Modern Era

[Stratos Ferric]

So that is 4 sub 4C winter months out of 22 since December 2000 ? Can anyone replicate another seven year period when that has been 'beaten' ?

It's actually worse than that Ian. The last thirty winter months before this year have produced only 4 sub 4's c.f. the thirty year rolling average (the rolling average in a warming climate SHOULD make this more easy to achieve - otherwise, making the step in refernce period only every ten years, year ten in the sequence is carrying the burden not only of the thirty years' warming in the reference period, but the additional ten years since the last step).

1730-39 runs it closest wqith 6, thought there were also four more bang on 4.0. 1967-76 runs it close too, with seven such months, but also with one exceptionally warm month - Dec 75 and its 8.1C. 1919-28 had eight.

Nudge the boundary down to 3 and the picture is even more stark.

[Stratos Ferric]

Nor is January looking particularly mild, as things sit.

I am not sure how the debate around the current run moves forward - the fact that it is 'average' is of course an acknowledgement that it is not 'modern' - as 'modern' is running very much above 'average' - the terms are rather confusing as we relate the current warmed conditions to an historic cooler mean - thus when things are 'average' in a warming period, they are actually 'ccol' - as evidenced by the 10 year mean only being breached once since May, thats when referenced against the reality on the ground.

If this continued for 10 years we could say temps are only really around average, but we would also conclude GW in the UK was dead in the water for the time being and we were as we had always been. Hence the run is significant the longer it goes on (yes, that IS tempered somewhat by the lack of cold - a March 2006 and another very cold month in this run and it would be interesting anyway)

Nope. My point re modern is NOT that the weather is persistently mild. It is simply that we no longer get the cold, whether in intensity or duration, that we used to do.

In many ways this does not matter, however the interesting point about being close to 0C is that being the phase change point for water, a slight change of temperatre can have dramatic effects in terms of the weather we experience - and winter has essentially the same palette of base ingredients as any other season, save for this one potential difference - water can sometimes be frozen. YOu can say this doesn't matter of course, or that I'm deluding myself, but I offer you the model thread and cold snap thread, both before and after this week's events, as clear evidence of the fact that it DOES matter to ratehr a lot of people: whether it should or not is a different matter.

If we take that away then, in essence, it matters little whether January averages 6C or 8C or 10C; rain and wind is just that whatever the ambient temperature.

[J10]

They do still have the Pools Panel and some games have been called off this season, but mostly for waterlogged pitches. I wonder if anyone has a list of the number of games called off in a season for weather related reasons, it is pretty obvious what it will show, but it would be interesting none the less.

[Stratos Ferric]

As was hinted last night by little old me, the term "even larger teapot/Era" is a journalists dream. ....

If at all interested, Solar Cycle 24 has now officially begun - the peak is apparently Aug 2012 - an active Sun should put pay to some of you on here, and your little alarmists fantasies.

What alarmist fantasies. I see no alarm in this thread, other than from those who seem to think that the biggest fear life has to offer is the threat of winters with little or no snowfall.

They do still have the Pools Panel and some games have been called off this season, but mostly for waterlogged pitches. I wonder if anyone has a list of the number of games called off in a season for weather related reasons, it is pretty obvious what it will show, but it would be interesting none the less.

I may do a search. I'm sure there was at least one instance of a season having to be extended beyond the original calendar.

[Nick H]

They do still have the Pools Panel and some games have been called off this season, but mostly for waterlogged pitches. I wonder if anyone has a list of the number of games called off in a season for weather related reasons, it is pretty obvious what it will show, but it would be interesting none the less.

Mr Data did a similar exercise for the number of days washed out in Test matches played in England. It is in the Historic Weather section but on first glance I couldn't find it. I remember commenting that it showed a marked fall in number of washouts after 1981 - the last year when we played on uncovered wickets.

