Winter 2007-08 - What went wrong. Why was it mild?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Normal for recent years maybe, but in the long-term context it was pretty mild:

December 4.9 (-0.2)

January 6.6 (+2.4)

February 5.4 (+1.2)

I make it at 1.1C above the 1971-2000 average, and 1.5C above the 1961-90 average. In terms of all reference periods bar the 10-year running mean, this was a mild winter- not exceptionally mild, but mild nonetheless.

The CET is not the only perception of a winter. The winter of 1991-92 was only slightly above average overall but it was extremely unexciting both in weather and its synoptics - HP over the UK all winter, and virtually snowless - so a winter like that isn't really any better than this winter just gone.

Winter 2007-08 was certainly mild, and certainly even one of the poorer winters of recent years. 2003-04 and 2004-05 were better than 07-08, 2003-04 although milder than average overall still managed some interesting northerly synoptics at times and many areas reached average snowfall, and even winter 2003-04 was snowier than some winters with a lower CET, and 2004-05 managed some very good synoptics in February and snowfall in many areas - the only point was that there was no deep cold over Europe to reach the UK and so snow did not lie on low ground - but it was still an interesting spell of weather synoptically nonetheless.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For Cleadon, the winter quarter was the most snowless since I started recording in 1993, with just 5 days of snow falling (easily the lowest recorded) and 1 day of snow lying (equal lowest alongside 1998 and 2000).

1998 was the most comparably snowless as it had only 7 days of sleet or snow falling, while 1999/2000 had 14 days.

I tried using Mr Data's winter index out of curiosity and provisionally, the index of 22 was the lowest since 1997/98 (which had an index of 17, due to the exceptional warmth of February as well as the snowlessness)

[Snowyowl9]

Its not mainly La Nina though...because 1999\2000 had a stronger La Nina and was better for snow events.

1998/99 gave more snow too with that also a la nina winter should compare it with that year more with it being the 1st of 2 years.

Cold zonality at it`s best in the late 90`s as good as it gets then, As this gave 3 inches with drifting from a SW-ly bizzare I know may happen early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119990117.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219990117.gif

Those winters gave larger more severe wind storms to this year also,but this winter gave much more settled dryer spells to then like december and feb with more frosts.

Edited March 1, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

Cleadon got rather lucky during winter 1998/99 (as did Norwich, I believe) with 14 days of snow falling and 8 of snow lying, although admittedly apart from the 5cm on the morning of 9 February 1999 the 8 days were mainly just dustings. Most other parts of the country had somewhat less snow, although still, except perhaps in parts of southern Scotland, there was generally more snow about than there has been this winter.

I don't think the lack of snow this winter can be blamed entirely on the La Nina, I think the underlying trend of higher SSTs in the Atlantic and around the UK has got to have something to do with it (I hesitate to say "higher global temperature" for once, because January 2008's global temperature was very close to the average)

[Jonnie G]

Normal for recent years maybe, but in the long-term context it was pretty mild:

December 4.9 (-0.2)

January 6.6 (+2.4)

February 5.4 (+1.2)

I make it at 1.1C above the 1971-2000 average, and 1.5C above the 1961-90 average. In terms of all reference periods bar the 10-year running mean, this was a mild winter- not exceptionally mild, but mild nonetheless.

Current five year rolling averages are:-

February 4.9C

December 5.2C

January 5.8C

The January figure is the highest in the CET series, having previously peaked at 5.4C in 1737. I was surprised to find that the five year rolling mean for February fell to 1.9C in 1987, the lowest five year period since before 1700 when the temperature readings are to the nearest 0.5C, and presumably not so reliable. The five year rolling mean to January 1943 came in at 1.8C, the coldest January period of the 20th century, however Januarys have been through much colder spells than this, being as low as 0.6C for the 5 years to 1815, and 0.8C upto 1780. It seems that January really is the month that's put in the most warming historically, and is presumably therefore the month with the most potential for cooling off again at some point.

Edited March 1, 2008 by Jonnie G

[mettalfabrik]

not much wrong down here in somerset,same winter we get most years,a tad colder and more frost than of recent years

[echobase]

not much wrong down here in somerset,same winter we get most years,a tad colder and more frost than of recent years

:lol: :lol: going to bed unless someone is still out there !!!

[Snowyowl9]

The winter of 1991-92 was only slightly above average overall but it was extremely unexciting both in weather and its synoptics - HP over the UK all winter, and virtually snowless - so a winter like that isn't really any better than this winter just gone.

