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Winter 07/08 A half time round up


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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

Steve,

I found this a fascinating read and it has helped me to understand at least some of the reasons why the pressure patterns are so different to winters I recall that could produce sustained cold and (sometimes) snow and why such winters are becoming, seemingly, a thing of the past.

Thanks for taking the time to share your analysis on this forum - it is appreciated by many people I'm sure.

Moose

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Thanks Steve anyway.

So in your opinion is hope all lost that we shall ever see a colder than average winter in the UK again, and even a cold winter like 1995-96 let alone 1979?

Is hope now lost for the rest of this present winter for it to provide a decent cold northerly or easterly spell and snowfall at any point?

Will any stratospheric warming event help us to get any northern blocking in the remainder of this winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

My only quibble with your thread is the suggestion that we're past mid-winter: astronomically we are, and in old fashioned winter terms we would be encroaching upon that point. In the even larger teapot though I think we're only just entering the window in which wintry weather can reasonably be expected.

I think this is possibly true SF, but if it is, it is never going to be a very interesting window to look through and will not require much in the way of double glazing to keep out the cold.

Late February and into March in winters past were never great for sustained cold spells as it was too late in the season (unless at altitude) and I can't see them becoming colder than before. They might just not be regularly as warm as December and January seem to have become.

Moose

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
My only quibble with your thread is the suggestion that we're past mid-winter: astronomically we are, and in old fashioned winter terms we would be encroaching upon that point. In the even larger teapot though I think we're only just entering the window in which wintry weather can reasonably be expected.

I think this is possibly true SF, but if it is, it is never going to be a very interesting window to look through and will not require much in the way of double glazing to keep out the cold.

Late February and into March in winters past were never great for sustained cold spells as it was too late in the season (unless at altitude) and I can't see them becoming colder than before. They might just not be regularly as warm as December and January seem to have become.

Moose

March wasn't great in recent history for sustained cold, but we have had heavy snowfall and short periods of cold all the same. I do tend to agree that in recent times March, certainly after the first week or so, has disappointed - and, I have to add, not only at low elevations in the south.

The sad fact is that the window through which we now look at winter is narrower, less deep, and less in need of double glazing!

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
I'm pretty sure we will have a cold winter in the near future. There are too many variables to say for definite, we are never going to.

I would have to agree - the authoratative way that some write off future cold winters on these forums shows a remarkable level of foolishness in my opinion.

I seriously doubt a 47,63,79 type winter (unless some geological forcing event occurs) however different versions of 90/91 95/96 and even short term events like Jan 1987 remain a possibility

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I would have to agree - the authoratative way that some write off future cold winters on these forums shows a remarkable level of foolishness in my opinion.

I seriously doubt a 47,63,79 type winter (unless some geological forcing event occurs) however different versions of 90/91 95/96 and even short term events like Jan 1987 remain a possibility

Well if anyone has doubts, look what happened in Argentina last winter, (our summer 2007).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/glob...tn87576_1yr.gif

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London
A very bleak and sobering awakening indeed, although I think many of us know deep down that we will never see the likes of 62-63 / Jan 87 / 78 / 79 etc. again in our life time, unless of course we are prepared to move to eastern Europe or Canada, oh for a repeat of these synoptics Jan 2nd 1963. An easterly from the depths of Russia to Canada, never again I fear. :cray:

Paul

Regardless of debates about the 'even larger teapot' anyone who harboured any hopes of a repeat in their lifetimes of 1962/3 (January and February both sub 0c) was labouring under a massive self-delusion. In the 348 year history of the CET only 2 other winters fell into that category (1683-4 and 1739-40).

In the 20th century winters like 1978-9 (January and February averaging sub 1.0c), or 1986-7 (either January or February sub 0c) occurred rarely, a 3.5% chance in each case or about once every 23 years. Ignoring again the MW argument it would have been reasonable for an individual of average life expectency to expect perhaps three winters of 1 or other of those categories in their lifetime. In my view the odds on a repetition in current circumstances are remote. A repetition of 1995-6 ( 2 out of 3 months sub 3.0c and winter mean of 3.0c) or 1990-1 (all 3 months sub 1971-200 mean and a winter mean of 3.0c) seems to me unrealistic. Perhaps 1996-7 (2 out of 3 month sub 3.0c and winter mean of 4.0c) is the best we can hope for.

