January C.E.T

[TEITS]

My prediction is 2.9C.

[acbrixton]

My guess is 5.8.

regards

ACB

[Simon SWales]

my Guess 3.1

Simon

[IRON-BRU]

4.5c please.

[Mark H]

4.8 for me.

[Stratos Ferric]

Some very low looking punts in here. The current rolling 10 year mean is around 5.1, and you have to go back a decade to find any month in the year with a cold anomaly remotely cold enough to get us under 3.0C. Meanwhile, back in realityville the last few months have all been close to average, with La Nina now starting to decline and the Atlantic more widely warm now, though less extremely so. Recent months have combined mild interludes with anticyclonic blocks and associated cold nights in particular service to peg temperatures back.

Can't see any reason to go far from average, particularly with a mildish looking first half, though the pattern of HP nearby suggests at least some anticyclonic interludes. So, having had fingers burned last month, a more cautious:

4.8C

[kold weather]

What about March 06 compared to the 10 yr rolling mean of Marches SF...surely that must have come in close 2C below the 10 yr rolling mean?

[Snowly does it]

What about March 06 compared to the 10 yr rolling mean of Marches SF...surely that must have come in close 2C below the 10 yr rolling mean?

2.2 degrees below the rolling 10 year mean I believe - would get Jan down to just under 3

1.4 below the 30 year mean - again, marginally below 3

July 2007 would also do the trick just about against the 30 year mean anyway

Edited December 31, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Calrissian]

omg, you people currently viewing this thread are so hardcore (snowmaiden, kold weather, Stratos Ferric, Roger J Smith)

Happy New Years, you crazy CET fanatics

I think my 4.5 is a 'fair' number, given the cold blast we might get early this month, and probably a bit more near the end. It'll make last years 7+ look very icy indeed.

Calrissian: better online, than amongst the dirty masses in Trafalger Square

[Stratos Ferric]

What about March 06 compared to the 10 yr rolling mean of Marches SF...surely that must have come in close 2C below the 10 yr rolling mean?

Sorry, you're absolutely right, it came in at 2.1C under: just enough to take us to 3.0C dead.

[Snowly does it]

omg, you people currently viewing this thread are so hardcore (snowmaiden, kold weather, Stratos Ferric, Roger J Smith)

Happy New Years, you crazy CET fanatics :lol:

I think my 4.5 is a 'fair' number, given the cold blast we might get early this month, and probably a bit more near the end. It'll make last years 7+ look very icy indeed.

Calrissian: better online, than amongst the dirty masses in Trafalger Square

Happy New Year Calrissian

Hardcore indeed!

[Roger J Smith]

Happy New Year, enjoy whatever the month brings (a bit of everything and a lot of mild) .

I am not so hardcore, it is but 4 pm where I sit, and I shall not be on NW at midnight, in part because I don't want to wish Inktomi Spider a happy new year.

[West is Best]

What about March 06 compared to the 10 yr rolling mean of Marches SF...surely that must have come in close 2C below the 10 yr rolling mean?

Yep, 2.2C below. That's under two years ago, so Stratos Ferric's point falls apart.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Happy New Year, enjoy whatever the month brings (a bit of everything and a lot of mild) .

The fact the J-Field disturbance came as a surprise I think/hope your first thoughts get reset. HNY Roger

BFTP

[Hiya]

3.9

[Joneseye]

Ooops first late entry for me - I will plump for 4.8C

[SMU]

January CET-

5.0C

S

[Stratos Ferric]

Yep, 2.2C below. That's under two years ago, so Stratos Ferric's point falls apart.

Not really WiB seeing as you have to go back to 1997 to find the last time we had a month sub 3. I know you've punted low, but you really are deluding yourself. Wishing it to be cold is not about to make it happen. Months that low require persistent cold - jeez, you've spent December banging on about how cold it is and how like the 80s and we've ended up at about 5C. The pattern through the autumn has been the same, and the argument has been the same - a cold month requires persistent cold weather; you have to go back a very long time to find that happening. I'd love a 3C month as much as you, but wishing it and believing it are, nowadays, several climatic belts apart.

