Winter 2007-08 - What went wrong. Why was it mild?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, we have now come to the end of another mild winter in the UK, much like the way that most winters of the last 20 years have been in the UK. I have opened this thread to discuss what went wrong to prevent it from being a cold winter, and why there has been an almost complete lack of northern blocking over Greenland / Scandinavia and northerly and easterly outbreaks, and as is often the case with a lack of these patterns, this winter snowfall has been in very short supply for most areas, and about as poor for snow as the winters of 2001-02 and 1999-2000, and even 1991-92 in many areas.

Signs that a strong La Nina would develop this winter were already making it look very unlikely that this winter would be cold even by November, as if you look at past records, there has never been a cold winter in the UK with a strong La Nina. There is evidence to suggest that weak to moderate La Ninas are a good sign for a colder winter, but if you look at the strong La Nina years, 1999-2000, 1998-99, 1988-89, 1975-76, 1973-74, 1949-50, 1942-43, all of them have been mild in the UK with little in the way of spells of northern blocking / northerly / easterly outbreaks (although most have been less mild overall than 1988-89). So, in other words, the 2007-08 winter has almost completely repeated the pattern of the other strong La Nina winters listed.

It was already becoming noticeable in November, as HP over the UK or west of Ireland attempted to ridge up into Greenland the block could not form there or establish itself far enough north to give the UK a long draw northerly outbreak, and with the persistently cold stratosphere in the early to mid-winter coupled with the effects of the strong La Nina, spells of northern blocking this winter were never going to happen. By and large this winter has seen persistent low pressure through the GIN corridor (most especially during January) with hardly any days where a HP block has sat in a location where it can advect deep cold Arctic air over the UK from the north or east. The CET for December, did however manage to be close to average thanks to a anticyclonic block that sat over or to the east of the UK for ten days around mid-month allowing a temperature inversion to develop and a cold frosty spell for many areas with some fog. February although a mild month overall did manage to be less mild overall than January thanks to a week's spell in the third week with severe frosts and some fog at times with a pattern similar to mid-December. Certainly there has been hardly any days where deep cold Arctic air has covered the UK, and the colder spells that we have had have come from anticyclonic inversion conditions.

I have now established the main reasons why northern blocking didn't happen at any time this winter, strong La Nina especially west based, and persistently cold stratosphere in early to mid winter was only a combination to encourage strong energy in the northern arm of the jet and cyclogenesis through the GIN corridor. Now, part two of this discussion thread is to discuss why the zonality brought mild to very mild conditions and what went wrong to prevent this winter's zonal patterns never to be of a cold polar maritime origin. Although a zonal pattern is often associated with milder than average conditions in winter in the UK, and is how many people associate zonality, looking through the archives, there have been occasions where a zonal pattern has in actual fact brought cold weather and a good deal of snow to the UK such as in January 1984 for example which apart from by me is rarely quoted by anyone else on the forum.

The orientation of a zonal pattern / zonal flow is the key to whether it is mild or not in winter in the UK - just in the same way that the orientation of a Scandinavian High is the key to whether an easterly is cold or not. If a zonal flow sees a south-west to north-east track of depressions the UK with the Azores High further north or east (a Bartlett High) the UK is almost always in the tropical maritime sectors of the Atlantic low pressures, as the W'ly / SW'ly winds have a source near the Gulf Stream, whilst areas 1000 miles or more north-west or even west of the UK can be in cold zonality (polar maritime air). However, if a zonal flow sees more of a north-west to south-east track of depressions with the Azores High well out to the SW, (still with persistent cyclogenesis in the GIN corridor) Scotland at least sees very cold weather and even England & Wales can still see spells of below average temperatures as the zonal flow over the UK is of a polar maritime origin with the westerlies / north-westerlies having a source near Greenland.

