March CET

[Megamoonflake]

6.9c for me please.

[wysiwyg]

6.8 C

Thanks

[Paul Sherman]

I will go with 6.8 for March, Cool to Cold Start then Milder until the Clocks go Forward.

Paul S

[Stratos Ferric]

8.1C please

WiB, have you abandoned the thesis of global cooling?

[Hiya]

6.0

[LadyPakal]

I'd like to go for a 5.8 please! :blush:

[Stratos Ferric]

Looks like the recent pattern of cool starts to March will continue: the modern pattern is definitely not for winter to endure though, so even if we're around 5C at the mid way point, with the sun climbing and assuming the cold (such as it may be) doesn't persist, we should still easily reach the mid 6s. I'll go for an average-ish:

6.7C

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think I will increase my guess to 5.4C if I may :blush:

[J10]

I'm tempted to go a below average month but I'll go slightly above, which I may regret.

6.5c

[derby4life]

7.4 please :blush:

[IRON-BRU]

6.8c please.

[beng]

6.2c

[Evening thunder]

Was tempted to go for 6.1 but I think ill go for 6.6 please

[mk13]

I'll punt for 7.4C

[Devon-Nelly]

7.1c For me Please

I think March will be very changable, cold spells/snaps alternating with very mild spells, with a more warm theme come the end of the month, but despite this i think it will be a very wet month.

[Glacier Point]

SSTAs to our west and SW are +1.5C which would be pertinent if this were going to be a westerly month. But it's not going to be with a strong emphasis of high pressure following cold incursions and likely strong impact on the CET from night time minima, particularly with the rising average.

A month where stratospheric anomalies will become evident and the key will be just how far the CET is driven down weeks 1-3 before an inevitable rise.

ECM long range ensemble suggests something around 6.8C which I think is not fully taking into account the potential for (i) height rises to the north and (ii) surface inversions. So 6.8 C is top value, 4.8 C just about as far 'south' as we could feasibly go. Mid point is 5.8 C and I'll notch this up to 5.9 C to make it realistic.

^{5.9 C} Please

Edited February 29, 2008 by Glacier Point

[Matty M]

6.2c for me

[Thundery wintry showers]

My original instinct was a cool unsettled March with 5.8C, but I think it will begin slightly warmer than anticipated. Therefore...

I will go for 6.4C

[Stratos Ferric]

62 Timbo 3.4

31 Loraine Bennett3.9

11 snowmaiden 4.1

24 memories of 63 4.1

26 NorthernRab 4.2

34 Barry 4.2

16 Mountain Shadow 4.4

18 BarnetBlizzard 4.8

6 Richarddx7 4.9

68 Terminal Moraine 4.9

23 slipknotsam 5.4

15 Climate Man 5.5

42 Kentish Man 5.6

5 Snowray 5.7

19 Shuggee 5.7

53 BFTP 5.7

21 PersianPaladin 5.8

70 Mr Maunder 5.8

80 Lady Pakal 5.8

35 Stu London 5.9

39 ukmoose 5.9

60 damianslaw 5.9

69 ned 5.9

89 Glacier Point 5.9

25 Duncan McAlister 6.0

40 Mammatus 6.0

51 AtlanticFlamethower 6.0

67 Potent Gust 6.0

79 Hiya 6.0

8 Steve Murr 6.1

33 Soaring Hawk 6.1

61 James M 6.1

32 Stephen Prudence 6.2

85 beng 6.2

90 Matty M 6.2

74 dvdfjojo 6.3

46 Shunter 6.4

65 stewfox 6.4

91 TWS 6.4

29 mark bayley 6.5

63 Mr Data 6.5

75 DR Hosking 6.5

82 Jackone 6.5

7 Osmposm 6.6

38 Anti Mild 6.6

66 Mark H 6.6

86 StormMad26 6.6

17 James M 6.7

54 Joneseye 6.7

59 Somerset Squall 6.7

81 Stratos Ferric 6.7

1 Phil N Warks 6.8

9 Steve B 6.8

52 Don 6.8

73 ghrud 6.8

77 wysiwyg 6.8

78 Paul Sherman 6.8

84 Iron-Bru 6.8

44 Norrance 6.9

47 jimben 6.9

76 Megamoonflake 6.9

30 Snowyowl9 7.0

36 David Snow 7.0

49 JohnAcc 7.0

10 mark foster 630 7.1

50 kold weather 7.1

56 Great Plum 7.1

72 Polar Continental 7.1

88 Devon-Nelly 7.1

22 Polar Gael 7.2

43 Jonnie G 7.2

4 Chionomaniac 7.3

27 Paul B 7.3

2 The Pit 7.4

55 Stargazer 7.4

83 derby4life 7.4

87 mk13 7.4

13 Eddie 7.5

20 Gavin P 7.5

45 Redshift 7.5

48 reef 7.5

64 Rain Rain Rain 7.5

12 Optimus Prime 7.7

37 Roger J Smith 7.7

14 Jack Wales 7.8

57 snowsure 7.9

3 Summer Blizzard 8.0

41 snowmackem 8.1

71 La Nina 8.1

58 Mike W 8.4

28 Craig Evans 10.0

Thirty year average is 6.5

Ten year average is 6.9

58 entries below the ten year mean

30 above it

Average of alll entries = 6.48

Edited February 29, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Stratos Ferric]

2008_Feb_CET.xls

[SNOWPLOUGH]

5.8c please

[acbrixton]

7.2 for me please; the early cold spell looks to be shorter and less intense than forecast earlier and despite uncertainty therafter mild spell looks quite likely.

regards

ACB

[Roger J Smith]

Please drop me to 7.6, I am concerned about a line of towering cumulus indicated for 29th of March dropping the max by two degrees.

[mcboz]

7.1 for me...

Edited March 1, 2008 by mcboz

[davehsug]

6.9 for me please