Edited January 4, 2008 by Nick H

[Snowly does it]

Nope. My point re modern is NOT that the weather is persistently mild. It is simply that we no longer get the cold, whether in intensity or duration, that we used to do.

In many ways this does not matter, however the interesting point about being close to 0C is that being the phase change point for water, a slight change of temperatre can have dramatic effects in terms of the weather we experience - and winter has essentially the same palette of base ingredients as any other season, save for this one potential difference - water can sometimes be frozen. YOu can say this doesn't matter of course, or that I'm deluding myself, but I offer you the model thread and cold snap thread, both before and after this week's events, as clear evidence of the fact that it DOES matter to ratehr a lot of people: whether it should or not is a different matter.

If we take that away then, in essence, it matters little whether January averages 6C or 8C or 10C; rain and wind is just that whatever the ambient temperature.

Fair enough. I have no argument re warming experienced, but I still think there is more to be looked at with the flips and blips, but I'll leave that until its gone on a bit longer.

P.S. nowhere in this last spell failed to see snow due to marginality as far as I am aware - I.E there was no 'oh its raining', or very little - its just that the SE did not get the band of ppn that was expected.

Of course we can then argue whether the (lack of) duration is down to some gubbins about the PFJ and all but thats for another thread/time.

Edited January 4, 2008 by snowmaiden

[chionomaniac]

They do still have the Pools Panel and some games have been called off this season, but mostly for waterlogged pitches. I wonder if anyone has a list of the number of games called off in a season for weather related reasons, it is pretty obvious what it will show, but it would be interesting none the less.

The first panel was set up in the winter of 1963 after the pools companies had been losing money hand over fist after 3 successive pools coupons had been wiped out by postponements caused by the weather. It was set up with "The Five Just Men" - retired footballers Ted Drake, Tom Finney, Tommy Lawton and George Young, and retired referee Arthur Ellis.

They first sat on Saturday 26 January 63. They were paid £100 each for there trouble and met many times for the remainder of that winter. I am sure that if they had a pools panel before that winter it would win in the most sittings category!

c

[Stratos Ferric]

Fair enough. I have no argument re warming experienced, but I still think there is more to be looked at with the flips and blips, but I'll leave that until its gone on a bit longer.

P.S. nowhere in this last spell failed to see snow due to marginality as far as I am aware - I.E there was no 'oh its raining', or very little - its just that the SE did not get the band of ppn that was expected.

Of course we can then argue whether the (lack of) duration is down to some gubbins about the PFJ and all but thats for another thread/time.

I think you'll find Stu had a different perspective, but he's in central London.

[kold weather]

The that has been interesting so far this winter has been the way the poler vortex has constantly been split, its happened now a few times this winter and its not something I recall happening in other recent winters, at least not to the extent. This is probably due to there not being one truely dominant PV and the PV we have had seems to have been on the move.

What I've also noticed is the SE airflow we had in December didn't appear any milder then what you'd have expected in past set-ups in December, we stil laveraged a 15 day period around 1.6-1.8C and thats out without any decent cold air circulating the high pressure either, in other words it was pretty much homebred.

The real problem in recent winters is that the atlantic has modified everything and it seems in nearly every single even larger teapot we've had periods where mild zonality has dominated for at least 2 weeks and ruined amny cold pooling. Whilst this may yet be the case this winter as well the fact we are getting cut-off lows popping up at least keeps the chances of this lower.

[West is Best]

So that is 4 sub 4C winter months out of 22 since December 2000 ? Can anyone replicate another seven year period when that has been 'beaten' ?

I was responding to Stratos Ferric's factually incorrect assertion that we 'cannot even achieve a sub 4C month nowadays'. In fact we've had 4 since 2001.

There have been numerous other occasions of similar note. From December 1970 to December 1976 there was only 1 sub 4C month. That six year stretch of only one such month far outstrips the 'modern' era. But there's nothing like a good dose of hagiography is there? The first half of the 1970's was dominated by mild winters. The Pools Panel frequently sat for muddy water-logged pitches caused by the incessantly mild weather ...