The main thing that I have been totally dissapointed with this winter, is why did we get zonality of this awful mild type all January:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120080115.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120080120.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120080126.gif

I have just been devostated and heartbroken that we didn't get zonality of this type:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119840126.gif

The above charts illustrate the difference between mild zonality and cold zonality (note the lack of northern blocking in all charts) and clearly shows how only a change in the orientation of the zonal pattern can bring much colder conditions and snowfall for many areas instead of mild rain.

So, whilst I have discussed some of the main reasons as to what went wrong as to why northern blocking didn't happen this winter, I haven't a clue as to the reasons as to what went wrong as to why we never got cold zonality like January 1984.

There have also been good instances of cold zonality in January 1978, February 1970 and 1973, March 1995, December 1993 and others if you look at the chart archives.

It should be pointed out that although January 1984 was classic cold zonal, the winter of 1983-84 was by no means a cold winter overall and statistically it was regarded as average overall. The second half of December saw very mild zonal, and then the zonal pattern orientated into much colder zonal for January, and then February was largely anticyclonic dry and cold.

The stratosphere did warm up somewhat during February and we still have not had anything much better.

Consider below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ALL_NH_1984.gif

You will notice that the stratosphere wasn't especially warm during January 1984, more average with brief warming events, and cooler than it has been during Feb 2008, so for goodness sake why have we still not had cold zonality like January 1984 in Feb 2008 and even now.

I am just absolutely cheesed off that we have had a number of cooler summer months in the past that were cool zonal (westerlies with a source near Greenland) yet we have far less often had that setup during winter.

Considering how the exceptional warmth of winter 2006-07 was and how winter 2007-08 has panned out too, can we expect an improvement for 2008-09 or will it be a dead loss and the worst again for 2008-09? Will me looking through the models when zonal patterns develop for a cold zonal pattern similar to January 1984 be a dead loss again or will we ever finally get a repeat of the cold zonality of January 1984, or better still, a cold winter similar to 1995-96 or better like the mid 1980s or 1978-79 next winter or the year after or in any winter?

Edited March 1, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Clearly since the latter half of the century strong La Nina has not been good for a cold UK winter and so it has proved this winter. Since then the NMP has been moving further NW as RJS has informed us and we seem to be stuck in a milder pattern. I personally am not holding out for a cold winter until at least 2010 for the UK although I think harsh winters for the NH have started and we will eventually join in.

The Atlantic is on the warm side of average particularly the part that affects us and has been for sometime but that is just again a cycle/natural and will change at some stage. A brief response at this time as a bit busy at present with work.

BFTP

[The PIT]

Actually did the Winter didn't go wrong?? It was forecast to be mild but not as mild as last year. On both accounts this was right. So it was as I expected. Strong La Nina's have shown us what to expect and now I'm wondering about summer. IF La Nina persists wetter than last summer????

[Lettucing Gutted]

The Atlantic is on the warm side of average particularly the part that affects us and has been for sometime but that is just again a cycle/natural and will change at some stage. A brief response at this time as a bit busy at present with work.

BFTP

The recent toasty than average northeast Atlantic has also tipped the odds from cool zonality in favor of mild zonality. Aside from a volcanic eruption I think the only other way we would see cool zonal winter months comparable with January 1984 would for a mini NAD (North Atlantic Deep Water) shutdown.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The recent toasty than average northeast Atlantic has also tipped the odds from cool zonality in favor of mild zonality. Aside from a volcanic eruption I think the only other way we would see cool zonal winter months comparable with January 1984 would for a mini NAD (North Atlantic Deep Water) shutdown.

Craig, are you trying to imply that warm SSTs in the North Atlantic have altered the odds to favour zonality to be of a SW - NE orientation. Also, what is a North Atlantic Deep Water Shutdown. Was there one in January 1984, or a volcanic eruption. All we need is for the orientation of the zonal pattern to change to a more NW-SE track and for the Azores High to be further SW for us to see the likes of Jan 1984. The main thing that has gone wrong this winter (07-08) has been that zonality has not been cold like Jan 1984, apart from northern blocking which has never occurred.

