Bird Flu ha worry about this

[The PIT]

Here's the link.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7268578.stm

Yet there's very little panic about this. I presume this is mainly due to Pharmaceutical Companies really interested and therefore not making massive panic stories for media to build up. Certainly a more pressing problem than Bird Flu is and as a carer of elder parent I understand why Doctors advice against Hospital.

The other nasty bug MRSA has stayed about the same. The increase has been put down to improved reporting or more likely that's just an excuse to hide the real problem.

[Bobby]

Um, it's not about the current deaths of bird flu that are of alarm but the potential deaths if it mutates. There'd be a lot more than 6,000 dying in the UK if it did that's for sure. And concerns over bird flu is simply a conspiracy made up by pharmeutical companies? What about 1918 then - was that a conspiracy?

These hospital bugs are certainly worrying though nonetheless.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Magpie

[The PIT]

Um, it's not about the current deaths of bird flu that are of alarm but the potential deaths if it mutates. There'd be a lot more than 6,000 dying in the UK if it did that's for sure. And concerns over bird flu is simply a conspiracy made up by pharmeutical companies? What about 1918 then - was that a conspiracy?

These hospital bugs are certainly worrying though nonetheless.

There's always potential deaths but you need to keep calm about it.

Also interesting that Pharmaceutical companies are coming under pressure to be more open about the results of medicines they make and develop as some of them err do nothing.

As for 1918 yes that happen but panicking over every slightest possibility isn't going to get you anywhere is it? Bit like being scared to cross the road because one car may have faulty brakes.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

There'd be a lot more than 6,000 dying in the UK if it did that's for sure.

Hi Magpie Not trying to nit pick, but a type of statement I never agree with. Without the event actually happening, it would be impossible to say that would be exactly what would happen.

[Bobby]

I don't think anyone is panicing. I'm not anyway, it's just being aware of potential future risks. Flu pandemics have always happened and they are going to happen again. If bird flu does mutate and the virus is as deadly as the 1918 pandemic, which is reasonable to suggest considering it's lethality in people so far, it's going to be a massive event in modern history, you'd agree with that? Far more than 6,000 sick people dying in hospital.

Hi Magpie smile.gif Not trying to nit pick, but a type of statement I never agree with. Without the event actually happening, it would be impossible to say that would be exactly what would happen.

If normal everyday flu kills thousands in the UK every year, then far more will die from pandemic flu as pandemic flu is always considerably more lethal. Even the most very optimistic estimates from experts in regards to a pandemic is far far more than 6,000 dying in a year. The virus so far has killed well over 50% of the people who have caught it, it is not a mild virus.

The pandemic of 1918 killed about 50 million people, that is with a far lower population than today and without modern air travel. People are healthier today too which paradoxically could lead to even more deaths as the virus seems to kill people by causing their immune systems to go over the top. Young, fit healthy people tend to have stronger immune systems and thus more likely to die from their strong immune system overreacting.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The virus so far has killed well over 50% of the people who have caught it, it is not a mild virus.

Again Magpie, not trying to nit pick, however, 50% of what? I know of somebody that put an increase of budget in by 100%. The starting value was 0.

There is, and always will be, a lot of speculation regarding such things, but, it can never be assumed of the outcome. I agree with you mostly, in theory, but I will never accept that it will be an absolute.

[Bobby]

Again Magpie, not trying to nit pick, however, 50% of what? I know of somebody that put an increase of budget in by 100%. The starting value was 0.

There is, and always will be, a lot of speculation regarding such things, but, it can never be assumed of the outcome. I agree with you mostly, in theory, but I will never accept that it will be an absolute.

I don't have the precise figure but about 300 or so have caught it and about 60% have died. So few have caught it because it's not so easily transmissible, yet.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Magpie

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The pandemic of 1918 killed about 50 million people, that is with a far lower population than today and without modern air travel.

And the reason why I didnt like the statement. That is very serious speculation.

A virus does not a pandemic make

The pandemic of 1918 killed about 50 million people, that is with a far lower population than today and without modern air travel. People are healthier today too which paradoxically could lead to even more deaths as the virus seems to kill people by causing their immune systems to go over the top. Young, fit healthy people tend to have stronger immune systems and thus more likely to die from their strong immune system overreacting.