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Regardless of debates about the 'even larger teapot' anyone who harboured any hopes of a repeat in their lifetimes of 1962/3 (January and February both sub 0c) was labouring under a massive self-delusion. In the 348 year history of the CET only 2 other winters fell into that category (1683-4 and 1739-40).

In the 20th century winters like 1978-9 (January and February averaging sub 1.0c), or 1986-7 (either January or February sub 0c) occurred rarely, a 3.5% chance in each case or about once every 23 years. Ignoring again the MW argument it would have been reasonable for an individual of average life expectency to expect perhaps three winters of 1 or other of those categories in their lifetime. In my view the odds on a repetition in current circumstances are remote. A repetition of 1995-6 ( 2 out of 3 months sub 3.0c and winter mean of 3.0c) or 1990-1 (all 3 months sub 1971-200 mean and a winter mean of 3.0c) seems to me unrealistic. Perhaps 1996-7 (2 out of 3 month sub 3.0c and winter mean of 4.0c) is the best we can hope for.

regards

ACB

Looking at seasons as a whole can be a bit misleading.

For example, 2006-7, whilst without doubt one of the mildest will be remembered by myself as the snowiest Central London event since I moved into the area 6 years ago.

I think if you are looking for seasonal cold, you may be correct to a degree, however short term localised events that live long in the memory will be still be possible for a long long time yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A good informative read thanks steve.

Whilst hope in in the next 3 weeks for any sustained cold spell would it appears from your reasoning seem quite remote, there does appear to be some hope for something as we head towards the end of february (traditionally a much quieter time in terms of the atlantic and the jet, in fact late feb and early march has in recent years become the safest bet for colder wintry conditions of the winter.

All in all though it is a shame that the mid winter period (in my opinion this is roughly from about the 15th jan to 15th feb) once again isn't likely to deliver anything particularly wintry and once again the accolade of period of coldest sustained weather will once again go to the honour of the 'shoulder' periods of the winter i.e. mid-late dec and/or late feb- early march (unlikely that we are going to see a period of weather in the next 3 weeks based on steves thoughts that will rival the coldish spell of 10-22 dec, but that we could see this being rivalled in late feb/early march)

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
I'm pretty sure we will have a cold winter in the near future. There are too many variables to say for definite, we are never going to.

Can't be rules out, however the longer we go without one, and all the while with background warming, the less likely it becomes. Relatively cold, perhaps, but as I've previously posted elsewhere, you can pretty much dismiss any chance of anything remotely as sustained or cold as anything that occurred pre 1990.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Can't be rules out, however the longer we go without one, and all the while with background warming, the less likely it becomes. Relatively cold, perhaps, but as I've previously posted elsewhere, you can pretty much dismiss any chance of anything remotely as sustained or cold as anything that occurred pre 1990.

So you reckon another Feb 1991 then?

:cray:

4 foot snow drifts here we come!

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Well if anyone has doubts, look what happened in Argentina last winter, (our summer 2007).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/glob...tn87576_1yr.gif

I wonder what big event in the southern hemisphere might have helped to trigger that?

Regardless of debates about the 'even larger teapot' anyone who harboured any hopes of a repeat in their lifetimes of 1962/3 (January and February both sub 0c) was labouring under a massive self-delusion. In the 348 year history of the CET only 2 other winters fell into that category (1683-4 and 1739-40).

In the 20th century winters like 1978-9 (January and February averaging sub 1.0c), or 1986-7 (either January or February sub 0c) occurred rarely, a 3.5% chance in each case or about once every 23 years. Ignoring again the MW argument it would have been reasonable for an individual of average life expectency to expect perhaps three winters of 1 or other of those categories in their lifetime. In my view the odds on a repetition in current circumstances are remote. A repetition of 1995-6 ( 2 out of 3 months sub 3.0c and winter mean of 3.0c) or 1990-1 (all 3 months sub 1971-200 mean and a winter mean of 3.0c) seems to me unrealistic. Perhaps 1996-7 (2 out of 3 month sub 3.0c and winter mean of 4.0c) is the best we can hope for.

regards

ACB

Andrew, I think that's a very sensible baseline - depressing though it is. Returning anything more than that really would be the modern equivalent of a 1947 or 1963.

I remember reading a very poignant piece by a former model, describing the power of beauty, and the shock of its passing. In particular she reflected that the privileges of power, like always getting a table - and a good one at that - in the best restaurant were taken for granted, until suddenly it happened no more; people no longer looked at her, fawning men ahd moved on elsewhere, and the saddest part of all is that she didn't know it had ended until the end had passed.