[Great Plum]

As ever, I have no idea and I'm late so I will go for 3.0c

[Tom D]

I'm going to go for 4.3c

I'm predicting a cold spell in mid to late January.

[Mr Maunder]

No broadband so a little late!

3.9c

MM

[Polar Continental]

Sorry another late one, i will go for 5.8c

Paul

[Stu_London]

Barring further late entries, this is the February list - over 100 entrants again!

31 pall taul -0.4

10 jimmyay 1.2

36 Timbo 1.4

114 beng 1.5

27 kippure 1.7

92 tinybill 2.0

96 Jonnie G 2.1

119 stormchaser1 2.5

110 david16 2.6

87 La Nina 2.7

63 BLAST FROM THE PAST 2.9

93 smith25 2.9

128 THE EYE IN THE SKY 2.9

74 BUSHY 3.0

146 Great Plum 3.0 -10pts

4 adamjones416 3.1

89 Mammatus 3.1

90 Norrance 3.1

130 Simon Swales 3.1

48 noggin 3.2

84 Gavin P 3.2

109 JJB McCabe-Deluxe 3.2

52 Anti-Mild 3.3

78 Snowyowl9 3.3

26 kold weather 3.4

58 Snowsure 3.4

19 Duncan McAllister 3.5

44 Sillkalven 3.5

62 zak robinson 3.5

85 Snowhope 3.5

46 Rollo 3.6

72 Glacier Point 3.6

14 Barry 3.7

16 mufc 3.7

50 mark bayley 3.8

67 damianslaw 3.8

116 Terminal Moraine 3.8

9 ghrud 3.9

51 neforum2 3.9

55 StormMad26 3.9

75 phil n.warks 3.9

99 Osborne One-Nil 3.9

107 James M 3.9

142 Hiya 3.9 -10pts

21 Lightning Hunter 4.0

24 summer blizzard 4.0

47 Lady Pakel 4.0

117 DR Hosking 4.0

54 Memories of 63 4.1

45 Snooz 4.2

98 TomSE20 4.2

125 shuggee 4.2

65 Snow Leopard 4.3

70 Cal 4.3

97 Polar Gael 4.3

112 John-Acc 4.3

123 ned 4.3

147 Tommyd1258 4.3 -10pts

20 snowmaiden 4.4

40 Optimus Prime 4.4

57 The Calm before the Storm 4.4

124 MegaMoonFlake 4.4

95 DAVID SNOW 4.5

101 Mr Data 4.5

104 RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.5

127 Calrissian 4.5

131 IRON-BRU 4.5

38 suffolkboy 4.6

69 Stargazer 4.6

94 Stu_London 4.6

115 windswept 4.6

126 Northants Snow 4.6

6 The Pit 4.7

18 osmposm 4.7

39 eddie 4.7

105 slipknotsam 4.7

43 SteveB 4.8

49 Magpie 4.8

106 Don 4.8

132 Mark H 4.8

133 Stratos Ferric 4.8

143 Joneseye 4.8 -10pts

17 sundog 4.9

35 Potent Gust 4.9

37 Paul Sherman 4.9

100 jimben 4.9

103 Nick F 4.9

108 RedShift 4.9

120 Timmy H 4.9

148 Mr Maunder 4.9 -10pts

29 ukmoose 5.0

76 tesaro 5.0

144 Steve Murr 5.0 -10pts

11 Cymru 5.1

22 Atlantic Flamethrower 5.1

68 Persian Paladin 5.1

41 chionomaniac 5.2

113 mk13 5.2

42 Matty M 5.3

53 Stephen Prudence 5.4

122 reef 5.4

23 swfc 5.5

59 Kentish Man 5.5

12 Mike W 5.8

129 acbrixton 5.8

149 Polar Continental 5.8 -10pts

7 mark forster 630 6.1

102 Roger J Smith 6.3

61 Craig Evans 8.0

Edited January 1, 2008 by Stu_London

[summer blizzard]

Stu, i changed my prediction to 4.9C, in post 64, well before the deadline..

[Roger J Smith]

I own a fairly large chunk of ground from 6.3 to 7.1, if it must be mild, let it be very mild ... OMG, I'm the new WIB, we've exchanged identities. :o