We are also seriously more advanced in medicine and our understanding of both viri (sp?) and the human body.

I don't have the precise figure but about 300 or so have caught it and about 60% have died. So few have caught it because it's not so easily transmissible, yet.

Ah, but not everything is, or will become, and air bourne virus. Although, I suppose it is a bird flu I can see the logic

[Bobby]

If/when it does mutate however, that 300 figure who have caught it will be more like 3 billion if previous pandemics are anything to go by. How many of those will die nobody knows. Of course nothing is absolute or certain and nobody claims that it is but surely the signs are worrying?

[The PIT]

I don't have the precise figure but about 300 or so have caught it and about 60% have died. So few have caught it because it's not so easily transmissible, yet.

What conditions were they living in where they also suffering from other conditions was there general health good prior to infection etc. So many variables.

[Bobby]

And the reason why I didnt like the statement. That is very serious speculation.

A virus does not a pandemic make wink.gif

Well it's obvious that air travel is going to make the virus spread more quickly aroudn the world. Just look at SARS, it was all over the world in a matter of days.

We are also seriously more advanced in medicine and our understanding of both viri (sp?) and the human body.

Say it affects 20 million people consevatively in the UK, there's no way we could treat so many people.

What conditions were they living in where they also suffering from other conditions was there general health good prior to infection etc. So many variables.

Most are young fit healthy people with no known serious health problems - just look at the cases.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Magpie

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Magpie. It really is an interesting one, but I sometimes worry that we can take something and run with it.

Of course, there is nothing absolute to suggest it wont happen either, however, taking a step back, you can sometimes see things differently.

Perhaps its just me

[Bobby]

.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Magpie

[PersianPaladin]

People are healthier today too which paradoxically could lead to even more deaths as the virus seems to kill people by causing their immune systems to go over the top. Young, fit healthy people tend to have stronger immune systems and thus more likely to die from their strong immune system overreacting.

Thats utter nonesense.

An over-reacting immune system is a sign of imbalance and a rare sign at that. The whole nature of a healthy immune system is that it resists these viruses; hence the larger amount of elderly people who die from such flu-like diseases.

[The PIT]

Well it's obvious that air travel is going to make the virus spread more quickly aroudn the world. Just look at SARS, it was all over the world in a matter of days.

Say it affects 20 million people consevatively in the UK, there's no way we could treat so many people.

Most are young fit healthy people with no known serious health problems - just look at the cases.

Oh yes the Sars panic. Now that was going to kill us all as well wasn't it. It's still around you know but it's gone quiet around that one.

Who knows how many if it happens could ten twenty maybe a million but it isn't a certainty.

Have you links for the last comment.

The most likely case at the moment is you get chucked in Hospital suspected of HN51 and die of c diff instead.

[crimsone]

Erm, no... immune response is indeed a killer. You know that pain and aching you get at just about every joint you have with the normal flu? that's caused byt the immune system becoming seriously active. You know when someone developes a high fever through infection (fever being a common killer in olden times - and even now) - that's immune response also.

Magpie is also right in that H5N1 tends to kill the healthy more than the weak. He is right that it is due to immune response also. Specifically, it's to to with the type and scale of immune response in a particular area of the body where an immune response of that type and scale can be lethal - a cytokine cascade. Oddly enough, that means smokers are more likely to survive any pandemic, as nicotine reduces the likelyhood/severeity of cytokine cascade. (this from someone currently quitting!)

[PersianPaladin]

Erm, no... immune response is indeed a killer. You know that pain and aching you get at just about every joint you have with the normal flu? that's caused byt the immune system becoming seriously active. You know when someone developes a high fever through infection (fever being a common killer in olden times - and even now) - that's immune response also.

Magpie is also right in that H5N1 tends to kill the healthy more than the weak. He is right that it is due to immune response also. Specifically, it's to to with the type and scale of immune response in a particular area of the body where an immune response of that type and scale can be lethal - a cytokine cascade. Oddly enough, that means smokers are more likely to survive any pandemic, as nicotine reduces the likelyhood/severeity of cytokine cascade. (this from someone currently quitting!)

