Winter 2007-08 - What went wrong. Why was it mild?

[The Eagle]

Whilst the Winter was not up to scratch snow wise I dont think you could say it was 'very mild' because it was not. I think the lack of snow over England and Wales, where many have not seen one single snowflake, might be distorting the conclusions for this winter. For Scotland and Ireland it was not great either however there were one or two notable snow events. Indeed today was pretty good aswell. Not quite the 10 inches of snow some of us got at the beginning of January but satisfactory. Obviously if you live in England and Wales you will think its been the worst winter ever probrably but I think it was poor but not the worst.

Hoping for better next Winter! :huh:

[reef]

Whilst the Winter was not up to scratch snow wise I dont think you could say it was 'very mild' because it was not.

It was the joint 25th warmest winter in 349 years, so in the top 7% of winters. It was also the 5th warmest in the last 50 years. Id certainly call it very mild.

Some people really have lost touch with what is 'average' in this country. In some places the winter was snow free, contained no frosts in January, couldnt muster a single ice-day and was only saved from being exceptionally mild by displaced mid-latitude highs - themselves a symptom of the northerly tracking jet stream problem. Lets get real here, no matter what year you compare it to, it was absolutely abysmal.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, if it's been a mild winter- even if not exceptionally so- then it was hardly a "normal" winter. The idea that normal means above average is a direct consequence of the current era of warmth. As far as amounts of cold and snow go, the closest we've been to a "normal" winter, compared with a decently long-term average like 1971-2000 or 1961-90, was in 2000/01 and 2005/06.

2003/04 over much of eastern Britain also had snow amounts that were close to the long-term average even though it was a mild winter.

2007/08 has been far below "normal" for snow except for parts of Northern Ireland and the Scottish Lowlands, and also the Scottish Highlands which had some good snow in January from strongly zonal conditions and near-average temperatures.

2003-04 may have been a milder than average winter but it actually had snowfall close to average for many areas, and it was snowier than some winters with a lower overall CET, and all the cold spells that winter came from northerlies also with Greenland Highs. The same is true for 2004-05, although that winter was largely mild the cold spells did come from proper cold synoptics, like the short northerlies in December and the more prolonged easterly in the second half of February. Whereas this winter all the cold spells have come from mid-latitude Rex blocks which allow inversions and cold conditions to develop at the surface, like was the case in 1991-92 and Dec 1992; deep cold Arctic air has been in very short supply this winter. Basically the 2007-08 winter has been a milder version of the 1991-92 winter, virtually snowless for most areas with a persistent strong jet to the north and at times surface cold from mid-latitude Highs. The only difference between 07-08 and 91-92 was that the Rex blocks were less persistent this winter.

Although we have not had a proper cold winter since 1995-96, we did actually get a below average mid-Dec to mid-March period in 2000-01 and again in 2005-06, although neither of these winters were particularly cold. I have mentioned a number of times it is now getting to the stage where a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the "christmas pudding", and the modern version of 1995-96 or 1985, 1986 or 1987, and getting anything like 1995-96 or even anything better than 2000-01 or 2005-06 may be the equivalent of a one off extreme like 1947/63/79 in the christmas pudding.

Edited March 3, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[Eugene]

January messed the winter up, February and December weren't bad, i've enjoyed this winter showing that even mild winters can have some cold spells, nothing that severe apart from severe night frosts mid feb but thats what most like about this country the moderate climate. not too cold or too hot.

Nothing went wrong there is no set out plan how a winter will evolve before it starts, nature will take its course and there is nothing we can do about it.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Whilst the Winter was not up to scratch snow wise I dont think you could say it was 'very mild' because it was not. I think the lack of snow over England and Wales, where many have not seen one single snowflake, might be distorting the conclusions for this winter. For Scotland and Ireland it was not great either however there were one or two notable snow events. Indeed today was pretty good aswell. Not quite the 10 inches of snow some of us got at the beginning of January but satisfactory. Obviously if you live in England and Wales you will think its been the worst winter ever probrably but I think it was poor but not the worst.

