Terry Scholey's January Forecast

[Neilsouth]

January 2008 Long Range Weather Forecast for Central England:

Variable first half; much colder second; with some severe winter weather: Less cold although still raw towards end:

Some of the media headlines promising a severe January, are I feel, a little ‘over hyped’, but I wouldn’t be surprised eventually, to see the coldest January for 21 years. Historically however January is often mild, with only 23 cold ones since 1900. These follow a pattern, tending to occur almost exclusively during periods of high or low sunspot activity, particularly the latter. The stratospheric wind that can be either East or West commonly known in the trade as Q.B.O. also seems to be important. When it’s in its Easterly phase such as at present, very cold January’s occur twice as often. We are also close to or just past the sunspot minimum, therefore considerably increasing the chance of a severe January. Another factor that stood out in all the past January’s relevant to 2008 were notable cold periods close to, just before and more particularly after perigee (the moons closest approach to earth). This occurs on the 19th and coupled with a cold, frosty singularity around this time, simply fuel my suspicions even more of severe conditions in the second half. A cold snap early in the month could briefly give some snow, before a wet and windy but milder interval, quickly follows towards the end of the first week. Initially the second week could also be quite mild, but ‘blocking’ to the East should eventually bring a drop in temperature. There’ll be showers mainly around the 11th but the emphasis should be on mainly dry weather towards mid-month, with overnight frost and perhaps patchy freezing fog that could linger. Around mid-month Atlantic systems make it unsettled and breezier. As these encounter much colder air, the ‘door’ will then be open for some severe, possibly snowy weather, although less cold air may briefly bring a thaw. A bitterly cold but mainly dry spell is likely towards the final week, with sharp penetrating frost. There may be further snow around the 24th, but the month should end less cold if though dull and raw, with occasional rain or sleet. Temperature: Relatively mild at first then progressively colder, with the mean average temperature much below normal in the second half of the month. Rainfall: Wet weather most likely about the 5th/6th, 11th just after mid-month and around the 24th. Good dry spells between however, should result in below average totals in most places. Sunshine: A rather dull month seems likely, with sunny spells often hazy and generally at a premium. The final week could be particularly dull especially in the East. 1st January 2008 Terry Scholey

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ms/t/15069.aspx

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ill be a happy bugger if that comes off lol, but goes against the bbc monthly outlook and the even larger teapot trend, but its a good forecast unlike piers corbyns lol

[dogs32]

SAME SORT OF THING HAPPENED IN 1982....same direction...HEAVY SNOWFALL..AND THEY PREDICTED RAIN..

[jemtom]

January 2008 Long Range Weather Forecast for Central England:

Variable first half; much colder second; with some severe winter weather: Less cold although still raw towards end:

Some of the media headlines promising a severe January, are I feel, a little 'over hyped', but I wouldn't be surprised eventually, to see the coldest January for 21 years. Historically however January is often mild, with only 23 cold ones since 1900. These follow a pattern, tending to occur almost exclusively during periods of high or low sunspot activity, particularly the latter. The stratospheric wind that can be either East or West commonly known in the trade as Q.B.O. also seems to be important. When it's in its Easterly phase such as at present, very cold January's occur twice as often. We are also close to or just past the sunspot minimum, therefore considerably increasing the chance of a severe January. Another factor that stood out in all the past January's relevant to 2008 were notable cold periods close to, just before and more particularly after perigee (the moons closest approach to earth). This occurs on the 19th and coupled with a cold, frosty singularity around this time, simply fuel my suspicions even more of severe conditions in the second half. A cold snap early in the month could briefly give some snow, before a wet and windy but milder interval, quickly follows towards the end of the first week. Initially the second week could also be quite mild, but 'blocking' to the East should eventually bring a drop in temperature. There'll be showers mainly around the 11th but the emphasis should be on mainly dry weather towards mid-month, with overnight frost and perhaps patchy freezing fog that could linger. Around mid-month Atlantic systems make it unsettled and breezier. As these encounter much colder air, the 'door' will then be open for some severe, possibly snowy weather, although less cold air may briefly bring a thaw. A bitterly cold but mainly dry spell is likely towards the final week, with sharp penetrating frost. There may be further snow around the 24th, but the month should end less cold if though dull and raw, with occasional rain or sleet. Temperature: Relatively mild at first then progressively colder, with the mean average temperature much below normal in the second half of the month. Rainfall: Wet weather most likely about the 5th/6th, 11th just after mid-month and around the 24th. Good dry spells between however, should result in below average totals in most places. Sunshine: A rather dull month seems likely, with sunny spells often hazy and generally at a premium. The final week could be particularly dull especially in the East. 1st January 2008 Terry Scholey

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ms/t/15069.aspx

Like PC I'm sure he'll justify his forecast through todays very localised snow event, but in reality the 2nd half of January looks set to be the complete opposite to what TS predicted.