An over-reactive immune system is NOT a healthy immune system.

This is basic logic. Why on earth do you think more elderly people die from flu?

I'm sorry...but I'd rather listen to my mother, who works for the NHS and who is qualified to know what she is talking about in this subject.

Edited March 1, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[crimsone]

Depends on how you define over-reactive PP, as I didn't actually use the term.

It is a fact that an immune response in itself can result in a fatal condition. Prolonged fever is such a fairly well known case. It's not a case of the immune system being over-reactive - the immune system simply reacts as appropriate, and can create a fatal reaction in a H5N1 infection in the form of cytokine cascade just as chemical inhalation can produce a fatal reaction in the form of inflammation and resultant pneumonia.

The fact is, the body isn't perfect... The gasp reflex occurs because the brain senses carbon dioxide present, so assumes there must be oxygen, and so it causes you to inhale - perfect for land, but not much use if you are under water and holding your breath. It's a pre-programmed response to a specific situation - and such is the case with the immune system in many cases also.

The very young tend to at risk of seasonal flu because they've not yet developed an immunity to it. The elderly tend to have an immunity to the virus itself (though there are cases of low immune response in elderly people), but are more susceptable to complications arising from flu, such as bronchitis or pneumonia, and less capable of withstanding the stresses on the body that the immune response to the virus brings.

From the FAQ on the WHO website itself...

Unlike normal seasonal influenza, where infection causes only mild respiratory symptoms in most people, the disease caused by H5N1 follows an unusually aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality. Primary viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure are common. In the present outbreak, more than half of those infected with the virus have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults.

Basically, H5N1 overstimulates the immune system (and no, that's not the same as an over-reactive immune system. It does this to normal, otherwise healthy immune systems), and the body kills itself while fighting the virus as a result, usually through pneumonia or multiple organ failure. Essentially, the weaker the immune system, the weaker the strogest response it can prduce is, though the longer it takes to fight the infection off. The stronger your immune system is, the more likely it is to kill you.

With respect PP, unless your mother is a doctor knowlegable in H5N1, the fact that she works in the NHS is niether here nor there, and doesn't make her any more qualified that a random person living on my street. H5N1 is not like normal flu, and the body often cuts off it's own nose to spite its face under certain stimuli.

Edited March 1, 2008 by crimsone

[Bobby]

Thank you Crimsone for saving me the job. Good posts. See this from Wikipedia:

Among the conclusions of this research is that the virus kills via a cytokine storm, which explains its unusually severe nature and the unusual age profile of its victims (the virus caused an overreaction of the body's immune system - strong immune systems (ie young adults) ravaged the body, while weaker immune systems (ie children & middle age adults) caused less morbidity and mortality).

..

The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.[6][8] Another unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old.[10] This is unusual since influenza is normally most deadly to the very young (under age 2) and the very old (over age 70).

Estimates have the Spanish flu affecting 20%-30% of the world population and about 50% caught it in areas that were affected. Not much of a stretch of the imagination to imagine the global infection rate could be much higher with rapid global travel and higher population density.

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/003115.html

Edited March 1, 2008 by Magpie

[The PIT]

It still interesting when we have one disease HN51 killing very very few people yet we have c-diff that's killed 6480 people and still rising. Yet C-dif is hardly mentioned. Hopefully it is due to increasing awareness and reporting but a 72% increase is a very worrying stat and simply dwarves any figures relating to HN51.

Shouldn't you more worried about the increasing rate of C.diff because of this increase. If it's rate continues it's going to make HN51 looked like chicken feed. Well it is already.

[Gray-Wolf]

Of the many times Luke's been on the ward , over the past 11yrs, we've had many instances when he's 'picked something up whilst in'. They've nearly offed him on 3 occasions and so ,even though we have 'open access' to the ward we no longer admit him. Seeing as he was only supposed to survive 14 months, according to their specialists, he's now over twelve so we /he must be doing something right.

Remember Dr's practice........................I waiting for one whose stopped 'practising and is doing it for real!!!!!!