I was under the impression that the December CET was 4.9, making it just below average.

Yes it was.

The second half of 2007 ran 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean. And if anyone wishes to try and pretend otherwise:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadCET_act.txt

December was 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.35C below the rolling 10 year mean.

Edited January 5, 2008 by La Nina

[Paul Sherman]

Fair enough. I have no argument re warming experienced, but I still think there is more to be looked at with the flips and blips, but I'll leave that until its gone on a bit longer.

P.S. nowhere in this last spell failed to see snow due to marginality as far as I am aware - I.E there was no 'oh its raining', or very little - its just that the SE did not get the band of ppn that was expected.

Of course we can then argue whether the (lack of) duration is down to some gubbins about the PFJ and all but thats for another thread/time.

Sorry SnowMaiden, I did'nt report it as I did not deem it worthy enough....................But

Central London had rain from about 2-5pm on Thursday Afternoon from the frontal Band, not 1 flake seen since Feb 2007!

Paul S

[Stratos Ferric]

I was responding to Stratos Ferric's factually incorrect assertion that we 'cannot even achieve a sub 4C month nowadays'. In fact we've had 4 since 2001.

There have been numerous other occasions of similar note. From December 1970 to December 1976 there was only 1 sub 4C month. That six year stretch of only one such month far outstrips the 'modern' era. But there's nothing like a good dose of hagiography is there? The first half of the 1970's was dominated by mild winters.

Yes it was.

The second half of 2007 ran 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean. And if anyone wishes to try and pretend otherwise:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadCET_act.txt

December was 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.35C below the rolling 10 year mean.

WiB, during autumn weren't you dismissing a margin of 0.2C above the norm as "about average". I wish you'd stop flip-flopping to suit your argument.

I've already apologised for the previous factual oversight. You're correct that 1971-6 went without a single 4C winter month. Now, can you find me another period of 20 winters with so few (14) - happy hunting. Statistical expert that you are you'll know that there are far more degree of freedom around 18 months than there are around a consecutive run of 60.

I sometimes think you'd argue with a roadsign WiB, or are you honestly suggesting that nowadays winters are just as they used to be?

[West is Best]

I've already apologised for the previous factual oversight.

Thank you. Apology accepted.

[cheeky_monkey]

Monkey, have you actually bothered to check any data? I get astonished by the tendency of some on N-W to make bold statements that are so far removed the reality as to be beyond risible. There has been no period of sustained winter warmth of the like we have seen in the last ten years in the measured CET record. The 20's ran it close, but managed a couple of winters when the D-F average came in sub 4. 1996 is the last time it happened. IN the 60s 3C was rarely breached - and, amrk this, that was the average across three months - we can't even register a sub four month nowadays. Let's stop this nonsense that 'it's happened before'. It has not, not even remotely, not in the measured record.

maybe you should read my post properly before going off on one!...i wasnt talking about the mildness of winters passed etc...i was talking in reply about the synoptic situation that has jus occured..not winter cets or anything else..just one synoptic set up!!!

[Stratos Ferric]

The that has been interesting so far this winter has been the way the poler vortex has constantly been split, its happened now a few times this winter and its not something I recall happening in other recent winters, at least not to the extent. This is probably due to there not being one truely dominant PV and the PV we have had seems to have been on the move.

What I've also noticed is the SE airflow we had in December didn't appear any milder then what you'd have expected in past set-ups in December, we stil laveraged a 15 day period around 1.6-1.8C and thats out without any decent cold air circulating the high pressure either, in other words it was pretty much homebred.

The real problem in recent winters is that the atlantic has modified everything and it seems in nearly every single even larger teapot we've had periods where mild zonality has dominated for at least 2 weeks and ruined amny cold pooling. Whilst this may yet be the case this winter as well the fact we are getting cut-off lows popping up at least keeps the chances of this lower.

