Have we actually Forgotten what cold is

[snowsure]

That's right, but at least they DID happen at least occasionally. Let's not delude ourselves. There hasn't been a snow event in my recent memory - and arguably right back to 1997 - that comes anywhere near the events recalled on here. Before 1988 more winters had decent events than did not, and some winters had more than one.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...r;type=winthist could be an interesting point to consider.

I do not wish to question the integrity of the link (Written by D.Fauvell and I.Simpson) What I do wish to do is question peoples false memories regarding the winters of our youth.

This states clearly that 1970-1976 had very little snow. (Did the 3-day week affect the weather patterns in the early 70's?)

1980's had 4 snowy winters

1990's had 4 snowy winters

2000-2006 has had 3 snowy winters.

Also note this story from 2005 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1819000,00.html

When I was 10 I used to visit a house with a huge pond. 25 years later, I re-visited the pond. It was tiny. My memory of it was based on my 10 year old world. I hope that you see my point.

[Thundery wintry showers]

According to my analysis of nationwide UK snowiness, the issue isn't that the snowless winters are getting even more snowless (they aren't, e.g. no winter in the past 15 years was as snowless as 1991/92, which in itself was comparable to a few winters from earlier decades). The issue is that the winters on the snowy side of average are getting less snowy.

For example, averaged nationally, 1995/96 was the snowiest winter of the last two decades, yet the winters of the period 1978-87, and the decade 1950-59, were on average about as snowy as 1995/96 was. The decade 1940-49 was admittedly exceptional, boosted by severe winters in 1940, 1941, 1942 and 1947, but its winters were on average snowier than 1995/96. The 1940s and 1950s both contained a few snowless winters to rival the most snowless of recent winters, but there were also severe countrywide snow events that we just don't get nowadays.

Taking the more snowless decades 1920-29 and 1930-39, while the prevailing synoptics were similar to those of today, and there were a number of largely snowless winters during that decade, you'll find that what few snowy winters there were, tended to be much snowier than the "snowy" winters we get these days.

This is also highlighted in the Brocanica series, updated nowadays by Dave O'Hara, which shows quite a number of "Snowy" winters occurred up to 1985, but since then, only one winter made the "Snowy" classification.

[snowsure]

According to my analysis of nationwide UK snowiness, the issue isn't that the snowless winters are getting even more snowless (they aren't, e.g. no winter in the past 15 years was as snowless as 1991/92, which in itself was comparable to a few winters from earlier decades). The issue is that the winters on the snowy side of average are getting less snowy.

For example, averaged nationally, 1995/96 was the snowiest winter of the last two decades, yet the winters of the period 1978-87, and the decade 1950-59, were on average about as snowy as 1995/96 was. The decade 1940-49 was admittedly exceptional, boosted by severe winters in 1940, 1941, 1942 and 1947, but its winters were on average snowier than 1995/96. The 1940s and 1950s both contained a few snowless winters to rival the most snowless of recent winters, but there were also severe countrywide snow events that we just don't get nowadays.

Taking the more snowless decades 1920-29 and 1930-39, while the prevailing synoptics were similar to those of today, and there were a number of largely snowless winters during that decade, you'll find that what few snowy winters there were, tended to be much snowier than the "snowy" winters we get these days.

This is also highlighted in the Brocanica series, updated nowadays by Dave O'Hara, which shows quite a number of "Snowy" winters occurred up to 1985, but since then, only one winter made the "Snowy" classification.

Paragraph 1 is a good point. If a winter has no snow, it cannot get any less snowy.

Para 2: Perhaps it is better to look at 1970-79 and 1980-89 rather than looking at the snow paradise of 1978-87. Can you still draw the conclusion that they were comparable with 1995/96? Looking at bonacina I assume not.

What effect has the urban heat island had on our ability to have sustained cold?

[suffolkboy_]

I still don't think a very cold spell, or even a severe cold spell is completely out of the question this winter. Unlikely, but not impossible.

The winter of 1947 didn't really get going until the very end of January, and even then the brunt of it was February. Look at this brilliant site to have a look at just how awesome that winter was. http://www.winter1947.co.uk/

Edited January 12, 2008 by suffolkboy_

[Thundery wintry showers]

Paragraph 1 is a good point. If a winter has no snow, it cannot get any less snowy.

Para 2: Perhaps it is better to look at 1970-79 and 1980-89 rather than looking at the snow paradise of 1978-87. Can you still draw the conclusion that they were comparable with 1995/96? Looking at bonacina I assume not.

What effect has the urban heat island had on our ability to have sustained cold?

