Modern Era

[Neilsouth]

Can someone tell me who started this catchphrase off , it seems to be the best words to use now... I find it tiresom that even apparant experienced forecasters on this site are using it... Example - "Lots of snow in the north east well make the most of it , its the christmas pudding" The last three years or so the words global warming was used for the lack of snow or the future forecasting of the lack of snow now its christmas pudding. When did this apparant christmas pudding start then? , 1990's what.

One person says BLING , then everyone uses it... Now one person started christmas pudding now lots of people are using it, think i'll start my own stupid words up huzzle flump

[Jack Wales]

I know what you mean but the term does sum up our weather (particularly winter) over the last 20 years quite well. It basically means that no matter what the teleconnections or drivers are, our winter synoptics are nearly always mild/zonal.

For example the 1060+mb high currently over Finalnd/W Russia would not have been brushed aside so easily by the jet a couple of decades ago, in fact a large HP cell of this nature tended to stick around for up to a month with an e'ly flow maintained over the uk.

[Optimus Prime]

Worldwide the christmas pudding probably started around 1986 but as far back as the early 1900s. For the UK probably 1998. Only 2001 was a slight blip.

[Neilsouth]

Mr data on two just said the term was being used in the 1920's and 30's , in the uk

It seems to be a cycle the world goes through , even then people said " IN THE OLD DAYS "... Look what happened years ahead like 1983 / 1979

[Weather-history]

Neil, I coined the even larger teapot phrase (although evidence has later come to light that it may have originated in the inter war years).

Ian, I am glad you corrected yourself!!

[Potent Gust]

I hate the term "even larger teapot" but I think it is because I am in denial and wish the winters were like they used to be! But sadly this is not the case

[cheeky_monkey]

I know what you mean but the term does sum up our weather (particularly winter) over the last 20 years quite well. It basically means that no matter what the teleconnections or drivers are, our winter synoptics are nearly always mild/zonal.

For example the 1060+mb high currently over Finalnd/W Russia would not have been brushed aside so easily by the jet a couple of decades ago, in fact a large HP cell of this nature tended to stick around for up to a month with an e'ly flow maintained over the uk.

thts not true...this has happened on many occasions before...just that no one remembers because it wasnt news worthy or nobody cared...but if u trawl through the charts for the last 100 winters the scenario being played out now has happened many times...so its not something that is a result of modern day synoptics.

[VillagePlank]

Hrmph!

Modern = recent

Winter = Dec,Jan,Feb

Can I claim to have invented 'Modern Summer'?

[TEITS]

For example the 1060+mb high currently over Finalnd/W Russia would not have been brushed aside so easily by the jet a couple of decades ago, in fact a large HP cell of this nature tended to stick around for up to a month with an e'ly flow maintained over the uk.

Sorry but this is wrong.

It doesn't matter whether the HP is 1060mb or 1040mb, if the centre of the HP isn't far enough W then we won't see an E,ly like the good ol days.

As for the even larger teapot I personally hate this phrase and believe its aload of rubbish.

Still the christmas pudding hasn't applied so far this winter because we have already seen a below average Dec, Cold start to Jan and within the reliable timeframe the temps are going to be below normal at times.

[Slinky]

Ian, I am gald you corrected yourself!!

its tosh. Gets me so annoyed reading that phrase in virtually every other post.

Potent gust - Winters now are no different to winters of the past.

[Roger J Smith]

even larger teapot began at the end of the last Ice Age about 8,000 years ago.

[Neilsouth]

I hate the term "even larger teapot" but I think it is because I am in denial and wish the winters were like they used to be! But sadly this is not the case

Potent Gust read that article... Even people in the early 1920's said the same thing as you

EDIT : Thanks for the debate everyone

[Optimus Prime]

the charts for the last 100 winters the scenario being played out now has happened many times...so its not something that is a result of modern day synoptics.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think it's a justifiable phrase if used sparingly, correctly and not merely to annoy.

[ukmoose]

I know what you mean but the term does sum up our weather (particularly winter) over the last 20 years quite well. It basically means that no matter what the teleconnections or drivers are, our winter synoptics are nearly always mild/zonal.

For example the 1060+mb high currently over Finalnd/W Russia would not have been brushed aside so easily by the jet a couple of decades ago, in fact a large HP cell of this nature tended to stick around for up to a month with an e'ly flow maintained over the uk.

Absolutely right, Jack. I got a lot of stick last week from several members for saying just this (and quoting Ian) but it is essentially true, like it or not. Those that don't like it refuse to believe it and dismiss it out of hand.

Coming back to this term, although irritating to some people, is useful to those of us old enough to remember winters from the sixties onwards but perhaps it only means something to us because we can recall past cold spells and snow events and the synoptics that delivered them. Comparing relatively similar situations now we can see that things have changed. It is hard for younger members to have any empathy with it because they didn't experience what came before. Most older members however should appreciate the merits of the term, even though it was perhaps coined before we realised. I guess that just goes to show that weather patterns change, always have done and will continue to do so.

Moose

[TEITS]

Here is the cause of the mild winters in recent times.

Prolonged phase of the AO!.

Now the question is has GW caused an extended prolonged phase of the AO or is this simply just a natural cycle??