Agree. Some notable others on here disliked Steve Murr's suggestion that the cold was artificial. Looked at another way, Lamb would have described the weather as "anticyclonic"; at this time of year stagnant air is going to cool from radiative forcing. A few of our recent cold spells have been thus and, I would suggest, disporportionately fewer from air masses of genuinely cold nature. It's certainly undeniable that it's ages since we had sustained cold from a polar or arctic airmass, although in late winter recent winters have often given a 5-10 burst of something close - if not quite so cold as might once have been the case.

[West is Best]

WiB, during autumn weren't you dismissing a margin of 0.2C above the norm as "about average".

Philip Eden considers 0.2C to be within the margin of error. I don't think the Met Office have adopted this however. I think there's some mileage in it, but important to note that this refers to a month, not a season or a series of months when a margin of 0.1C or 0.2C becomes much more statistically meaningful and less prone to margin of error. As a wannabee statistician you should follow that.

... are you honestly suggesting that nowadays winters are just as they used to be?

We had a mild batch in the early naughties, then a cold period two years ago: that's the one during which you made one of your other errors on saying there was no recent 2C below month (did you also apologise for that mistake?). I genuinely think it's interesting that we've come into another winter slightly below on the back of a 6 month cool down.

[Stratos Ferric]

maybe you should read my post properly before going off on one!...i wasnt talking about the mildness of winters passed etc...i was talking in reply about the synoptic situation that has jus occured..not winter cets or anything else..just one synoptic set up!!!

Yes, but the post you were responding to wasn't talking about the situation that has just occurred, and I did read all the post thank you. I think my point stands, the synoptics that tend to prevail nowadays cannot possible be the same. If we had the same synoptics, and all else was unchanged, we'd get the same weather. The simple fact is, as many in this thread point out, we get cold source air far less frequently, and with less sustained vigour, than we used to. In addition, some air masses are nowadays further modified.

You're one step from the "bad luck" argument that one or two on here peddle. I'm sorry, but weather is not about luck.

[West is Best]

The simple fact is, as many in this thread point out, we get cold source air far less frequently, and with less sustained vigour, than we used to. In addition, some air masses are nowadays further modified.

Unfortunately although you continue to beat this drum it doesn't fit the facts, either in terms of the past or the present.

It may all come right for you again SF if things warm back up, but I think you're in danger of making a fool of yourself on here trying to flog this one. We're in a relatively cool period that, whilst not exceptional by any means, is at least in keeping with many other such periods in the past. Furthermore, in the context of what preceded it is significant. With hindsight it may prove no more than a little blip. Or it may be the start of something really significant. Or neither.

Edited January 5, 2008 by La Nina

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's a great question actually, for anyone younger than 25, what their yardstick for a real winter experience (in this country!) is. Anyone under 16 really doesn't have a chance.

My main yardstick is winter 1993/94, which was a rather snowy winter for Tyne & Wear, notably late November, late December and especially mid to late February. For most people, especially in north-west England, the only snowy winter in the last two decades was 1995/96, but in Tyne & Wear it was merely close to the long-term average, and less snowy than 1993/94.

February 1991 provided a big dumping- my first ever memory of snow- but I was too young to really appreciate it.

There have been some near-average winters for snow in recent years (for most parts, 2000/01, 2003/04 and 2005/06), but nothing that I'd call snowy, maybe 2000/01 might just make the cut for parts of Scotland.

I don't think any recent winter compares with many of those of 1978-87. The 1978-87 decade was certainly unusual for having many prolonged cold spells, and in particular a record run of cold Februarys, but snow-wise, the 1940s and 1950s were probably at least as snowy overall. I agree with ACBrixton that the decade 1988-97 was not all that unusual (indeed in the mid 1990s I was quite satisfied with the state of British winters); since 1998 the trend has accelerated to unprecedented levels.

Edited January 5, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers

[Stratos Ferric]

Unfortunately although you continue to beat this drum it doesn't fit the facts, either in terms of the past or the present.