I genuinely worry, mainly in a purely romantic way, that we shall never again see proper wintry weather sustained for a period here in the UK; that last winter 'kiss' may already be history on our lips, those of us who experienced it. Perhaps the fleeting wintry maiden will comne back for one final peck, but I for one am not hanging my hopes on it.

Looking at seasons as a whole can be a bit misleading.

For example, 2006-7, whilst without doubt one of the mildest will be remembered by myself as the snowiest Central London event since I moved into the area 6 years ago.

I think if you are looking for seasonal cold, you may be correct to a degree, however short term localised events that live long in the memory will be still be possible for a long long time yet.

Stu, I hardly think a single snowfall in a single locality really makes the case. It will be a long time before we become snowless as a climate, though we do now seem to be in a space where enduring snow at low level in the south has all but become a thing of the past. In my lifetime there have been plenty of occasions when the country, pretty much from hed to toe was swathed in a decent cover that lasted for a few days in many places. I cannot honestly recall when that was last true, but I bet it's pre 1990. IN the late 70s and early 80s, although the events did not match 1963, say, such events happened at least once in most winters. Nowadays there's excitement on here simply if it sleets in some places: expectations of lying snow seem to have all but disappeared.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Relatively cold, perhaps, but as I've previously posted elsewhere, you can pretty much dismiss any chance of anything remotely as sustained or cold as anything that occurred pre 1990.

You mean like July-November 1993? Didn't occur during winter months but was sustained cold, nevertheless.

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Posted
  • Location: Brixton, South London
  • Location: Brixton, South London
Looking at seasons as a whole can be a bit misleading.

For example, 2006-7, whilst without doubt one of the mildest will be remembered by myself as the snowiest Central London event since I moved into the area 6 years ago.

I think if you are looking for seasonal cold, you may be correct to a degree, however short term localised events that live long in the memory will be still be possible for a long long time yet.

Stu, I agree with the last paragraph (albeit the intensity of such short term events is unlikely to match earlier cold spells).

I am surprised by your first paragraph. Looking at Philip Eden's data for Hampstead for the winters 2002/3 onwards [obviously Hampstead's /sleetsnowfall data are going to differ significantly from central London data, however his data should give a good idea of the relative snowiness of central London winters]:

2002-3: 8 days sleet or snow in winter (D,J and F) and 9 including November, March and April;

2003-4: 12 and 15 days;

2004-5: 14 and 23 days;

2005-6: 10 and 18 days;

2006-7: 6 days.

regards

ACB

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I wonder what big event in the southern hemisphere might have helped to trigger that?

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic but at times I find some of your posts to some members at times, questionable.

In any case, that is precisely one of the variables which I mentioned.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

As well as the second half of 1993, the year 1996 was generally a year of sustained spells of below average temps and had a yearly CET of 9.20, almost unthinkable in our climate ever since then. In 1996 there were five months with below average CETs and only October was as much as 1*C above average; so after the very warm period of Nov 1994 - Oct 1995 had passed we hit December 1995 and significant spells of above average temps became rare until February 1997, which was the start of our true "christmas pudding".

Ever since 1997 all we have had at the cool side is the occasional below average month, and occasional close to average season, and the ship sailed 11 years ago for us being able to record significantly cold months (2*C below CET), or cold seasons.

The sad point for me at least now is that the coldest month we have had since 1997 was Jan 2001 (3.2), although there were also 30 day periods straddling two calendar months in Feb / Mar 2005 and 2006 that managed a CET in the low 3s, but it now seems very sad judging the last 11 years that a month with a CET of 3*C or possibly even as high as 3.5*C is "the floor" in the christmas pudding. Gone are the sub 2*C months let alone the sub zero months and even a sub 3*C month almost looks out of the question given the last 11 years. Winters like 1995-96 are dead, and so are spells like Feb 1991 and Jan 1987 let alone 1979 / 63 / 47. Will anything like this ever return?

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Stu, I hardly think a single snowfall in a single locality really makes the case.

I don't think you have read what I was saying. Memorable snow events have occured locally in the last couple of years

November 2005 - Wales and West Country

February 2006 - Newcastle

February 2006 - Kent

December 2006 - Midlands

February 2007 - Much of Central Southern England.