Hoping for better next Winter! :huh:

I certainly cannot think that you could possibly get a winter with less snow than 1991-92, 1988-89 and 1989-90. 1999-2000 was also very poor for snow for almost all areas of the UK, and 2001-02 was largely snowless for most people too. 2002-03 was also very poor for most areas except the SE. Basically the trend towards much more snow free winters began in 1988, and apart from the Midlands December snowstorm in Dec 1990 and the severe snowy spell in Feb 1991, most winters in the late 80s and early 90s period had hardly any snow. There was then a blip around the mid 1990s when many areas saw average snowfall in 1993-94 with quite a snowy Feb, 94-95 saw major snowfalls in Yorkshire late Jan and for a number of areas in March, the 1995-96 winter was generally snowy for many areas. Since 1997 winters have been generally snowless again, with the late 90s seeing little snowfall, and 2000-01 produced some good snow for the north, and 2003-04, 04-05 and 05-06 saw more snow than a number of recent years although not great amounts.

January messed the winter up, February and December weren't bad, i've enjoyed this winter showing that even mild winters can have some cold spells, nothing that severe apart from severe night frosts mid feb but thats what most like about this country the moderate climate. not too cold or too hot.

Nothing went wrong there is no set out plan how a winter will evolve before it starts, nature will take its course and there is nothing we can do about it.

This winter has certainly been a mild one, although less mild than last year but very unexciting to say the least synoptically, and certainly still one of the poorer winters of recent years. Hardly any snow, no northerly or easterly outbreaks, no spells of high latitude blocking. Certainly a 2003-04 type winter or a 2004-05 type would be better and more exciting than this year if we have to have a milder than average winter.

Edited March 3, 2008 by North-Easterly Blast

[Roger J Smith]

I have this picture of a colony of weather refugees somewhere in Canada, possibly to the north of Toronto in the snow belt area, where you could all emigrate and practice your religion in freedom in the new world.

It seems that the old world has rejected your beliefs and you face persecution there in the land without winter.

Lots of juicy summer thunderstorms too, you could just make sentimental visits back to the UK like I do, once every ten or twenty years.

I was thinking of my British weather friends today, overhearing some people talking in this little town we are visiting in central BC, it was snowing (again) and somebody was saying, "boy, this winter just doesn't know when to end, does it?"

Different paradigm altogether there.

[snowray]

I have this picture of a colony of weather refugees somewhere in Canada, possibly to the north of Toronto in the snow belt area, where you could all emigrate and practice your religion in freedom in the new world.

It seems that the old world has rejected your beliefs and you face persecution there in the land without winter.

Lots of juicy summer thunderstorms too, you could just make sentimental visits back to the UK like I do, once every ten or twenty years.

I was thinking of my British weather friends today, overhearing some people talking in this little town we are visiting in central BC, it was snowing (again) and somebody was saying, "boy, this winter just doesn't know when to end, does it?"

Different paradigm altogether there.

Quite so Roger, you know I have been seriously thinking of moving to Canada, have relatives over there as it goes. I take it you are pleased that you made the move and there are no regrets...Certainly around London it has changed so much recently that its unrecognisable compated to just 5-10 years ago, let alone 20, and not for the better I may add!

Edited March 4, 2008 by snowray

[Roger J Smith]

Well. I was yanked out at the age of seven so not exactly my idea, however, you play the hand you are dealt, so to speak.

As it happens I have probably seen more snow in one lifetime than the rest of NW put together. <_<

[WhiteFox]

I beg to differ, mmr. As Reef mentioned in passing, January was entirely air frost-free in much of the South, something that is very rare: I know of only one other example since (at least) the 1950s, and that was 1990. In the south-east at least, the greater number of frosts than last year was mainly down to the persistent high pressure area that sat just to our east in the middle of December: the air associated with it was not really cold, but the air was clear (and the nights long).

I keep seeing this, but is it relevant? I'm pretty sure that even during runs of colder winters there were plenty of frosty nights caused by high pressure and clear skies at night. It's all you need (usually) for frosts in Northern Climes during the winter months with long nights. There's nothing in the wonter rulebook that says cold, frosty nights have to be the result of deep cold air... They all count towards lower average temperatures.

[Stratos Ferric]

It was the joint 25th warmest winter in 349 years, so in the top 7% of winters. It was also the 5th warmest in the last 50 years. Id certainly call it very mild.

Some people really have lost touch with what is 'average' in this country. In some places the winter was snow free, contained no frosts in January, couldnt muster a single ice-day and was only saved from being exceptionally mild by displaced mid-latitude highs - themselves a symptom of the northerly tracking jet stream problem. Lets get real here, no matter what year you compare it to, it was absolutely abysmal.

I suspect many of our contributors are long on hope and short on experience, and should be forgiven the fact that they have no real experience of even a half-way decent winter. The last winter I recall reasonably frequent wintry weather was 95/6, and even then I fancy a lot of it was because I was high in the Pennines much of the time. Accepting that year, it has to be remembered that that was the most wintry for eight or nine years. On that basis, anyone born later than around 1983, say, really has no benchmark by which to gauge on the same basis that those of us of more mature vintage can.

