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Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2008


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Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    TSR predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2008.

    Theres a surprise!

    Prediction consists of the following;

    • 15 Tropical Storms (58 year average 10) 50% increase
    • 8 Hurricanes: Cat 1-5 (58 year average 6) 33.3% increase
    • 4 Intense Hurricanes: Cat 3-5 (58 year average 3) 33.3% increase
    • ACE Index 149 (58 year average 101) 48% Increase

    To add to this there is the systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Carribean Sea. Summary as follows;

    • 11 Tropical Storms (58 year average 7) 38% increase
    • 6 Hurricanes: Cat 1-5 (58 year average 4) 50% increase
    • 3 Intense Hurricanes: Cat 3-5 (58 year average 2) 50% increase
    • Ace Index 122 (58 year average 78) 56% increase

    Personally, I dont think these forecasts are worth the paper they are written on, but this is big business and people will pay for any information being offered.

    Regards,

    Cat5

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well being very interested in this sort of stuff i can see why they would call for an active season, La Nina seasons ted to be above average and the stormsthat form tend to be stronger due to less shear across the atlantic basin in 'general' however there are a few other varibles that can affect what happens.

    If I had to make a call it'd be probably close to what they are progging given weak La Nina condtions will probably exsit through the season...I'd go for something very similar to what I progged last season of 16/10/5.

    Last year neutral condtions in the season allowed a pretty close to average amount of tropical storms but I think the La Nina condtions will probably cause more intense storms this season comparedto last season where shear teared evrything apart in the middle of the Atlantic.

    TSR numbers are VERY close to the average numbers and ACE since 1995 and the start of the active cycle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland
  • Location: Kilmarnock, Scotland

    Hey Kold Weather,

    I tried to PM you but your 'inbox' is full...! If you get a chance speak to Paul alternativley empty your inbox a bit and I'll send you through a proposal / idea.

    Cheers,

    Cat5

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