These were not 1 flake events - they caused widespread disruption and whilst I agree that were not in the league of events in the 80s, they were in themselves significant

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
I don't think you have read what I was saying. Memorable snow events have occured locally in the last couple of years

November 2005 - Wales and West Country

February 2006 - Newcastle

February 2006 - Kent

December 2006 - Midlands

February 2007 - Much of Central Southern England.

These were not 1 flake events - they caused widespread disruption and whilst I agree that were not in the league of events in the 80s, they were in themselves significant

To be fair though, those eventas could happens in many places in the world. I would be very surprised if events like that didnt happen in quite a few places up to 40 degrees N in the world at some stage or other.

Snowfall is nothing special these days, and we just dont get this - memorable snow events they may be in relativity, but in actuality they are quite weak.

we are between 50-54N we should really be getting something better than we have in the past 10 years.

Myself I dont see 1-5cm as significant but maybe we should given we're in a country that doesn't recieve much in the way of snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
In my lifetime there have been plenty of occasions when the country, pretty much from hed to toe was swathed in a decent cover that lasted for a few days in many places. I cannot honestly recall when that was last true, but I bet it's pre 1990. IN the late 70s and early 80s, although the events did not match 1963, say, such events happened at least once in most winters. Nowadays there's excitement on here simply if it sleets in some places: expectations of lying snow seem to have all but disappeared.

In my lifetime I can remember the sort of events occuring you describe in

1979

1981

1985

1987

1991

It is excepted that (for whatever reason) 77-86 was anomously cold so you would expect most of the events to happen then.

It also worth remembering the the 1930s and the early 70s had similarly snowfree winters that we are experiencing now

If we had risen 5C and not 1C since then, I might agree with some of your ramblings, but you seem to think that AGW now overides all natural cycles and I think you are fundementally incorrect with this assumption.

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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

I still think the cold will come back. If we can get a cold summer then we must surely be able to manage a cold winter.

It'll probably take a big natural disaster like a volcano eruption to trigger it though. What did the Mount St Helen's eruption cause in the early 80's??

Edited by Stelmer
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
I still think the cold will come back. If we can get a cold summer then we must surely be able to manage a cold winter.

It'll probably take a big natural disaster like a volcano eruption to trigger it though. What did the Mount St Helen's eruption cause in the early 80's??

Eruptions on the scale of Mount St Helens and Pinatubo have done nothing much more than slow the increase in global temperature for a year or two. The main problem is the oceans are incredibly efficient at storing heat (look at the effect the warm Atlantic is having on our winters for example). If we were to see a massive event, we're most likely to see a cooler summer rather than a cold winter. This was indeed the case in 1987/1988 after Mount St Helens and 1992/1993 after Pinatubo.

Im not a fan of wikipedia, but this shows it rather well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Short_I...ture_Record.png

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Eruptions on the scale of Mount St Helens and Pinatubo have done nothing much more than slow the increase in global temperature for a year or two. The main problem is the oceans are incredibly efficient at storing heat (look at the effect the warm Atlantic is having on our winters for example). If we were to see a massive event, we're most likely to see a cooler summer rather than a cold winter. This was indeed the case in 1987/1988 after Mount St Helens and 1992/1993 after Pinatubo.

Im not a fan of wikipedia, but this shows it rather well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Short_I...ture_Record.png

Looking at the oceanweather website, there never seems to be much problems in West coast America with the Pacific beside us though with the southern point of the ice at about 60 degree north being not much further north than us compared to the flippng North atlantic where away from between North East America and Greenland, the southern point of the atlantic ice to the North is at least 10 degrees further North.

It's just us with that flipping gulf stream have to suffer constant non stop mild zonality (Maritime tropical) for days at this time of year with the abnormally warm North Atlantic. It's not exactly constant moist subtropical maritime @ 50 to 60 degree North RE the Pacific at this time of year the way it is with us.

Edited by david16
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Eruptions on the scale of Mount St Helens and Pinatubo have done nothing much more than slow the increase in global temperature for a year or two. The main problem is the oceans are incredibly efficient at storing heat (look at the effect the warm Atlantic is having on our winters for example). If we were to see a massive event, we're most likely to see a cooler summer rather than a cold winter. This was indeed the case in 1987/1988 after Mount St Helens and 1992/1993 after Pinatubo.

Im not a fan of wikipedia, but this shows it rather well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Short_I...ture_Record.png

Its a common misconception that Mt St Helens had an impact on summer 1980, infact the volcano erupted in the May of that year and most of the material was blasted sideways rather than upwards, anyway. Unlike Pinatubo, Mt St Helens had little impact. :)

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