I agree, in terms of wintry weather, this winter, whilst not totally bereft, gave but the merest of "pops" when the bottle was uncorked.

I keep seeing this, but is it relevant? I'm pretty sure that even during runs of colder winters there were plenty of frosty nights caused by high pressure and clear skies at night. It's all you need (usually) for frosts in Northern Climes during the winter months with long nights. There's nothing in the wonter rulebook that says cold, frosty nights have to be the result of deep cold air... They all count towards lower average temperatures.

It's highly relevant I think. Your first line misses a subtley that used to be a truism but, here in the UK, no longer so. When I was a kid all that was needed for frost was a clear night. I know on occasions this winter I have remarked on here that even with a clear, and fairly still, night we STILL haven't registered a frost. It's increasingly the case in the UK that in order to get wintry weather we need to have much fuller set of supporting factors than used to be the case. Marginal is no longer anything like good enough, nowhere near. Nowadays the weather dice need to be very well loaded before we get cold weather, and that is why - particularly in winter - cold months are becoming rare.

Um, Stew, I'm not being selective: you only need to scroll up the page to find my previous post in which I talked about the frosts of December.

Yes, there were plenty of them in most places - and I'd guess well above the recent average for Dec - but they were caused by clear, dry air and long, still nights leading to surface cold - not by any body of 'deep' cold air over the country, which is a necessity for the chance of snow. In January there was again no properly cold air over the south, so no snow, and little still, clear air either - hence very little frost. February had a brief taste of the right stuff, but short-lived and not cold enough.

In those terms I would describe it as an exceptionally mild winter for southerners by the standards of the last half-century. If that's having an "in my day" selective memory...well, so be it. But I'm afraid it's true!

Quite agree. Most of what modification we have seen this winter came from a couple of HP events that produced only surface cold. We have been as far away from a genuinely intense snow event this winter as we have in pretty much any winter in the christmas pudding.

[The Eagle]

Large parts of previous posts have nothing to do with the models. Maybe it would be better to keep the environmental guff out of the 'Model Discussion thread' because we all know where the thread will end up inevitably. There are dedicated threads to push agendas is there not?

Lets get real here, no matter what year you compare it to, it was absolutely abysmal.

For you probrably but certainly not for all. There is more then a sense here of 'the winter was crap in England so lets all moan about it and disregard the places that actually did much much better'........There are positives to take from this Winter and remember it is always hit and miss. You were just out of luck this time around. People read far to much into things IMO. <_<

...forgot this is OT too.

Edited March 5, 2008 by Darkman

[Northernlights]

Can"t say I agree with this threads title as I feel we have had a pretty average winter up here albeit without any substantial snowfall at low level say below 300m.(probably get a six inch fall next week after writing this) Frosts started in mid November and although mostly slight apart from Decembers inversion spell (-8c min) I don"t think a week has gone by without at least a ground frost right up to last night when it was -2c. Last winter was almost frost free. The countryside bears witness to this round here as the grass is mostly brown/yellow with little fresh growth unlike the last 10 or 15 winters when the wintering sheep had fresh grass to graze all winter.Check some of the trafficsctland webcams and you will see what I mean by brown/yellow instead of green grass.Even the bulbs I feel are more on time than in recent years as many daffodils are only just breaking the soil surface and we have none in flower yet. The hills to the west and north over 300m were spectacular yesterday with a solid cover of snow, "a blue sky 18" powder day" according to the skiers and a max temp of 3c here making it feel very wintry. We could still have some wintry spells here until the middle of April as springs in the past have often been late as sea temperatures are now at their lowest and north and east winds usually more frequent in spring .

[Upgrade]

It was the joint 25th warmest winter in 349 years, so in the top 7% of winters. It was also the 5th warmest in the last 50 years. Id certainly call it very mild.

Some people really have lost touch with what is 'average' in this country. In some places the winter was snow free, contained no frosts in January, couldnt muster a single ice-day and was only saved from being exceptionally mild by displaced mid-latitude highs - themselves a symptom of the northerly tracking jet stream problem. Lets get real here, no matter what year you compare it to, it was absolutely abysmal.

this is so true, particularly in the south, in no way could it be described as a normal winter. it has been mild most of the time with temps of 9-11 degrees pretty much the whole winter. we have had a few frosts, more than last year, but also some really really mild days, even milder than last winter.

little wonder the horsechestnuts, willows, and may blossom are coming out and its the first week in march.

we have also had not one single day with snowfall. there wasnt a single day of frost during January.