I would love to see a repeat of January 1984, a month without parallel as one of the snowiest months on record for Scotland and higher ground in northern England. It was often rain in the south as milder air often fed into the south and on lower ground in northern England it was rain for the first half but it did turn to snow around the 23rd in the south and was very snowy in the second half in the north. I remember it well, there was no northern blocking and forecasters were often on about the amount of snow in Scotland and northern England but they often said snow would fall in the south but it was often rain until around the 23rd. From my location in West Yorkshire I can personally recall heavy snow that month frequently for around ten days in the second half. A Jan 1984 type pattern is definitely the best for a wide variety of weather ranging from heavy and frequent rain, gales, cold days and frosts and heavy snow too in many areas.

Just what will ever put a stop to mild zonality? To have to live through the rubbish mild zonality that has by and large wrecked this winter and last one and many others for 20 years is just unbearable, and for zonality not to deliver like in 1984. The only thing that is giving us mild zonality as opposed to cold zonality like January 1984 is the wrong orientation of the zonal flow. Iceland still get cold zonality similar to what the UK got in January 1984, so why doesen't it happen in the UK?

Will we ever see a zonal pattern similar to January 1984 during the winter months EVER AGAIN!

[Gavin P]

Well, eventually the Atlantic should cool naturally. A lot of the Atlantic warming of the last 20 years is down to the AMO, and thats a natural cycle of Ocean warming and cooling. Some (Joe B'astardi is one) believes that strong and more frequent La Nina episode's are the start of the Atlantic entering it cool AMO phase.

NEB, you've been told time and time again that the situation in January 1984 was utterly unique and indeed could be viewed as a freak event. The depth and intensity of cold that came out of Canada and flooded into the Atlantic was without precident. You've been told this time and time again, so why still keep going on about Jan 84, I don't know.

Edited March 1, 2008 by Gavin P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well, eventually the Atlantic should cool naturally. A lot of the Atlantic warming of the last 20 years is down to the AMO, and thats a natural cycle of Ocean warming and cooling. Some (Joe B'astardi is one) believes that strong and more frequent La Nina episode's are the start of the Atlantic entering it cool AMO phase.

Gav

Indeed we have entered the perturbation cycle...a cycle of about 36yrs where La Nina becomes the dominant ENSO phase.

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

The winter was mild, I think, largely because of the polar vortex settling around Iceland. It's been the main feature of most recent winters, stopping Scandinavian Highs from getting far west enough to bring proper easterly incursions to Britain, and helping to render any northerlies transient, and forcing polar maritime westerlies to "return" a longer distance over the Atlantic.

I think to get the classic "cold zonality" setup, as well as needing a jet tracking NW-SE, it either needs a Greenland High to help direct Arctic air into our westerly flows, or alternatively a high positioned west of Greenland and filtering very cold air into the eastern USA/Canada, which then heads straight across the Atlantic to Britain. January 2008 came close to reproducing the latter setup, but pressure was consistently low around Iceland forcing the cold airmass to take a long track over the Atlantic, a bit like Januarys 1994 and 1999. However the month was different in character because the secondary lows were more vigorous and tracked further north, resulting in a dull wet month rather than the "sunshine and showers" that dominated most of Januarys 1994 and 1999.

NEB says nobody else posts about cold zonality, but I've posted about it from time to time, most especially during my years at Lancaster University. A trawl through the archives reveals that January 1984 was extreme for persistence of the setup, and that normally such a setup rarely sustains for more than a few days to a week, take early March 1995 for example. But odds against it are much longer nowadays because of a more northerly tracking jet and higher SSTs bringing more modification. Ironically we're set to have a brief "cold zonality" episode on 3 March 2008.