As I`ve never seen a winter with no snowfall yet 1991/92 the lowest I`ve recorded only had 8 days with either snow falling or either lying.

Where as this one has had 14 days, oh I`ve included november there though on both.

Hopefully March and April will produce a few inches to make up for it.

[suffolkboy_]

First absolutely snowless winter here in living memory to most people around here. Very unusual to not see it falling at all, not even sleet! As usual though, March looks as if it will give us a reminder that it still isn't true spring yet, at least for some.

Some have been saying about the frosts. I actually saw very few, but it has still been better than winters in the past. I remember one particaular winter when I don't think we saw a frost until the end of February.

Without the cold period before Christmas, this winter would have looked alot worse statistically than it does.

[Duncan McAlister]

Even though I had two dustings of snow, which is two more than last year, it was a bit of a disappointment. But then again, 28th warmest winter doesn't sound all that warm

Edited March 1, 2008 by Duncan McAlister

[Snowyowl9]

Cleadon got rather lucky during winter 1998/99 (as did Norwich, I believe) with 14 days of snow falling and 8 of snow lying, although admittedly apart from the 5cm on the morning of 9 February 1999 the 8 days were mainly just dustings. Most other parts of the country had somewhat less snow, although still, except perhaps in parts of southern Scotland, there was generally more snow about than there has been this winter.

I don't think the lack of snow this winter can be blamed entirely on the La Nina, I think the underlying trend of higher SSTs in the Atlantic and around the UK has got to have something to do with it (I hesitate to say "higher global temperature" for once, because January 2008's global temperature was very close to the average)

Actually just had another look and 1998/99 gave 16 days with either snow falling or any snow lying however small to 3 inches the most then,to this winter`s 12 so not an awful alot of difference there (incl nov on both which gave 2 inches this time).

Frosts 1998/99 wasn`t bad either considering it was a la nina with I worked it out as 23 air to 21 ground/as this time 22 air to 29 ground frosts.

Following year 1999/2000 gave 6 more days of snow and only 18 air frosts/25 ground frosts.

[azores92]

Actually just had another look and 1998/99 gave 16 days with either snow falling or any snow lying however small to 3 inches the most then,to this winter`s 12 so not an awful alot of difference there (incl nov on both which gave 2 inches this time).

Frosts 1998/99 wasn`t bad either considering it was a la nina with I worked it out as 23 air to 21 ground/as this time 22 air to 29 ground frosts.

Following year 1999/2000 gave 6 more days of snow and only 18 air frosts/25 ground frosts.

to summarise record breaking temperatures hit part of central england(-10), with plentiful frosts, and snow was in very short supply. come on next winter, just imagine what would happen if 1963 happened all over again. the website would have to close down due to so many posts!

[Marcus_surfer]

We have not had any snow yet here in South Wales, which is pretty boring. January was rather wet overall and mild but february wasnt too bad, we had plenty of mild and sunny days, 18C was reached in NW wales which is exceptional. We had plenty of frosts for here too, around 6 or 7 mornings with a widespread frost.

It wasnt a cold winter, though saying that, The scottish mountains had plenty of snow, i would say over 20 days of snow falling in the Cairngorms or more with the resort having it's best snow in years.

[Aby]

I think peoples perception of a normal UK winter is "wrong".

Read it and read it again.

[Marduk]

Here in Stockholm we have also seen this winter as an extremely mild one, no very cold temps and barely no long prevailed snow cover at all with temps much much higher than the normal ones. November was the only month with somewhat 'normal' temps, i measured +3,8'c as avg. high temp and -1,0'c as min. It felt quite chilly during that month and it fell some snow, in the middle of the month fell 30+ cm 15 km south of Stockholm which is extremely much! And the months after november where very disappointing, it didn't get really colder than it was that month, and that avg was 'repeated 'in every month after it, making especially jan and feb unwintry months with anomalies like 5 degrees above the norm. Now it seems that the beginning of march will prevail with the coldest temps during this winter!

[osmposm]

I think peoples perception of a normal UK winter is "wrong".....Read it and read it again.

Not quite sure in which direction you think it's wrong - I suspect from a previous post that you think (like some others) that this was a "normal" winter for the UK, not a mild one. Others have even suggested it was colder than some recent ones.