It may all come right for you again SF if things warm back up, but I think you're in danger of making a fool of yourself on here trying to flog this one. We're in a relatively cool period that, whilst not exceptional by any means, is at least in keeping with many other such periods in the past. Furthermore, in the context of what preceded it is significant. With hindsight it may prove no more than a little blip. Or it may be the start of something really significant. Or neither.

WiB, it's not a matter of "things coming right for me". The simple fact is that the current period is the anomalous one. If you're going to suggest that the recent pattern of climate is over because of eight months of near average temperatures then I would suggest that you're the one who's the fool. I think I've been more than willing to engage you re this point, and as I keep repeating, the analysis is unashamedly up there for all to see in the analysis partition. When we get a long run of cool and when period means start top drift down towards what we were seeing in the 80s then, and only then, will there be a case for saying that the warming is over. AT present the past eight months are still noweher near making a dent in the excpetional warmth that went before. Even if you add in the cold of 2006 we're still well ahead of where we were. LIke I keep saying, we still get some cool months, but these are nothing like as extreme as the warm ones are. In the last ten winters the six most anomalous months (c.f. rolling 30) have ALL been warm anomalies; the first cold one is tied 7th. Use the ten year rolling and there are nine months at >1C above, only five at >1C below, and four of the top five are cold, with the first cold one tied fourth.

[Bobby]

As was hinted last night by little old me, the term "even larger teapot/Era" is a journalists dream. The red tops love it, the broads love it too, except they will delve deeper. It's a silly little phrase that should be hidden away like "Man-made Global Warming" should. Whoever constructed the term should be brought forward pronto and explain why?

Honestly, this society of ours nowadays needs to grow some balls and not be spoon fed with such clap trap. The media are notorious for this, especially the BBC. You only have to see yesterdays headlining "2007 2nd warmest ever". So what??? They forget 2006 altogether in their little documentation - 2006 of course, was cooler than this year - this year, however, is when the global warming bandwagon really did start to show its true colours (and it's sickening)

If at all interested, Solar Cycle 24 has now officially begun - the peak is apparently Aug 2012 - an active Sun should put pay to some of you on here, and your little alarmists fantasies.

That really is another low, really is. Sad.

To even consider we are cooling when we've had the warmest 2 years on record and the 2nd warmest year ever recorded last year is quite frankly ridiculous, unless you consider 6 months of relatively average temperatures as sign of a long term change in our climate...

Edited January 5, 2008 by Magpie

[Jonnie G]

Nudge the boundary down to 3 and the picture is even more stark.

True, although I think mr Data might confirm that there were month long periods below 3 from mid feb-mid march of both 2005 and 2006.

[Bobby]

It's a great question actually, for anyone younger than 25, what their yardstick for a real winter experience (in this country!) is. Anyone under 16 really doesn't have a chance.

I'm under 25 and the only winter I can really remember looking and back and thinking "wow, now that was a winter" is 1995-1996. I don't really remember anything else.

[Stratos Ferric]

True, although I think mr Data might confirm that there were month long periods below 3 from mid feb-mid march of both 2005 and 2006.

Indeed, though redrawing the boundaries doesn't really change the overall mean does it?Displacing cold and rebundling it just leaves the remained proportionately warmer.

I'm under 25 and the only winter I can really remember looking and back and thinking "wow, now that was a winter" is 1995-1996. I don't really remember anything else.

1995 is the last winter that I would consider remotely snowy. My erstwhile partner was even snowed in twice, high on the Pennines, but then she did live half a mile off the nearest road down a track with a 1:4 incline at its steepest. It was also snowing the morning my first born arrived, in late March!

[Jonnie G]

True, although I think mr Data might confirm that there were month long periods below 3 from mid feb-mid march of both 2005 and 2006.

Perhaps the 30 day rolling average together with the seasonal average would be the best stats to look at. Afterall, monthly bondaries are random.