I know on occasions this winter I have remarked on here that even with a clear, and fairly still, night we STILL haven't registered a frost.

we have had that here too, very unusual in mid winter - another symptom of our mild winter.

Edited March 5, 2008 by jimmyay

[osmposm]

Large parts of previous posts have nothing to do with the models. Maybe it would be better to keep the environmental guff out of the 'Model Discussion thread' because we all know where the thread will end up inevitably. There are dedicated threads to push agendas is there not?

Um......actually, this isn't the Model Discussion Thread, DM - I think you've got yourself turned around somehow!!! And being as it is instead a thread about why this winter was so mild, and since some people disagree that it was mild at all, inevitably those of us who believe it was have something to say about that - and indeed to bring in aspects of the change in our climate as part and parcel of what we see as the reason. Which makes it not an 'agenda', but an entirely relevant and on-topic subject for discussion, I hope you'd agree?

But I'm glad you had a satisfactorily wintry winter over there, by recent standards at least. I only wish I could say the same.

Ossie

[osmposm]

little wonder the horsechestnuts, willows, and may blossom are coming out and its the first week in march.

Jimmy, although I agree about the mildness down here, I'm afraid I can't believe that the may/hawthorn is flowering anywhere yet, even in London. Are you sure, mate? And I presume you mean that the horsechestnuts leaf buds are bursting, not that they're starting to flower?

[Coast]

this is so true, particularly in the south, in no way could it be described as a normal winter.

I looked in the wardrobe last weekend at a nice selection of thick winter coats and realised I haven't worn any of them for three years! I also concluded that apart from a couple of days of wearing sweat shirts, jumpers or similar, I have got away with another winter in shirts or tee-shirts. I know I'm well covered but........

Edited March 6, 2008 by Coast

[stewfox]

I suspect many of our contributors are long on hope and short on experience, and should be forgiven the fact that they have no real experience of even a half-way decent winter. The last winter I recall reasonably frequent wintry weather was 95/6, and even then I fancy a lot of it was because I was high in the Pennines much of the time. Accepting that year, it has to be remembered that that was the most wintry for eight or nine years. On that basis, anyone born later than around 1983, say, really has no benchmark by which to gauge on the same basis that those of us of more mature vintage can.

I agree, in terms of wintry weather, this winter, whilst not totally bereft, gave but the merest of "pops" when the bottle was uncorked.

It's highly relevant I think. Your first line misses a subtley that used to be a truism but, here in the UK, no longer so. When I was a kid all that was needed for frost was a clear night. I know on occasions this winter I have remarked on here that even with a clear, and fairly still, night we STILL haven't registered a frost. It's increasingly the case in the UK that in order to get wintry weather we need to have much fuller set of supporting factors than used to be the case. Marginal is no longer anything like good enough, nowhere near. Nowadays the weather dice need to be very well loaded before we get cold weather, and that is why - particularly in winter - cold months are becoming rare.

CET for December 2007 was 4.8 . How some people write would suggest it was one of the mildest ever !

Since 1970 we have had 16 colder CETs and 20 warmer CETS for Dec warmer ones include 71,72,74,77,80,83,84,88,89, etc

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ewtemp.txt

I can remember Jan 79 even Dec 79 with Blizzards or Feb 86 or Jan 87 as being 'normal ' winters they were not.

We havent had a 'decent cold spell' this winter and yes there a lack of snow in parts but lets keep things in prespective.

I looked in the wardrobe last weekend at a nice selection of thick winter coats and realised I haven't worn any of them for three years! I also concluded that apart from a couple of days of wearing sweat shirts, jumpers or similar, I have got away with another winter in shirts or tee-shirts. I know I'm well covered but........

I wore 6 jumpers as a student at Poly in the winter of Jan 87 ! We lit the candles only when it dipped below -8c

I wear less now as i can afford more heating

[Iceni]

Jimmy, although I agree about the mildness down here, I'm afraid I can't believe that the may/hawthorn is flowering anywhere yet, even in London. Are you sure, mate? And I presume you mean that the horsechestnuts leaf buds are bursting, not that they're starting to flower?

I think he may mean blackthorn, this has been in blossom for the past few weeks around our way — still a couple of weeks early for it but it commonly gets confused for hawthorn.

[Thundery wintry showers]

CET for December 2007 was 4.8 . How some people write would suggest it was one of the mildest ever !