[Neilsouth]

Coming back to this term, although irritating to some people, is useful to those of us old enough to remember winters from the sixties onwards but perhaps it only means something to us because we can recall past cold spells and snow events and the synoptics that delivered them.

Moose

As i said before , they said the same thing in the 1920's!. So shall i say well its the christmas pudding because i didn't get a deep freeze in the last 10years? , what if i do get a really harsh winter say in the year 2020 shall i say well this shouldn't happen its the christmas pudding. Can you see what im getting at? , its a phrase that has been used for many many years even before the greatness of 1979!. Yet i've had 25cm of snow the year before , 15cm of snow before that

[Jack Wales]

thts not true...this has happened on many occasions before...just that no one remembers because it wasnt news worthy or nobody cared...but if u trawl through the charts for the last 100 winters the scenario being played out now has happened many times...so its not something that is a result of modern day synoptics.

Hi, if you look at the winter CET (Dec, Jan, Feb average) for the last 20 years (1988/89 - Present) I think you would be hard pressed to find a run of 20 consecutive years in history with a higher average (one for Mr Data perhaps!!!).

I agree that we will always have variability and of course there were mild winters and zonal synoptics even during the mini ice age pre 1850. What I'm saying is that the synoptics which delivered very cold winters such as 1947/1963 seem more and more unlikely nowadays due to the northlerly migration of the PFJ. Regards.

[Polar Continental]

Can someone tell me who started this catchphrase off , it seems to be the best words to use now... I find it tiresom that even apparant experienced forecasters on this site are using it... Example - "Lots of snow in the north east well make the most of it , its the christmas pudding" The last three years or so the words global warming was used for the lack of snow or the future forecasting of the lack of snow now its christmas pudding. When did this apparant christmas pudding start then? , 1990's what.

One person says BLING , then everyone uses it... Now one person started christmas pudding now lots of people are using it, think i'll start my own stupid words up huzzle flump :lol:

The ‘catchphrase’/ word ‘modern’ in terms of meteorology is often miss used. I.e. ‘even larger teapot’ the term ‘Modern’ is officially used to mark start of the 20th century of meteorology, that was the beginning of the christmas pudding when it was realised that the weather could be potentially forecast. Lewis Fry Richardson said mathematical equations could be used to forecast the weather. So this is the christmas pudding.

Paul

[Duncan McAlister]

I think one point to make is that the northward migration of the PFJ is an average northward migration, not permanent, as summer 2007 can testify! In other words, it can still travel southward of its usual position to set up cold snaps, it's just less likely and less frequent.

[cheeky_monkey]

Hi, if you look at the winter CET (Dec, Jan, Feb average) for the last 20 years (1988/89 - Present) I think you would be hard pressed to find a run of 20 consecutive years in history with a higher average (one for Mr Data perhaps!!!).

I agree that we will always have variability and of course there were mild winters and zonal synoptics even during the mini ice age pre 1850. What I'm saying is that the synoptics which delivered very cold winters such as 1947/1963 seem more and more unlikely nowadays due to the northlerly migration of the PFJ. Regards.

i dont disagree with that..im just saying you cant blame this weeks failure of a large high on modern synoptics entirely.

also i think this so called even larger teapot is also accompanied by modern weather...in the 1920s the annual cets were lower than now...where as then only winters were markedly milder..today all seasons are warmer.

[Jack Wales]

Sorry but this is wrong.

It doesn't matter whether the HP is 1060mb or 1040mb, if the centre of the HP isn't far enough W then we won't see an E,ly like the good ol days.

As for the even larger teapot I personally hate this phrase and believe its aload of rubbish.

Still the christmas pudding hasn't applied so far this winter because we have already seen a below average Dec, Cold start to Jan and within the reliable timeframe the temps are going to be below normal at times.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. a 1060mb high genereally speaking would have greater 'reach' than 1040mb. Secondly I believe that the location of the HP cell is slightly displaced to the east due to the strong N'ly PFJ as teleconnections support a scandi high. Similar synoptics from the 60's and 80's in particular often resulted in the PFJ tracking south underneath the high allowing a 'proper' e'ly flow over the uk. This also encouraged heights over greenland and the 'holy grail screnario' which we never see now.

[TEITS]

The problem with these types of threads is when we look at the archive charts we only see the actual charts that occured rather than any failed E,lys.

I do accept our winters have changed when compared to the decades of the 60,70,80s but I believe the reason for this has been a stronger Jet, PFJ slightly further N and all of these are because of the +AO phase.

I believe another 78/79,87,91 type of cold spell will occur in the future and it isn't a case of if but when!

[Weather-history]

i dont disagree with that..im just saying you cant blame this weeks failure of a large high on modern synoptics entirely.

Agree

Here's from Jan 1933, a huge pressure

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19330119.gif

Notice how it is struggling against the Atlantic overriding it to the NW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19330121.gif

[jethro]

Can I please ask all you learned people to cast your eyes over these two links and voice an opinion on whether or not this could hold some clues? Mr. D, how do the graphs in the Hartmann paper tie in with weather and synoptics over here, can you see any links?

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/PDO.html

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ResearchProje...dler%202005.pdf