Tropical Cyclone Jokwe

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 22S has formed in the South Indian Ocean, near the northeast of Madagascar. Stengthening will be slow to begin with due to moderate easterly shear. Landfall in Northern Madagascar is predicted by the JTWC in 24 hours time, where it will cause more problems with further flooding rather than wind. Thankfully, 22S should be clear of Madagascar by 36hrs, where it could strengthen more rapidly in the Mozambique Channel due to high sea temps and lower shear. A low-level ridge to the south of the cyclone will be the dominating steering influence for the next few days and 22S will move westwards in response to this, making landfall in Northern Madagascar pretty much certain. A turn more west-southwestward is possible once 22S gets into the Mozambique Channel as the cyclone starts to round the periphery of the ridge.

Satellite image of 22S (to the left, northeast of Madagascar):

Taken from CIMSS

[Mesosphere]

Clearly visible on the Meteosat Image taken this morning

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, it stands out pretty well. Thanks for the image Calum.

22S has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Jokwe. Jokwe has intensified significantly since when it formed early this morning, it is now at 50kts. This is bad news of Northern Madagascar as a coastal crossing is still anticipated ;ater today or early tommorrow. Banding stretching to the south of Jokwe will also bring heavy rains to more central parts. After Ivan, Madagascar really could be doing with some dry weather not tropical rains which is what Jokwe is already providing.

Because Jokwe has intensified so much intensity estimates have significantly risen too. Intensification will continue through 24hrs but should be slow due to land interaction, but after which the JTWC notes there is a possibility of further rapid intensification over the northern Mozambique Channel which has quite hot waters at the moment. Shear is expected to be lower in the region too, and the JTWC have Jokwe at 85kts (cat 2 on SS scale) by 48hrs. Could end up being a dangerous storm this one.

[Mesosphere]

Latest Image from Meteosat , taken at midday (not updated because it's pitch black on that side of the globe right now)

[kold weather]

Well Jokwe look pretty decent right now, good outflow on the north eastern side and an evident inflow as well which is causing some powerful convection over northern parts of Madagascar presently, which as SS has already said don't really need the rain. Deep convection is present in the Central dense overcast of the tropical cyclone and it has an overall good structure which to be honest doesn't really strike me as looking that sheared however I've not looked enough loops yet at the water vapor to be able to confirm that.

Anyway looks like on its current track Jokwe will just clip the northern tip of the island and then emerge into the Mozambique Channel. Heat content is high there and therefore there is always going to be a chance that it could develop very rapidly over those waters if the shear keeps low, no certainty about that though as I said before.

Development should slow down for the next 12hrs as the system crosses over land breifly but I should think that this won't really do anything to disrupt the core of the developing cyclone so it could well begin to strenghen fairly soon after it crosses land. Strong could it become will be dependant on several factors but its going to have enough time to reach 90-100kts before a second landfall and the heat content in the region can easily support higher but I'll hold off callig for anything stronger now given the uncertainty of shear in the next 12hrs and the exact track Jokwe takes.

[Cookie]

no jokes please

Storm Alert issued at 5 Mar, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOKWE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Comoros

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Mayotte

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Mozambique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Ambilobe (13.0 S, 49.1 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Hell-Ville (13.3 S, 48.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Moroni (11.7 S, 43.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Memba (14.2 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Mocambique (15.0 S, 40.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pemba (13.0 S, 40.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Mogincual (15.6 S, 40.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the analysis KW, certainly going to be interesting to watch. Sadly, Mozambique look like being in danger for the second landfall, which may occur in a few days time if Jokwe keeps it's general westward to west-southwestward motion going. But firstly Madagascar will have to deal with the rains which really isn't good, hopefully the many homeless people will be able to cope.

Thanks for the alert Cookie. Certainly shows that Jokwe could be very dangerous in the coming days if forecasts verify.

no jokes please

I typed Joke several times when trying to type "Jokwe"

[mettalfabrik]

latest info on jokwe

WTIO22 FMEE 051822

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2008

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 005/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 990 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 50.0E

(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES

EAST)

AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING

UP

TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND BETWEEN 270 NM AND 450 NM

FROM

THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH IN SOME THUNDERSTRORMY ULTRA-PERIFERIC BANDS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM

THE

CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 50 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM FROM THE

CENTER,

EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2008/03/06 AT 06 UTC:

12.5S / 47.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

24H, VALID 2008/03/06 AT 18 UTC:

13.3S / 45.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH A POOR EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS.

IT SHOULD TRACK OVER THE DIEGO SUAREZ BAY LATER TONIGHT, THEN GO BACK

RAPIDLY OVER SEAS, WHERE IT SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING AS IT SOULD

TRACK

SOUTH OF COMOROS ISLANDS.

STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM

DUE

TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND TO

ITS

RAPID MOTION.=

[NL]

Satellite imagery 1830z

[Cookie]

nice images

[Somerset Squall]

Jokwe has made the coastal crossing and is now pushing out into the Mozambique Channel. As KW predicted, the core hasn't been disrupted much and Jokwe is still at 50kts. JTWC and Meteofrance both differ in what they expect to happen with Jokwe. JTWC are predicting landfall in Mozambique just after 48hrs and Meteofrance are expecting a more southerly turn before it reaches land again and has it strengthening as it pushes southwards down the channel. Both agencies are predicitng intensification although JTWC seem to have backed off the rapid strengthening predicted earlier and have Jokwe peaking at 75kts. This could be a little low as conditions look as if they are going to be very favourable for development with warm waters and an anticyclone nearby which could increase the outflow. However, JTWC have mentioned that the shear will remain moderate which perhaps is why they have backed off on intensity for now. We'll have to wait and see.