Since 1970 we have had 16 colder CETs and 20 warmer CETS for Dec warmer ones include 71,72,74,77,80,83,84,88,89, etc

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ewtemp.txt

I can remember Jan 79 even Dec 79 with Blizzards or Feb 86 or Jan 87 as being 'normal ' winters they were not.

We havent had a 'decent cold spell' this winter and yes there a lack of snow in parts but lets keep things in prespective.

I wore 6 jumpers as a student at Poly in the winter of Jan 87 ! We lit the candles only when it dipped below -8c

I wear less now as i can afford more heating B)

I sense some cherry-picking and misrepresentation. Nobody said that December 2007 was one of the warmest on record, the argument has always been that winter 2007/08 (Dec, Jan, Feb) was somewhat on the mild side overall, relative to the long-term mean.

Similarly, because December 2007 was only average, doesn't mean that winter 2007/08 was only average, because you have to add January and February in there as well. Temperatures for the winter quarter probably did come out close to average in parts of Scotland, but were much above over England & Wales.

Also, exaggeration of the argument for warming. Nobody has said that Jan/Feb 79, Feb 86, Jan 87 were 'normal', but what is being said, with plenty of justification, is that cold snowy spells tend, on average, to be much fewer, further between, shorter lived and less potent than they used to be.

[Stratos Ferric]

I sense some cherry-picking and misrepresentation. Nobody said that December 2007 was one of the warmest on record, the argument has always been that winter 2007/08 (Dec, Jan, Feb) was somewhat on the mild side overall, relative to the long-term mean.

Similarly, because December 2007 was only average, doesn't mean that winter 2007/08 was only average, because you have to add January and February in there as well. Temperatures for the winter quarter probably did come out close to average in parts of Scotland, but were much above over England & Wales.

Also, exaggeration of the argument for warming. Nobody has said that Jan/Feb 79, Feb 86, Jan 87 were 'normal', but what is being said, with plenty of justification, is that cold snowy spells tend, on average, to be much fewer, further between, shorter lived and less potent than they used to be.

TWS, we will make a jedi warrior out of you yet!

[stewfox]

I sense some cherry-picking and misrepresentation. Nobody said that December 2007 was one of the warmest on record, the argument has always been that winter 2007/08 (Dec, Jan, Feb) was somewhat on the mild side overall, relative to the long-term mean.

Also, exaggeration of the argument for warming. Nobody has said that Jan/Feb 79, Feb 86, Jan 87 were 'normal', but what is being said, with plenty of justification, is that cold snowy spells tend, on average, to be much fewer, further between, shorter lived and less potent than they used to be.

Yes on the 'mild side' no more no less

Lack of a cold snap

Lack of snow (not unusual)

Not quite sure in which direction you think it's wrong - I suspect from a previous post that you think (like some others) that this was a "normal" winter for the UK, not a mild one. Others have even suggested it was colder than some recent ones.

So, one statistic that I will give yet again. Since 1955, the statistically coldest (or equal coldest) month of the year, January, had no air frost at all for only the second time in at least 54 years - the other year was 1990 - in most of the south of the country. I'm not sure where you live (could you perhaps put it on your avatar for us?), but that is a significant fact. And the vast majority of the air frosts in the south this winter came not from deep cold air over the country, but from a settled anticyclone with clear skies in mid-December when the nights were at their longest.

However you cut it, in the south at least this has been an exceptionally mild winter.

Can we have the link to the stuff you underline ,thanks to support this ‘exceptionally mild winter’ you had. Note one month doesnt make a winter

Edited March 6, 2008 by stewfox

[Timmytour]

I remember being in my teens during the Seventies when there were some winters of major disappointment, yet even during these the lake in the local park would freeze over enough on one or two occasions to allow people onto the ice with a few games of impromptu ice hockey going on.

I was talking to someone the other day who has lived near the park for the past 15 years and can never remember seeing the lake frozen with people on it. Maybe that's an indication of the culture of health and safety as well, but certainly that lake doesn't freeze as often and as hard as it once did.

Edited March 7, 2008 by Timmytour

[summer blizzard]

To be honest, i think this winter showed that hindsight is a wonderful thing, because having reveiwed the QBO and MEI data for the winter, i would have called for all three months to have above average warmth, but for December and January to feature below average rainfall, and February above average rainfall.

Nevertheless, i still would have been wrong, December was cold, not warm, though it was a dry month, January was warm and wet, not dry, and February was warm and dry, not wet, so on that basis, i would have had only a 50% success rate with that forecast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data