Tropical Cyclone Hondo

[Somerset Squall]

nice image. these systems don't like going out quietly do they!

That's true . Though what Hondo has done is really remarkable. It'll be interesting to see how strong it can get in it's "second life" or whether it will give up for good.

[Cookie]

are their many other systems that have done the same thing?

[Somerset Squall]

are their many other systems that have done the same thing?

Well there are other storms which have ceased to be tropical cyclones by weakening to remnant lows then re-developing later down the line but usually there isn't a gap this long between dissapation and regeneration. Hondo dissapated on the 12th and re-developed yesterday (according to Meteofrance, JTWC still have it below warning level), so it spent 9 days as a remnant low, which is really rare because as KW says favourable shear values have persisted in this case and usually the circulation would be disrupted in unfavourable conditions (after all, unfavourable conditions are what causes cyclones to disapate in the first place). So in answer to your question: yes- but this is an exceptional case.

Edited February 23, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo has intensified to 35kts and JTWC have started issuing warnings again. There is a possibility of a little strengthening in the next 36hrs as sea temps remain warm but beyond that sea temps are expected to quickly fall away under Hondo's fairly speedy southwestward then southward track. Hondo will be influenced by a strengthening ridge to the east which will force this motion to cooler waters. Mauritius and La Reunion will see further heavy rains and gusty winds over the next 24hrs at least.

[NL]

Certainly taking on the shape of a TS again..

Thursday...at 1830z

Today... at 0630z

Edited February 23, 2008 by NL

[Somerset Squall]

Nice images NL, Hondo is indeed looking like a minimal tropical storm now. As Hondo has come back as a small cyclone it has managed to intensify fairly quickly to 45kts according to the JTWC. The forecast for disapation within the next couple days is still forecast as shear will increase and Hondo will move over cooler waters beyond 24hrs.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 23 Feb, 2008 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HONDO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mauritius

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Reunion

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo given up for good?

JTWC:

TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 020

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

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WARNING POSITION:

240000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.4E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

241200Z --- 25.1S 52.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

250000Z --- 27.6S 51.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

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REMARKS:

240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 53.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT

15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT TC 16S TRACKED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

CORNER OF THE LA REUNION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF

THE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD

UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,

MAKING RE-INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING

ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).

THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET.

[Cookie]

you cant say never with this system!