So, one statistic that I will give yet again. Since 1955, the statistically coldest (or equal coldest) month of the year, January, had no air frost at all for only the second time in at least 54 years - the other year was 1990 - in most of the south of the country. I'm not sure where you live (could you perhaps put it on your avatar for us?), but that is a significant fact. And the vast majority of the air frosts in the south this winter came not from deep cold air over the country, but from a settled anticyclone with clear skies in mid-December when the nights were at their longest.

The second statistic I will give you is, I think, new, and relates directly to how people perceive the weather: it's to do with days we may think of as 'cold', let's say with a max no higher than +3C. Using the figures for Hampstead, North London since 1961-62 - the station is on the Heath, so semi-rural, and high up, so no 'frost hollow' effect possible. Among those 47 winters, only three (about 1 in 16) have failed to produce a single day with a max below +3C, and one of those was this one (the other two were 88-9 & 89-90).

It's possible that we will have one in March, but don't hold your breath: in all of those those 47 winters, every March day colder than even +5C max came at the end of a winter that had already had a day below +3C.

However you cut it, in the south at least this has been an exceptionally mild winter.

[NorthernRab]

I don't think there's any doubt that this winter was a mild one. People would argue that there have been a reasonable (not brilliant of course) number of snow events. However, snow and cold are two different things as we all know; a winter can be a lot colder from generally very low temperatures and no snow than one with average temperatures and a few big snow events. I think the only thing that went wrong is natural variability and global warming. I'm a bit unsure about global warming, and don't know quite where I stand when it comes to this opinion yet. We can hope that winter 2008-09 will be a cold one, but I'm quite disappointed because I'm moving to Glasgow in September. 'Bye-bye my Highland winters! x'

[The Eagle]

Whats in store for Ireland tomorrow?

Latest Sat Pic

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images...00803030200.jpg

[DR Hosking]

Winter here averaged 5.566c thats 0.7 above average. I actually think this winter has been ok, OK if you want snow then its been a disaster for this area but it was 0.66c colder than last winter. I happen to think that because a winter is mild its not necessarily a disaster in terms of snow, that is more determined by weather patterns. As I said last winter was 0.66c warmer than this and the mildest winter for an age, however last winter was the snowiest here for a decade! we had 3 decent snow events, the best giving us 10 inches of snow. This winter we have had none!

On the other hand we have had far more frosts then last winter, I havent counted them up but I reckon this winter has been the frostiest for a while where I live.

I assume people on here talking about a frostless January are talking about air frost and not ground frosts? I live in the south yet I had several ground frosts in January and at least one air frost.

[Stratos Ferric]

to summarise record breaking temperatures hit part of central england(-10), with plentiful frosts, and snow was in very short supply. come on next winter, just imagine what would happen if 1963 happened all over again. the website would have to close down due to so many posts!

I'm intrigued as to which records were broken. I'm assuming you're talking this winter. Coldest since last winter doesn't count by the way.

I don't think there's any doubt that this winter was a mild one. People would argue that there have been a reasonable (not brilliant of course) number of snow events. However, snow and cold are two different things as we all know; a winter can be a lot colder from generally very low temperatures and no snow than one with average temperatures and a few big snow events. I think the only thing that went wrong is natural variability and global warming. I'm a bit unsure about global warming, and don't know quite where I stand when it comes to this opinion yet. We can hope that winter 2008-09 will be a cold one, but I'm quite disappointed because I'm moving to Glasgow in September. 'Bye-bye my Highland winters! x'

I think that depends what your yardstick is. I reckon there have been three very brief snow events this winter away from Scotland - though my memory might be deceiving me. If three brief events is "reasonable" then I suggest we've got a seriously skewed scale which is desperately looking for good news because there isn't a long way down from three, assuming we don't start striking credit against future years.

[stewfox]

Another winter of my life has just passed by with not a single occurrence of a spell of northerly or easterly weather or Greeny / Scandy Highs and by and large awful mild zonality most of the time that is not cold zonal like Jan 1984 / 1978 / Mar 1995 / Dec 1993 etc, just another winter like most of the very unexciting mild winters in the last 20 years.

Most years I pop over to the USA and do some late ski-ing traveling with some sun bathing.

You should try, pop to Las Vegas drive to Utah or wherever and ski make snow balls Temp cira 25f get your fix of snow get caught in a blizzrd etc..Then head south and sun bath in southern Arizona the next day temp 80/85f

I think England would be help by having a few 5,000/7,500 ft mountains, im not asking for the Andes or a area 100 sq miles say north of Bicester at say 3,000/4,000 ft

We get so many 'rain events' in the 3-7c range a bit of height would make all the difference

Ps December we had a lot of frosts and snow in November that settled in Bicester

I assume people on here talking about a frostless January are talking about air frost and not ground frosts? I live in the south yet I had several ground frosts in January and at least one air frost.