I agree with Mr Data et al. that this constant referencing to January 1984, and questioning "why don't we get cold zonality any more" when many of us have repeatedly answered that question, gets rather tiresome. We all have our favourite weather types, and months we associate with them- I was quite partial to Spring 1995 in the Tyne & Wear area for example, and many members fondly remember the following summer, but referencing the same month repeatedly in every other post smacks of obsession. Indeed, it's worth pointing out that while January '84 was certainly a very snowy month from the Midlands northwards, it was mild and not particularly snowy in the south- and indeed some other cold zonal months have produced rather more snow in the south (Jan '78 for instance).

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, eventually the Atlantic should cool naturally. A lot of the Atlantic warming of the last 20 years is down to the AMO, and thats a natural cycle of Ocean warming and cooling. Some (Joe B'astardi is one) believes that strong and more frequent La Nina episode's are the start of the Atlantic entering it cool AMO phase.

NEB, you've been told time and time again that the situation in January 1984 was utterly unique and indeed could be viewed as a freak event. The depth and intensity of cold that came out of Canada and flooded into the Atlantic was without precident. You've been told this time and time again, so why still keep going on about Jan 84, I don't know.

I never realised that great depths of cold flooded the Atlantic in January 1984, from what I can see from the charts it was basically a NW-SE track of depressions that allowed the zonal W'lies / NW'lies to reach the UK from a much colder source near Greenland instead of from the Gulf Stream, and that was even with the polar vortex sat over Greenland and Iceland much of the time.

I often make references to January 1984 as I just totally cheesed off and certainly for me it is the most annoying aspect of the British Weather in anything we get in the whole year that zonality almost never orientates in a January 1984 type setup during the winter months. I have just faced dissapointment winter after winter when looking through the models for a zonal pattern similar to Jan 1984 and all we get is mild zonality that delivers just very uninteresting mild muck. I have just had enough and would love a repeat of Jan 1984. My reasearch through the daily weather summaries at the Met Office Library in Exeter reveals to me that January 1984 was certainly one of the snowiest months on record for Scotland and high ground in northern England. I find it so depressing that I may never see the likes of Jan 1984 let alone a winter like 1978-79 or 1962-63 in my lifetime, or even a winter like 1995-96.

Another winter of my life has just passed by with not a single occurrence of a spell of northerly or easterly weather or Greeny / Scandy Highs and by and large awful mild zonality most of the time that is not cold zonal like Jan 1984 / 1978 / Mar 1995 / Dec 1993 etc, just another winter like most of the very unexciting mild winters in the last 20 years.

Re the situation in January 1984 being very unique, there was also some good cold zonality in January 1978 and that was quite a cold month too, never that mild and a number of cold spells and very snowy at times in the north, and that never saw any Greenland / Scandinavian highs and proper northerlies and easterlies and it still managed a CET that was slightly below average. I do agree that cold zonality in Jan 1978 did produce more snowfall for southern areas than Jan 1984 did, and in many ways Januarys 1978 and 1984 were synoptically very similar. March 1995 saw some pretty good cold zonality especially in the first week, and again in the final week as well, and was the snowiest March of the 1990s.

Edited March 1, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[damianslaw]

Don't throw in the towel on our winters just yet, okay the trend over the last 20 years has been towards mild affairs with only brief cold snaps, but mother nature can throw anything at us at anytime it decides, their is no fast hardened rule book when it comes to the weather...especially our weather.

I personally feel that a shocker will arrive on our doorstep in the next few years dispelling the myth that we can't ever get cold like we used to. We seem to be in a cycle of mild winters and warm summers at present, something will appear to disrupt this I'm sure, perhaps as some have quoted a major volacanic eruption may happen altering temporarily weather conditions... it would be interesting if anyone has any weather statistics about the effects of serious volcanic eruptions on british climate. I have read in the past that many have been followed by unusually cold conditions.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The winter was mild, I think, largely because of the polar vortex settling around Iceland. It's been the main feature of most recent winters, stopping Scandinavian Highs from getting far west enough to bring proper easterly incursions to Britain, and helping to render any northerlies transient, and forcing polar maritime westerlies to "return" a longer distance over the Atlantic.