No, the decades 1970-79 and 1980-89 were not, on average, as snowy as winter 1995/96- although on average they were snowier than the decades 1990-99 and 2000-07. I did, though, mention two decades (1940s, 1950s) which did make this distinction.

I don't think the urban heat island has affected the UK's ability to have sustained cold at all, all it does is it means a higher percentage of people live in areas where temperatures are often 1-2C higher (especially at night) than at most of the official Met Office observing stations.

I do think it's still possible to get a severely cold and snowy spell- after all, a fairly half-hearted south-easterly on 3 January delivered quite a dumping to Northern Ireland and inland parts of the northeast, and brought some impressive snow showers even to some east-coast fringes. Even cold zonality is capable of delivering a lot of snow to the north, if we can manage a setup with relatively high pressure to the NW and thus a shorter track over the Atlantic. But I suspect that the required synoptics, as well as being less cold than they used to be, are harder to get because of the higher SSTs and associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

What effect has the urban heat island had on our ability to have sustained cold?

None in the period since the late 70s. We are hardly any more urbanised now than we were then, and as the name suggests, it's an inner city phenomenon anyway, and which is at its most marked on clear, still nights: not exactly ideal conditions for snow.

[WhiteFox]

It'll come back. It's all cyclical.They had ludicrously warm winters in Henry VIII's reign. It's only a matter of time before serious cold returns. Indeed, the US is currently in the grip of a very severe winter.

Again, it's all relative. It would be severe in the UK, but over here...

Below normal December for parts of the Midwest and parts of the Inner Mountains, but certainly not severe. There haven't been many winter months which come in the top ten coldest over the past ten years, although last February was certainly severe for parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Perceptions have also changed here...

[david16]

If there is severe snowy weather in a certain part of USA, is it true that we can get it in 10 days time or so?

Edited January 13, 2008 by david16

[The PIT]

If there is severe snowy weather in a certain part of USA, is it true that we can get it in 10 days time or so?

Nope. Short and simple.

[reef]

Erm, in a word, no. Sorry david, but it just doesn't happen like that.

Indeed, I often wonder where that comes from. If anything, cold air pouring out from the east coast of the states (giving them heavy snowfall) tends to power up the jet and encourage cyclogenesis around Newfoundland. In essence, cold there often leads to mild here, the exact opposite.

[Hairy Celt]

no i have not forgotten, it's been cold here for over a week, as evidenced by the amount of wood i've had to burn to keep the tiddlers from complaining about cold noses and chilblains.

[TEITS]

In essence, cold there often leads to mild here, the exact opposite.

Although recently the NE of the US has been extremely mild with record breaking temps due to HP bringing S,lys and yet we still remained fairly mild!

However in Feb 91 when a simliar situation occured in the US we had a bitter E,ly.

The weather in the US does have an impact but is only one piece of many jigsaw pieces.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Indeed, I often wonder where that comes from. If anything, cold air pouring out from the east coast of the states (giving them heavy snowfall) tends to power up the jet and encourage cyclogenesis around Newfoundland. In essence, cold there often leads to mild here, the exact opposite.

Very true reef. The only exception to this was January 1977 when it was cold on the East coast of US and still cool in the UK.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It can happen on very rare occasions, namely when we get a cold zonal flow with cold air sent straight across the Atlantic from the USA, but such setups were rare even in the 20th century.

Cold weather in the USA often implies northerlies across that region, implying an Icelandic Low of some description, so barring cold zonality, or some kind of easterly stemming from a blocking high to the NE pushing the low westwards like in early February 1996, it's actually more likely to be mild here.

[Weather-history]

I looked at past weather conditions for New York and compared it what was happening in the UK and there were some similarities

1903

New York: Very mild March, but coolest summer (June-August) on record (1869-Present). 11.63 inches’ rain over 8-9 October.

UK: March mild, very cool summer, wettest October on record

1907

New York: Unseasonably cool mid-May to mid-June.

UK: Also cool in the UK

1916

Warmest January CET wise and also some notably mild weather in New York, March was cold in New York as it was back in the UK. June was cold in New York as it was in the UK and both places had a cold december

1922

New York: Very cool summer after some May heat

UK: Very cool summer after some May heat.

1938

New York: Notably warm March, November warmth during first half

UK: Notably warm March and November warmth during first half

1945

New York: Unseasonably mild February through mid-April, then unseasonably cool through early June

UK: Very mild Feb-May period

1949

New York: Warmest year to date by more than 1 F. June driest calendar month in history (0.02”)

UK: Very warm year

1955

New York: Hot Summer

UK: Warm summer

1961

New York: Warmest September on record

UK: warm

1964

New York: Driest year on record up to this time (32.99”).

