high pressure builds over the UK and through the Continent, giving a very quiet period with frost and fog.

Mid month looks cold and frosty, but dry. Soon after mid month, high pressure migrates to Scandinavia again and we pull in a very mild southerly wind for a time with rain in the west trying to nudge in.

Anytime from Jan 18th-20th winds swing into the east, and we see a very cold period, with snow showers in the east and a biting easterly wind.

By months end milder air with rain and snow should be moving up from the south-west, with the Scandinavian High beginning to retreat back east.

CET 3.2

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Changing mine to 4.0C

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

I must say La Nina, I'm also tempted to stick in the 2's, but I just think the two mild spells (5th-10th) (16th-18th/20th) will just be enough to drag the CET into the 3's, but I do think it'll be a close run thing. I'm really expecting the coldest January for quite a while in 2008. :smiliz19:

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

3.1C

Mammatus

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

3.1C for me. Cold / cool spells with short lived milder interludes.

Edit. Sorry, did not see the last entry was also 3.1C. Too late to change now though.

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i love it cold!!!! 2.0 please :smiliz19:

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

4.3C for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

I'll go for 4.2C please but not confident at all, obv. a lot depends on the big guy to our N.E (who hasnt even developed yet).

Some mild spells in there but I think another shot at perhaps a more potent cold spell a little further down the line, if this one comes to nothing.

Could be well out, so basically I've bottled it and split the difference and gone for average. ;)

Regards,

Tom.

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Posted
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl

4.9c and my scientific reasoning behind this is because I will be 49 on the 18th Jan ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

"Rojer J Smith" here again (as per December list) ... my final estimate 6.3, I am nervous about the inversion on the 28th and 29th. ;) ... and I have lots of space to operate in here in the sixes ;)

Craig, I am just handing you 7.2 and 7.3 on a plate, you've gotta love it.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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