I think to get the classic "cold zonality" setup, as well as needing a jet tracking NW-SE, it either needs a Greenland High to help direct Arctic air into our westerly flows, or alternatively a high positioned west of Greenland and filtering very cold air into the eastern USA/Canada, which then heads straight across the Atlantic to Britain. January 2008 came close to reproducing the latter setup, but pressure was consistently low around Iceland forcing the cold airmass to take a long track over the Atlantic, a bit like Januarys 1994 and 1999. However the month was different in character because the secondary lows were more vigorous and tracked further north, resulting in a dull wet month rather than the "sunshine and showers" that dominated most of Januarys 1994 and 1999.

NEB says nobody else posts about cold zonality, but I've posted about it from time to time, most especially during my years at Lancaster University. A trawl through the archives reveals that January 1984 was extreme for persistence of the setup, and that normally such a setup rarely sustains for more than a few days to a week, take early March 1995 for example. But odds against it are much longer nowadays because of a more northerly tracking jet and higher SSTs bringing more modification. Ironically we're set to have a brief "cold zonality" episode on 3 March 2008.

I agree with Mr Data et al. that this constant referencing to January 1984, and questioning "why don't we get cold zonality any more" when many of us have repeatedly answered that question, gets rather tiresome. We all have our favourite weather types, and months we associate with them- I was quite partial to Spring 1995 in the Tyne & Wear area for example, and many members fondly remember the following summer, but referencing the same month repeatedly in every other post smacks of obsession. Indeed, it's worth pointing out that while January '84 was certainly a very snowy month from the Midlands northwards, it was mild and not particularly snowy in the south- and indeed some other cold zonal months have produced rather more snow in the south (Jan '78 for instance).

In actual fact the first half of January 2008 wasn't too bad in Scotland as cold polar maritime air in the zonal flow did cover Scotland at times and gave some snow there, but it was still pretty much mild zonality in England & Wales before very mild zonality affected the whole of the UK in the second half of the month. You are correct re Januarys 1994 and 1999, they were not totally mild zonal throughout and not too bad at times and colder zonality did occur at times but mild zonality did occur frequently - in other words Jan 1994 and 1999 were "average" zonal months, in between cold and mild zonal. Another month that featured cold zonality was December 1999, which was colder than average north of the Scottish Border but rather mild in the south of England. Much of the zonality in Dec 1999 was of a polar maritime origin. November 1996 saw some cold zonality at times although much of the cold spells that month were from long draw northerlies.

Nevertheless, in the last 20 years and more especially since 1996 cold zonality has become even rarer than northerlies / easterlies in the UK, and the complete lack of it represents in my view the biggest change seen in the weather patterns in the UK. To deny that something hasn't changed is deluding the evidence. Something certainly changed around 1988 and again in 1996 that has significantly reduced the ability for northerlies / easterlies and severe cold in the UK to develop during the winter months and more so for cold zonality to orientate.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The thing you'll find about January 1984, or indeed pretty much any other month with a lot of cold zonality, is that for the setup to work, it requires more than just NW-SE track of depressions. Usually, a high will be situated either over Greenland, or to the north and/or west of Greenland, pumping very cold Arctic air into the eastern USA/Canada or Atlantic. This air will then spread east to Britain.

It also requires there not to be a large polar vortex around Greenland and/or stagnant low pressure around Iceland. My undergraduate dissertation, which compared the tracks of January depressions from 1967 to 2002, showed that the depressions took a very similar track during Januarys 1994 and 1999 as they did in 1968, 1978 and 1984. However, Januarys 1994 and 1999 both had a stronger Icelandic Low and so the airmasses had to return a much longer distance over the Atlantic, so they were much more modified by the time they reached Britain.