UK: Dry year

1973

New York: Late August/Early September heat wave (eight straight days of 90 F or higher temperatures).

UK: Heatwaves in mid August and early September

1977

New York: Cold January; 9.19” rain over 7-8 November

UK: Cold January

1978

New York: Cold January and February; 34 inches’ snowfall in January (record for any calendar month) and 23 inches in February

UK: February cold with huge snowfall in far SW

1979

New York: Cold February, record mild November

UK: Cold Feb, very mild end to Nov

1995

New York: Very warm July and August. Just 0.28” rain from 29 July through 16 September (50 days).

UK: Record breaking July-August period, extremely dry

1995-96

New York: 1995-96 winter snowiest (75.6”) in history; 20.2” on 7-8 January

UK: Some notable snowfalls

1998

New York: Second warmest year in history. Five straight 80 F or higher days in March

UK: Warm March and a warm year

1999

New York: Warmest calendar month (July) in history

UK: Very warm July

2001-02

New York: Mildest winter (December-February) in all history. November 2001 also warmest on record.

UK: Mildest mid Jan-mid Feb period on record

Edited January 13, 2008 by Mr_Data

[acbrixton]

It'll come back. It's all cyclical.They had ludicrously warm winters in Henry VIII's reign.

Richard that is interesting. Do you have a link or reference that supports that assertion.

When I have the time I hope to read up on the MWP and the transition to the LIA.

kind regards

Andrew

[Lettucing Gutted]

I looked at past weather conditions for New York and compared it what was happening in the UK and there were some similarities

1903

New York: Very mild March, but coolest summer (June-August) on record (1869-Present). 11.63 inches’ rain over 8-9 October.

UK: March mild, very cool summer, wettest October on record

1907

New York: Unseasonably cool mid-May to mid-June.

UK: Also cool in the UK

1916

Warmest January CET wise and also some notably mild weather in New York, March was cold in New York as it was back in the UK. June was cold in New York as it was in the UK and both places had a cold December

1922

New York: Very cool summer after some May heat

UK: Very cool summer after some May heat.

1938

New York: Notably warm March, November warmth during first half

UK: Notably warm March and November warmth during first half

1945

New York: Unseasonably mild February through mid-April, then unseasonably cool through early June

UK: Very mild Feb-May period

1949

New York: Warmest year to date by more than 1 F. June driest calendar month in history (0.02”)

UK: Very warm year

1955

New York: Hot Summer

UK: Warm summer

1961

New York: Warmest September on record

UK: warm

1964

New York: Driest year on record up to this time (32.99”).

UK: Dry year

1973

New York: Late August/Early September heat wave (eight straight days of 90 F or higher temperatures).

UK: Heatwaves in mid August and early September

1977

New York: Cold January; 9.19” rain over 7-8 November

UK: Cold January

1978

New York: Cold January and February; 34 inches’ snowfall in January (record for any calendar month) and 23 inches in February

UK: February cold with huge snowfall in far SW

1979

New York: Cold February, record mild November

UK: Cold Feb, very mild end to Nov

1995

New York: Very warm July and August. Just 0.28” rain from 29 July through 16 September (50 days).

UK: Record breaking July-August period, extremely dry

1995-96

New York: 1995-96 winter snowiest (75.6”) in history; 20.2” on 7-8 January

UK: Some notable snowfalls

1998

New York: Second warmest year in history. Five straight 80 F or higher days in March

UK: Warm March and a warm year

1999

New York: Warmest calendar month (July) in history

UK: Very warm July

2001-02

New York: Mildest winter (December-February) in all history. November 2001 also warmest on record.

UK: Mildest mid Jan-mid Feb period on record

Very well laid out and presented Mr_Data.

I have just been wondering what could have been the cause of most of the "mirrored cold" between the Eastern US and the UK?

Two possible reasons:-

1. Westerlies moving over a colder than average North Atlantic or

2. Maybe a very amplified deep warm ridge over the North Atlantic with deep cold troughs over the British Isles and the Eastern Seaboard of the US?"

Edited January 13, 2008 by Craig Evans

[WhiteFox]

A little graphic to illustrate Mr Data's point about 01/02 winter:

Very well laid out and presented Mr_Data.

I have just been wondering what could have been the cause of most of the "mirrored cold" between the Eastern US and the UK?

Two possible reasons:-

1. Westerlies moving over a colder than average North Atlantic or

2. Maybe a very amplified deep warm ridge over the North Atlantic with deep cold troughs over the British Isles and the Eastern Seaboard of the US?"