Is there any data re air frosts /ground frosts we have had this winter against the norm (for say central England)

We had a sack load of scrap the ice of the car frost in December , higher then any December since 1982 or 2001 ???

Edited March 3, 2008 by stewfox

[osmposm]

I assume people on here talking about a frostless January are talking about air frost and not ground frosts? I live in the south yet I had several ground frosts in January and at least one air frost.

Yes, DR, air frosts (as I hope I said).

Roused to check my assertion by your knowledge of one air frost, I will slightly change what I said from "most of the south" being (air) frost-free to "many places in the south".

I've now looked at a host of stations, official and unofficial, and have found (in a far from complete search) 17 places that did not drop below zero during Jan: they were in Beds, Bucks, Essex, Cambs, (outer) Greater London, East Sussex, South Wales, Bristol, Somerset, Dorset, IOW, Devon and Cornwall. Another 15 that just dipped below freezing, but did not get as low as -1C, were in the counties of Surrey, Berks, Hants, Northants, W Mids and Worcs (as well as some much further north, probably coastal).

The closest three stations I could find to you were in Winslow, Bucks (@392 ft asl), which just touched (exactly) zero on 22 Jan; Far Bletchley (just south of Milton Keynes @544 ft)) which did not drop below +0.5C, and Bicester Airfield, Oxon(@230 ft) which had 2 slight frosts of -0.2 & -1.0C

Edited March 3, 2008 by osmposm

[stewfox]

Yes, DR, air frosts (as I hope I said).

Roused to check my assertion by your knowledge of one air frost, I will slightly change what I said from "most of the south" being (air) frost-free to "many places in the south".

I've now looked at a host of stations, official and unofficial, and have found (in a far from complete search) 17 places that did not drop below zero during Jan: they were in Beds, Bucks, Essex, Cambs, (outer) Greater London, East Sussex, South Wales, Bristol, Somerset, Dorset, IOW, Devon and Cornwall. Another 15 that just dipped below freezing, but did not get as low as -1C, were in the counties of Surrey, Berks, Hants, Northants, W Mids and Worcs (as well as some much further north, probably coastal).

The closest three stations I could find to you were in Winslow, Bucks (@392 ft asl), which just touched (exactly) zero on 22 Jan; Far Bletchley (just south of Milton Keynes @544 ft)) which did not drop below +0.5C, and Bicester Airfield, Oxon(@230 ft) which had 2 slight frosts of -0.2 & -1.0C

Now look at December, im sure that was above average for air frosts ?? Bicester had loads of frosts

You can be selected with Stats at any time

Its the complete lack of a real snow event that has marked this winter out ? (say within 100 miles of Milton Keynes)

Yes its been mild but not acceptionally so

We kind of have 'in my days' type selective memory

Edited March 3, 2008 by stewfox

[osmposm]

Um, Stew, I'm not being selective: you only need to scroll up the page to find my previous post in which I talked about the frosts of December.

Yes, there were plenty of them in most places - and I'd guess well above the recent average for Dec - but they were caused by clear, dry air and long, still nights leading to surface cold - not by any body of 'deep' cold air over the country, which is a necessity for the chance of snow. In January there was again no properly cold air over the south, so no snow, and little still, clear air either - hence very little frost. February had a brief taste of the right stuff, but short-lived and not cold enough.

In those terms I would describe it as an exceptionally mild winter for southerners by the standards of the last half-century. If that's having an "in my day" selective memory...well, so be it. But I'm afraid it's true!

Edited March 3, 2008 by osmposm

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, if it's been a mild winter- even if not exceptionally so- then it was hardly a "normal" winter. The idea that normal means above average is a direct consequence of the current era of warmth. As far as amounts of cold and snow go, the closest we've been to a "normal" winter, compared with a decently long-term average like 1971-2000 or 1961-90, was in 2000/01 and 2005/06.

2003/04 over much of eastern Britain also had snow amounts that were close to the long-term average even though it was a mild winter.

2007/08 has been far below "normal" for snow except for parts of Northern Ireland and the Scottish Lowlands, and also the Scottish Highlands which had some good snow in January from strongly zonal conditions and near-average temperatures.