January 2008 had the same problem as those of 1994 and 1999- the polar air kept having to return a long distance over the Atlantic. Hence, the fact that Scotland, which received the airmasses with the least modification, did have some marginal snow events (this was also true of 1994 and 1999).

The setup can still arise- as I mentioned in passing, it's likely to arise very briefly on 3 March 2008. But it is, unfortunately, the setup that is likely to diminish the most rapidly as the globe warms up and the SSTs rise, as it's traditionally associated with the most marginal snowfalls. I've had plenty of discussions with Stratos Ferric on this and we've both reached pretty much the same conclusions. But, it will require a lot of warming before it becomes practically impossible for northerlies to deliver snow to northern Britain, or for easterlies to deliver snow to southern Britain.

[PersianPaladin]

Its not mainly La Nina though...because 1999\2000 had a stronger La Nina and was better for snow events.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The thing you'll find about January 1984, or indeed pretty much any other month with a lot of cold zonality, is that for the setup to work, it requires more than just NW-SE track of depressions. Usually, a high will be situated either over Greenland, or to the north and/or west of Greenland, pumping very cold Arctic air into the eastern USA/Canada or Atlantic. This air will then spread east to Britain.

It also requires there not to be a large polar vortex around Greenland and/or stagnant low pressure around Iceland. My undergraduate dissertation, which compared the tracks of January depressions from 1967 to 2002, showed that the depressions took a very similar track during Januarys 1994 and 1999 as they did in 1968, 1978 and 1984. However, Januarys 1994 and 1999 both had a stronger Icelandic Low and so the airmasses had to return a much longer distance over the Atlantic, so they were much more modified by the time they reached Britain.

January 2008 had the same problem as those of 1994 and 1999- the polar air kept having to return a long distance over the Atlantic. Hence, the fact that Scotland, which received the airmasses with the least modification, did have some marginal snow events (this was also true of 1994 and 1999).

The setup can still arise- as I mentioned in passing, it's likely to arise very briefly on 3 March 2008. But it is, unfortunately, the setup that is likely to diminish the most rapidly as the globe warms up and the SSTs rise, as it's traditionally associated with the most marginal snowfalls. I've had plenty of discussions with Stratos Ferric on this and we've both reached pretty much the same conclusions. But, it will require a lot of warming before it becomes practically impossible for northerlies to deliver snow to northern Britain, or for easterlies to deliver snow to southern Britain.

Since especially the mid 1990s the average UK surface temperature seems to have warmed by a greater amount than the global surface temperature. Another major concern of mine is that for the last ten years plus SSTs in the North Atlantic have been consistently above average and the last time SSTs were widely below average in the North Atlantic was in the 1993-94 winter.

January 1984 cold zonality was certainly far from being associated with the most marginal snowfalls - it was associated with one of the snowiest months on record for Scotland and high ground in northern England, plus marginal snow events in the south.

Not sure about January 2008 having the same problem as 1994 and 1999 - those Januarys were quite a bit less mild than in Jan 2008.

Edited March 1, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[azores92]

the question is; what does next winter hold, and is it gonna be a lot better than what we have had so far? i personally believe that this warming trend cycle may be broken next year as a one-off, but noone knows. the charts throughout 2008 show a mixed bag, some months well above average and some below. winter of next year hasn't been predicted yet, so we shall have to wait and see. what do we think?

Edited March 1, 2008 by azores92

[Thundery wintry showers]

The reason why January 2008 was so much warmer in the south than 1994 and 1999 was the more vigorous secondary low development, with the secondary lows generally deeper, tracking further north and bringing more in the way of warm sectors to the south. The primary lows took pretty much the same track.

I agree, though, that the secondary lows were an additional issue, which would have been more apparent if lowest pressure had been centred over towards Scandinavia rather than Iceland.