I guess it depends on the source of the cold for the Eastern Seaboard. The coldest air comes from the North west, implying a low pressure system over Quebec. If this stays in situ then this may imply some decent blocking over Greenland with the obvious possibilities that then raises for the UK. If the block is further west, then this is less favourable downstream for the UK. The upshot is, IMHO, that there is no correlation between cold in the Eastern US and cold in the UK; it all depends on the exact setup in the North Atlantic.

Edited January 13, 2008 by WhiteFox

[reef]

Richard that is interesting. Do you have a link or reference that supports that assertion.

When I have the time I hope to read up on the MWP and the transition to the LIA.

kind regards

Andrew

Id like to see that link aswell. By all accounts there were several severe winters during the reign of Henry VIII, as well as hot summers.

http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1500_1599.htm

[Optimus Prime]

Id like to see that link aswell. By all accounts there were several severe winters during the reign of Henry VIII, as well as hot summers.

http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1500_1599.htm

Perhaps by their accounts, but remember many buildings didn't have proper heating so even a month like December just gone would had felt 'severe. Certainly the months like February and March 2006 recently would have felt very cold indeed.

[reef]

Perhaps by their accounts, but remember many buildings didn't have proper heating so even a month like December just gone would had felt 'severe. Certainly the months like February and March 2006 recently would have felt very cold indeed.

Of course, and records from that era are often sketchy. However there are examples such as this:

January 1506 (OSP) Severe frost. Thames frozen throughout January; horse and cart could cross the frozen river. The sea was also frozen at Marseilles. This implies that it must have been bitterly cold (and persistently so) since at least late December. It often needs some period of strong east wind as well to remove the heat from the water. (LWH)

When did the sea last reliablely freeze over anywhere in western Europe and when did even still and none-tidal waters freeze over for a whole month? I agree that cold then would have felt much colder than now, but its pretty clear that the examples given imply months with a much lower CET than 4-5C.

[phil nw.]

Having experienced 62/63 winter in all it`s glory as a 14yo schoolboy you would have thought that i would say there has been nothing as cold since.

This was a typical set up then

Indeed as you can see from my avitar i experienced 63 days of lying snow.

However for bitter Cold 1987 to me was the one i remember,although the spell only lasted about 1 week we had record minima in the midlands.

Here are some charts to show the setup

Just look at the uppers -15 to -20c air over the Midlands.

I can`tremember anything like that since.

[Optimus Prime]

When did the sea last reliablely freeze over anywhere in western Europe and when did even still and none-tidal waters freeze over for a whole month?

January 1997 saw some lakes, rivers and parts of the sea freeze. For the first time in 50 years the thames froze at Buckinghamshire in that month.

[frostynikkers]

I bought a book co-written by Michael Fish and some other weather researchers and it seem that winters past were indeed far more severe than we will know. It includes a few old photos from 1895 showing the great ice floes in the Thames, it looked like the Arctic. There were also records, and enough from enough different sources I presume to be believed, that spoke of the Thames freezing solid for many weeks on end without melting, thick ice they used to have fairs on. We simply do not see that level of freezing over a large area of any river, letalone a coastline, at present. The reasons I know not but I think that regardless of having no central heating, winters could be terrible beyond our comprehension.

[Stratos Ferric]

I bought a book co-written by Michael Fish and some other weather researchers and it seem that winters past were indeed far more severe than we will know. It includes a few old photos from 1895 showing the great ice floes in the Thames, it looked like the Arctic. There were also records, and enough from enough different sources I presume to be believed, that spoke of the Thames freezing solid for many weeks on end without melting, thick ice they used to have fairs on. We simply do not see that level of freezing over a large area of any river, letalone a coastline, at present. The reasons I know not but I think that regardless of having no central heating, winters could be terrible beyond our comprehension.

This point comes up frequently. There's little doubt that winters were generally a lot colder a century or so ago than they are now, however a freezing River Thames is not a precise gauge of severity of cold. First up a century ago the bridges that were there, particularly London Bridge, had much shorter spans than today's bridges, slowing flow significantly - fast flowing water is very hard to freeze. Secondly the river was less well dredged, with less well engineered banks, again making for slack marginal water. Thirdly it was not routinely dredged, so in places was shallower than tends to be the case nowadays. Fourthly, there was less warm effluent and waste than there is today. Finally, and perhaps most significant alongside point no.1, the UHI would have been far less pronounced than is the case today.

The bottom line is that even if we had the same conditions today, the River almost certainly would not freeze.