December CET

[noggin]

I suppose I've lost my 2nd place then?

[Stu_London]

I hate to break this to everyone because it opens an enormous can of worms, but the 'official' Manley figure (where the 5.06C) was extracted from, differs from the figure we have used in no less than 5 of last 6 months: -

Month Official Figure Figure used in CET Comp

Jun-07 15.5 15.4

Jul-07 15.3 15.3

Aug-07 15.7 15.6

Sep-07 14 13.9

Oct-07 11.15 11.0

Nov-07 7.3 7.2

This obviously creates an integrity problem with the whole CET contest for last year.

At the start of the December CET threat that it had been suggested that we review where we get our data from but this was dismissed by one member who spoke for everyone (I assume everyone PM'd him??? )

We need to sort this out quickly. My suggestion would be to leave last year as it is and adopt the figure published by Hadley (not Hadops) usually on the 2nd/3rd of the month

As Richard has stated elsewhere, this is the figure that usually* goes down in history as the CET for the month.

* if Hadley change the figure months later then we still use the figure published immediately at the month end (only ever happened once since i have been following it anyway in Feb 06

[Anti-Mild]

As many have mentioned there can be revisions to the figure months after the fact. I reckon the fairest (and best) way is to take the first figure shown on Climate UK for the month in question. So, as soon as it says "CET: (January 1-31):x.xC (+/-x.xC)", as an example, that is the figure that ought to be used in the competition.

[Stu_London]

As many have mentioned there can be revisions to the figure months after the fact. I reckon the fairest (and best) way is to take the first figure shown on Climate UK for the month in question. So, as soon as it says "CET: (January 1-31):x.xC (+/-x.xC)", as an example, that is the figure that ought to be used in the competition.

Well that would br 4.9, not 5.1, so we really need to sort out where we are going with this

[Joneseye]

Is there not?

I thought a years NW extra went to the winner

would have been nice...

[Stu_London]

would have been nice...

Check post #51 of the December 2006 CET thread - it's in the archives section - I would have linked but can't for some reason

[Kentish Man]

There's us thinking it was a one-off late adjustment by Manley. :wacko:

Has Jackone still got the original Dec month-end competition spreadsheet?

If he has I'd take those figures and go with Hadley in future given as Stu points out they are the official CET figures.

[J10]

Last years figures are available as are all of the spreadsheets. To be honest I really see no benefit in going back and recalculating them, the competition is now over.

To be fair the figures used for last year were consistently applied based on month end figure on Climate UK (Manley) at that time. And as these were agreed as the figures to be used, then there was no problem as they were correct, regardless of whether they subsequently changed.

As a result there is no integrity issue with the yearly competition which ended in November 2007.

As an analogy, certain fantasy football competitions use figures given at the time, regardless of whether a red card is rescinded.

But we do need to decide on what figures to use, and to that end I have issued a poll and I will go with the option with the highest number of votes when the poll closes on Thursday.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...c=44533&hl=

[Optimus Prime]

Jack;

If you chose to go back to the months end figures for December and you haven't got a copy I saved the previous calculation to my desktop in case something went wrong.

[J10]

All spreadsheets are saved going back to March 2007, but thanks for the offer.

[chionomaniac]

Last years figures are available as are all of the spreadsheets. To be honest I really see no benefit in going back and recalculating them, the competition is now over.

To be fair the figures used for last year were consistently applied based on month end figure on Climate UK (Manley) at that time. And as these were agreed as the figures to be used, then there was no problem as they were correct, regardless of whether they subsequently changed.

As a result there is no integrity issue with the yearly competition which ended in November 2007.

As an analogy, certain fantasy football competitions use figures given at the time, regardless of whether a red card is rescinded.

But we do need to decide on what figures to use, and to that end I have issued a poll and I will go with the option with the highest number of votes when the poll closes on Thursday.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...c=44533&hl=

Is the Manley CET figure (month end figure) the one from Philip Eden on climate uk?

Thanks

c

[J10]

Is the Manley CET figure (month end figure) the one from Philip Eden on climate uk?

Thanks

c

Fair point, it relates to the CET figure on the final day of the month on this page, http://www.climate-uk.com/

Whereas, the Revised figure relates to this figure, http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Hope this helps.

[chionomaniac]

Fair point, it relates to the CET figure on the final day of the month on this page, http://www.climate-uk.com/

Whereas, the Revised figure relates to this figure, http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Hope this helps.

Thanks I can vote now!

[Polar Gael]

Sterling work, Jack.

One minor point of order: I should have been deducted 10 points for my late entry for December's competition and this doesn't appear to have found its way onto the results spreadsheet. Would be obliged if you could amend.

Cheers,

PG

[J10]

Sterling work, Jack.

One minor point of order: I should have been deducted 10 points for my late entry for December's competition and this doesn't appear to have found its way onto the results spreadsheet. Would be obliged if you could amend.

Cheers,

PG

Hi PG

Sorry about that I had missed it off, and Thank you for being so honest.

I have revised the spreadsheet, but the change is so minor, and your overall position has only slightly changed.

[Polar Gael]

No worries.

[Stratos Ferric]

Last years figures are available as are all of the spreadsheets. To be honest I really see no benefit in going back and recalculating them, the competition is now over.

To be fair the figures used for last year were consistently applied based on month end figure on Climate UK (Manley) at that time. And as these were agreed as the figures to be used, then there was no problem as they were correct, regardless of whether they subsequently changed.

As a result there is no integrity issue with the yearly competition which ended in November 2007.

As an analogy, certain fantasy football competitions use figures given at the time, regardless of whether a red card is rescinded.

But we do need to decide on what figures to use, and to that end I have issued a poll and I will go with the option with the highest number of votes when the poll closes on Thursday.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...c=44533&hl=

Quite agree Jacko, and my point remains, it's easy for people to chunter (though, I should add, very few are) but it would be good if those same people would actually consider the not insignificant voluntary effort that goes into compiling the results. Chopping and changing is a faf, so it strikes me that we must decide whether we want early results - which might differ slightly from the final Manley figure - or accurate ones. We cannot have both.

As Jack-o infers, so long as we are playing by the agreed rules (and so far as I'm aware we are) then I really can't see what the fuss is about.

[chionomaniac]

Quite agree Jacko, and my point remains, it's easy for people to chunter (though, I should add, very few are) but it would be good if those same people would actually consider the not insignificant voluntary effort that goes into compiling the results.

Looking at the spreadsheets, that is some amount of work, so thanks from me.

One point regarding the poll that I have noticed is that 41 votes have been cast so far but the bottom counter only reads 37.

Is there a simple explaination for this?

c

[Guest Mike W]

JUst in case it hasn't been mentioned before, The Manley figure has been finaliosed on mr Eden's site as 5.06, which I'm guessing would be translated as 5.1. : http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

[Stratos Ferric]

JUst in case it hasn't been mentioned before, The Manley figure has been finaliosed on mr Eden's site as 5.06, which I'm guessing would be translated as 5.1. : http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Well spotted Mike. Not sure anyone had picked that one up. We are nothing if not a diligent bunch here on N-W!

Looking at the spreadsheets, that is some amount of work, so thanks from me.

One point regarding the poll that I have noticed is that 41 votes have been cast so far but the bottom counter only reads 37.

Is there a simple explaination for this?

c

My votes always count 5!

[mk13]

Can anyone tell me what the Netweather final December CET was (under datacentre), as I am keeping a record of this for future reference.

Thanks in advance.

Mark