I still think the point about the cold zonal setups being most marginal is accurate. January '84 in Scotland, Ireland and N England and high ground of the Midlands was remarkable for the amount of snow that fell (being both cold enough for snow, and outstandingly wet) but although there were some very cold nights over the snowfields around the 20th, there weren't many instances of lowland snow occurring at temperatures well below freezing. In contrast, our most potent northerlies have delivered snowfalls at -5C and below over Scotland, and the easterlies of January 1987 and February 1991 produced snow at similar temps over much of England. Intensity of snowfall and intensity of cold are two separate things.

In addition cold zonal setups are most sensitive to higher SSTs because there is more ocean for the airmass to pass over before it reaches Britain.

[mushymanrob]

nothing 'went wrong'...

we had a normal winter which was far more frosty then many recent winters.

[snowray]

Yes it was more frosy thats true, recent winters have generally been so mobile that frosty conditions have been in short suply, particularly round these parts.

[Troubleatmill]

nothing 'went wrong'...

we had a normal winter which was far more frosty then many recent winters.

Yep that about right mushy, mild wet windy & grey is just about the normal british winter

[PersianPaladin]

Yep that about right mushy, mild wet windy & grey is just about the normal british winter

Some of the denial posts here are beyond rediculous.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Normal for recent years maybe, but in the long-term context it was pretty mild:

December 4.9 (-0.2)

January 6.6 (+2.4)

February 5.4 (+1.2)

I make it at 1.1C above the 1971-2000 average, and 1.5C above the 1961-90 average. In terms of all reference periods bar the 10-year running mean, this was a mild winter- not exceptionally mild, but mild nonetheless.

[reef]

Well, it was another rubbish winter here. It averaged 5.9C (+1.4C), making it the 5th warmest in the last 25 years. It contained 10 air frosts compared to the long-term average of 18. Snow amounts were ridiculously low, with 3 days with it falling and only 1 day lying (6 days is average). Not to mention we had the first frostless January ever.

Using Mr Data's winter index, over the last 5 winters:

2003/04: 46

2004/05: 36

2005/06: 53

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

Marginally worse than last winter, says it all really.

Edited March 1, 2008 by reef

[snowray]

Well, it was another rubbish winter here. It averaged 5.9C (+1.4C), making it the 5th warmest in the last 25 years. It contained 10 air frosts compared to the long-term average of 18. Snow amounts were ridiculously low, with 3 days with it falling and only 1 day lying (6 days is average). Not to mention we had the first frostless January ever.

Using Mr Data's winter index, over the last 5 winters:

2003/04: 46

2004/05: 36

2005/06: 53

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

Marginally worse than last winter, says it all really.

Thought it was worse than last Winter which although it was pretty poor over all, managed to produce two small snowfalls round here, no snow events this Winter. So when did we last hit 100? And how high were the realy severe Winters of the past such as 47 and 63 I wonder.

[osmposm]

we had a normal winter which was far more frosty then many recent winters.

I beg to differ, mmr. As Reef mentioned in passing, January was entirely air frost-free in much of the South, something that is very rare: I know of only one other example since (at least) the 1950s, and that was 1990. In the south-east at least, the greater number of frosts than last year was mainly down to the persistent high pressure area that sat just to our east in the middle of December: the air associated with it was not really cold, but the air was clear (and the nights long).

Other than that, February produced a brief incursion of cooler air at the beginning that just gave a frost in rural areas, and a more robust (but still short) cold snap mid-month that delivered four sharper frosts - but nothing much below -3C (away from frost hollows). The days, too, in this cold snap were not really cold - all were near or well above +5C.

In fact the whole winter has failed to produce anything even approaching an ice day - the lowest daytime maximum I found for Epping (semi rural Essex) was +3.1 on 21 Dec. In the winter before (2006-7), Dec, Jan & Feb all produced days with maxes below +2C.

[keithtod43]

nothing 'went wrong'...

we had a normal winter which was far more frosty then many recent winters.

A person at last who speaks a lot of sense this isent a even larger teapot just a normal winter average temps with as normal the only snow we have is in march.