Great images there NL, shows clearly Jokwe and Madagascar and also a decaying Ophelia to the bottom right.

EDIT: Another image of Jokwe from NAVY/NRL, shows an eye is becoming visable, expect that 50kts to be replaced with something higher by the next advisory at 3pm.

Edited March 6, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

The latest image you put up SS clearly shows it has intensified since 0630z

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, your image shows it wasn't looking half as good as it does now, I think JTWC may be undercooking this one as their latest forecast didn't think Jokwe would become a cat 1 (65kts) for another 24-36hrs, but based on that image it may be there now.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

Tropical Storm JOKWE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Comoros

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Mayotte

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Mozambique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Ambilobe (13.0 S, 49.1 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Hell-Ville (13.3 S, 48.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Moroni (11.7 S, 43.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Pemba (13.0 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Memba (14.2 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Ibo (12.4 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Mocambique (15.0 S, 40.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Mogincual (15.6 S, 40.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Jokwe has intensified to 75kts. As the tracking chart that Cookie posted shows, Jokwe looks like it may not make a direct landfall and instead hug the coast as it tracks more to the southwest. JTWC has Jokwe peaking at 95kts now, in response to the recent rapid strengthening, and it has potential to be a little stronger than that. Not looking good for Mozambique. By 48hrs, Jokwe could weaken a little due to land interaction but the eye is expected to remain off shore. Of course, the track can and probably will change so Jokwe needs to be closely watched. It's worth noting that Meteofrance are forecasting a more southerly motion after a brief interaction with the coast which may allow Jokwe to strengthen again.

[Cookie]

Tropical Cyclone JOKWE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mozambique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Mogincual (15.6 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Angoche (16.2 S, 40.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Moma (17.0 S, 39.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for TS is 90% currently

Mayotte

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Hell-Ville (13.3 S, 48.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Mocambique (15.0 S, 40.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Pebane (17.2 S, 38.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Comoros

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Memba (14.2 S, 40.5 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 7 Mar, 2008 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone JOKWE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mozambique

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Mogincual (15.6 S, 40.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Angoche (16.2 S, 40.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Mocambique (15.0 S, 40.7 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Moma (17.0 S, 39.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mayotte

probability for TS is 35% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pebane (17.2 S, 38.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Looks like Jokwe is going to make landfall soon, good job it doesn't have that much longer over water because a small pinhole eye has formed and with such a small core I think Jokwe is probably under going rapid intensification right now. It still has 12hrs over sea however and this is enough time I suspect for the system to add a good 25-30kts onto its current strength if it continues to show the same organisational qualities it has presently. certainly going to be quite a powerful cyclone when it makes landfall even if it doesn't strengthen any more, 1 min sustained winds are estimated at 85kts and those are still pretty dangerous winds...it won't be no joke...ok I'll leave now...

Edited March 7, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, certainly looks serious and as you say thank goodness it doesn't have much more time to strengthen. Looks like Jokwe will emerge back over water in about 36hrs as a more southerly motion is predicted after landfall in Mozambique, who knows where it will go beyond then. That's if it survives of course but there is a good chance it will.

[Somerset Squall]

Jokwe is really going for it now, Meteofrance have upgraded it to an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" and pressure has fallen rapidly to 945mb. 10 min sustained wind speeds are now 95kts, I expect it'll probably be around 100-105kts 1 min sustained. I would be surprised if JTWC doesn't issue 6 hourly updates now reflecting this. Jokwe is hours away from landfall now so it shouldn't get much stronger.

[Somerset Squall]

NRL/NAVY image:

[Cookie]

cool image

[kold weather]

Well sadly I'm not surprised its rapidly strengthened given it has the dreaded pinhole eye, reminds me somewhat of Charley in terms of structure, given it has that pinhole eye I strongly suspect SS that by the time it makes landfall Jokwe could be upto 110-115kts---and even that may be a little on the low side. Tiny core with this system with a small neat CDO as well, eye is still pinhole and eyewall is showing some intense convection with very high heat content. It truely is a good job this didn't have 12hrs more over water otherwise we'd be talking high end cat-4/5!

So we are looking at wind gusts probably between 115-125kts come landfall, I don't think surge will be too extreme due to small size however given the area its hitting rainfall could be another problem esp given the deep convection present in the eyewall thanks to the very high heat content underneath it. Hopefully the eyewall hits asn unpopulated area, the good news is that with it having a small core the area of highest winds are small and therefore a reduced risk of a sizeable population being hit but sadly it all depends on the exact motion it takes in the next 2hrs before it makes landfall.

Thr southern Indian season is certainly proving a good warm-up though for the atlantic season, my call of 25-30kts on top of the 85kts it had at 2pm looking pretty decent right now.

Edited March 8, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

I hope it dose aswell

[Somerset Squall]

The JTWC now have Jokwe at 100kts, a cat 3 on the SS scale. It is now making landfall and should weaken over land. However, it is expected to curve southward beyond 24hrs and re-emerge over water. Whilst sea temps and outflow remain good if this scenario were to occur, shear is expected to be high therefore significant re-strengthening is not forecast. It is still possible that Jokwe won't interact enough with the trough to the southwest meaning a polward turn may not occur and Jokwe would dissipate over inland Mozambique. However, this option is considered less likely by the JTWC and Meteofrance.

I too, hope the effects are as minimal as possible with this one. The only thing good about this cyclone is it's size, as KW says.