The degradation of ancillary workers and the erosion of their pay/worth has led to slipshod, overstressed, poorly committed crews who have little 'pride' in either their position or work. Imagine if our refuse technicians stopped collecting our trash? how long before such 'lowly' workers massively impacted upon the nations health?

The ignoring of protocols and over prescription of antibiotics as a first recourse also doesn't help our positions.

Luke no longer responds to the lower level anti-erotics seeing as so many were prescribed in his early years (treat the manifestation and ignore the root cause of multiple infections......PAH) and so 'super bugs ' side step our magic bullets and go on unhindered.

H5N1 is a naturally occurring phenomena and it is our insistence to live close to fowl that leads to our problems. Super bugs are down to tardy behaviours at all levels (especially visitors and Doctors).

[The PIT]

Both C Diff and HN51 are natural.

C Diff is killing more than Bird Flu and will do so for a long time yet. The main question is the increase just down to better recording or is due to what should be a worrying increase??

If it is increasing in a couple of years you maybe seeing 20000+ deaths a year from it.

[PersianPaladin]

Both C Diff and HN51 are natural.

C Diff is killing more than Bird Flu and will do so for a long time yet. The main question is the increase just down to better recording or is due to what should be a worrying increase??

If it is increasing in a couple of years you maybe seeing 20000+ deaths a year from it.

Why should it be 'natural' when it occurs in such an artificial environment of hospitals?

H5N1 is a result of people keeping animals and birds in poor conditions, feeding them animals, etc.....I blame the Chinese and their large-scale ignorances in food hygiene for this.

Magpie and Crimsone...thanks for further clarification of that. It seems then that H5N1 is hardly a flu-like virus then.

[Gray-Wolf]

It still interesting when we have one disease H5N1 killing very very few people yet we have c-diff that's killed 6480 people and still rising. Yet C-diff is hardly mentioned. Hopefully it is due to increasing awareness and reporting but a 72% increase is a very worrying stat and simply dwarves any figures relating to H5N1.

Shouldn't you more worried about the increasing rate of C.diff because of this increase. If it's rate continues it's going to make H5N1 looked like chicken feed. Well it is already.

Perspective check.

Doctors tell us the the majority of the increase in C-Diff is better diagnosis (they were popping their clogs with it un-noticed before).

Your knowledge of bird flu 'kills' is brought to you courtesy of WHO who insist on two separate lab confirmations of a positive H5N1 infection.

Most of the regions afflicted by H5N1 are agrarian. Most regions affected are not first world countries blessed with both the infrastructure and medi-care in existence in the 'first world'. Most nations with 'high death rates' have a Muslim majority or live in areas where death/inhumation/cremation occur soon after death.

As such the majority of H5N1 deaths probably go unnoticed or are mis-diagnosed (either through ignorance as secondary infections are what presents on the ward, or by design where the secondary infections are noted alone on the death certificates thus escaping world isolation and economic impacts due to health implications).

I for one take the current 'score' from H5N1 as only indicative of those folk who where 'ensnared ' by the WHO protocols...............a difficult task indeed in many of the nations endemic in H5N1.

[The PIT]

Perspective check.

Doctors tell us the the majority of the increase in C-Diff is better diagnosis (they were popping their clogs with it un-noticed before).

Your knowledge of bird flu 'kills' is brought to you courtesy of WHO who insist on two separate lab confirmations of a positive H5N1 infection.

Most of the regions afflicted by H5N1 are agrarian. Most regions affected are not first world countries blessed with both the infrastructure and medi-care in existence in the 'first world'. Most nations with 'high death rates' have a Muslim majority or live in areas where death/inhumation/cremation occur soon after death.

As such the majority of H5N1 deaths probably go unnoticed or are mis-diagnosed (either through ignorance as secondary infections are what presents on the ward, or by design where the secondary infections are noted alone on the death certificates thus escaping world isolation and economic impacts due to health implications).

I for one take the current 'score' from H5N1 as only indicative of those folk who where 'ensnared ' by the WHO protocols...............a difficult task indeed in many of the nations endemic in H5N1.

Okay so we can debunk thousands of deaths but panic madly of a couple hundred even allowing for misdiagnosis you're going to struggle to get to five hundred cases. Perspective yes that's what you need.