Tropical Cyclone Ivan

[kold weather]

This system will be gone pretty rapidly, the inner core has already totally decayed, though there is still strong convection on the western side of the center which is still bad news as there will no doubt be high rainfall rates. I highly doubt winds are 100kts now, I'd thnk a better estimates would be 60, maybe 65kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, the JTWC now have Ivan down at 65kts with disapation forecasted to occur by 48hrs, but I think Ivan will be a remnant low at least before that. It's likely the resultant low will continue to give some heavy rains over Madagascar over the next couple days, maybe a little longer. Ivan is currently heading southwestward but a more southerly motion is expected soon which could prolong the heavy rainfall.

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Tropical Cyclone IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% currently

[Somerset Squall]

Ivan has weakened to 35kts now and is expected to dissapate very soon. There are still heavy rains over most of Madagascar, particularly the west which will exacerbate flood problems. Interestingly, Meteofrance have Ivan's remnants emerging into the Mozambique channel and heading northwards, re-developing in the warm waters by 72hrs. JTWC are more cautious and just outline re-development as a possibility. If Ivan's remnant low does make it over the Mozambique channel then I think re-development will be quite likely as shear is low and sea temps are warm. However, it all does depend whether the circulation does actually move back over water or not.

This CIMSS wind shear chart shows just how low the shear is over the channel and what little there is is decreasing.

Edited February 18, 2008 by Somerset Squall

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got my final warning.

Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2008 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for TS is 70% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

[Somerset Squall]

Details about the devestating effects Ivan had on Madagascar:

http://journals.aol.co.uk/pharmolo/hurrica...-at-madagascar/

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some of those images are quite sad

[Somerset Squall]

Death toll now thought to be 83

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/impact...3/18489674.html

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thats very sad