UK weather forecast summary

[Netweather forecasts]

UK weather forecast summary updated 16:00 - Friday 29/02/2008

29/02/2008 - 03/03/2008

Severe Gales tonight, then tuning colder

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[Roger J Smith]

This is a rather strange set-up and I just wanted to offer this analysis and forecast to readers (I hope it will help you enjoy the weekend) ...

Fronts have been dragged south by last night's sharp trough and remnants of these are now decaying over central England in a NW-SE line from about Manchester through B'ham to west of Heathrow. As these fronts weaken somewhat in a WNW flow today, the dominant trend will be towards sunshine to early afternoon, followed by patchy cloud and local showers moving from central Ireland through south Wales towards the Thames valley, and actually some quite mild weather especially to the west of this old frontal boundary which is now likely to stall and drift back to the northeast. Highs could reach 13-15 C in southern England and some parts of inland Wales as well as in southern parts of Ireland, as another warm sector develops ahead of a second low south of Iceland.

Scotland will remain under mostly cloudy skies and the western half will see frequent showers, highs here may be held down to 8-11 C. Another area of gusty winds and showers will move into Northern Ireland about 7 pm but before that, most places will just have a strong westerly breeze of 20-40 mph. By this evening this could increase to 40-60 mph across Northern Ireland and then later across north-central England, with the showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder moving ESE like last night towards the east Midlands and east Anglia. Further south and especially southwest it will remain quite mild well into Sunday, otherwise, Sunday will feature a series of weak troughs promoting variable cloudiness with sunny intervals, and some passing showers or periods of drizzle, and temperatures may peak before noon at about 10-12 C then start dropping off slowly to about 8 C. It could stay very mild in some south coast locations until evening.

Overnight into Monday it will become blustery and squally in some areas with risk of thunder and rain turning to hail or snow especially towards the west and in Ireland. By Monday morning there will be a sharp cooling trend in all eastern districts as well, with showers becoming wintry in many places, hail and snow possible especially at any distance inland or above 100 metres asl.

Monday will remain cold and in some southern districts quite windy, but an embedded low drifting southeast may lead to heavy and wintry showers over northern England, these drifting southeast towards eastern England, but winds in this zone will be more variable and sometimes not very strong unless a convective cell intensifies near your location. Temperatures on Monday seem likely to drop slightly below freezing in most places outside of greater London and the immediate southwest coast, and recover only to about 6 or 7 C at best.

-- Roger Smith (please note, this is not an official NW forecast, just my personal offering for the occasion of Mad Hatters Day)

Edited March 1, 2008 by Roger J Smith