Tropical Storm 01W

[Somerset Squall]

We have an off season depression in the West Pacific. I've been watching this disturbance over the last few days and it has probably done more damage as a disturbance than it's going to as a depression. It's brought a lot of flooding across the Phillipines with crops and houses destroyed.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/impact...1/18422782.html

However, the depression is expected to be shortlived. It formed over the warm waters of the South China sea, helped by good outflow. It has 12 hours to strengthen, but the JTWC isn't expecting it to become any stronger than 30kts. In 24hrs, a dry, cold air surge should abruptly dissapate the depression before it can make landfall again.

Satellite image of 01W: (left of image)

Taken from: CIMSS

[Cookie]

thanks for the info, I haven't been sent any alerts so they mustn't expect this to affect land to badly,

[Somerset Squall]

That's right, it's expected to dissapate over the south china sea in about 24-36hrs. It's moving away from the Phillipines but it has already done a lot of damage with flooding when it was a tropical disturbance that crossed the Phillipines.

Latest JTWC has indicated that TD01W has strengthened to 30kts. As explained above though, this strengthening will only be temporary.

[Somerset Squall]

TD01W has unexpectedly strengthened to a 35kt tropical storm. Dissapation has been put back by about 12 hours but is still forecast to occur due to dry, cold air wrapping around the storm. 01W, or it's remnants, will be passing very close to Southeastern Vietnam where it may give some rainfall, though nothing major.

[Somerset Squall]

01W has now dissapated off the coast of Vietnam due to high shear and lower sea temps.

[Cookie]

It was nice knowing it

[Somerset Squall]

Well hold that thought Cookie because it has regenerated! Deep convection has redeveloped over the centre and it has been re-classified as a tropical depression. However, shear and cool sea temps will inevitably fully kill the system off sooner or later, unless it has some more surprises up it's sleeve.

Latest from JTWC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM

SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD

AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM

IS BASED UPON DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A

RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 25 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF

THE LLCC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z,

160900Z AND 161500Z.//

[Somerset Squall]

01W has dissapated again to the south of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

JTWC:

REMARKS:

161500Z POSITION NEAR 6.2N 107.9E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTH-

EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN,

WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIR-

CULATION CENTER, WHICH ALSO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN. THIS

IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING

CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z

IS 10 FEET.//

[Cookie]

I like it when they don't give up.

can I ask where you get you're data from? no I don't want to steal you're job :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

I like it when they don't give up.

can I ask where you get you're data from? no I don't want to steal you're job :lol:

A range of different sources: the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre)

JMA (Japan Meterological Agency)

CIMSS (satellite images and upper level analysis)

NHC (National Hurricane Centre) and CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Centre)

Meteofrance (South Indian cyclones)

UNISYS (tropical weather archives)

BOM (Australian cyclones)

NAVY/NRL (Satellite images and tracking charts)

Wunderground (SST's maps and tracking maps)

Those are basically the sites I use, I think there is a hurricane links thread somewhere which will have plenty more useful links.

[Cookie]

thanks mate very useful