Tropical Cyclone Elisa

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC:

REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 175.7W.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY

385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-

SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE

CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK

SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. THESE FIXES

JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE STORM IS

FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SYSTEM AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY

ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY

EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT

IS CURRENTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS FAVORABLE

OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER

WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS WILL PREVENT ANY

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF

TC 11P BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,

NAVPACMETOCCEN 091321Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 091330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//

11P (no name), 3 squares from the left:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Will do a better update later if needed, but I can't see this one doing much really. It's southeastwards track will quickly bring it's demise, perhaps as soon as 48 hours, as it moves over colder waters. Still, it may surprise us. I don't expect Fiji to be affected (perhaps only the smaller islands to the south) unless there is a major track change. The first South Pacific storm of 2008 though!

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELISA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

[Icer]

Image

Looking rough!

[Somerset Squall]

Image

Looking rough!

I think you have the wrong area there mate :lol: . That's an image of the southern Indian Ocean, this storm is in the South Pacific- there's an image of it in my first post.

Anyway, 11P has become Elisa, a 40kt tropical storm. As cookie's storm alert indicates the storm won't affect the major islands of Fiji but the smaller islands to the south (sorry for my geographical ignorance, I don't know the area) are currently being hit by Elisa. A southeastward motion is currently occuring and is expected to for the rest of Elisa's short lifetime. A trough will enduce shear over Elisa after 24hr which will induce weakening and then dissapation around or a little after 48hr.

[Cookie]

I think you have the wrong area there mate . That's an image of the southern Indian Ocean, this storm is in the South Pacific- there's an image of it in my first post.

Anyway, 11P has become Elisa, a 40kt tropical storm. As cookie's storm alert indicates the storm won't affect the major islands of Fiji but the smaller islands to the south (sorry for my geographical ignorance, I don't know the area) are currently being hit by Elisa. A southeastward motion is currently occuring and is expected to for the rest of Elisa's short lifetime. A trough will enduce shear over Elisa after 24hr which will induce weakening and then dissapation around or a little after 48hr.

thanks for the update. I just want to say the likely hood of anyone from one of those islands reading this thread and then complaing is very slim

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the update. I just want to say the likely hood of anyone from one of those islands reading this thread and then complaing is very slim

LOL

[Somerset Squall]

Elisa has now dissapated due to shear and cool sea temps. Regeneration is not expected.

[kold weather]

Shear blew this system to pieces, as it happens it was quite obvious yesterday tht was going to happen with the way all the convection got lumped onto the southern side of the circulation and the models progged it to get worse and indeed it did...be that a lesson for the upcoming hurricane season.