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Tropical Cyclone Jokwe

Somerset Squall
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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Author
Posted (edited)
Quite amazing the strength and longivity of the storms this season.

Looks like Jokwe is slowly decaying now with the re-established 'eye'

disappearing.

Agreed with both of those statements. Thanks for the images NL.

JTWC have raised Jokwe's intensity to 70kts, noting it could have been a little stronger than that overnight and that now it is back on a weakening trend. Forecast track is still highly uncertain as Jokwe remains trapped in a weak steering environment but JTWC now think a more east-northeastward motion may become established and MeteoFrance are now indicating and North-northeastward motion to kick in. Basically it's still a case of wait and see, because the forecasts chop and change with every advisory issued.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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NL Aficionado

NL

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
Posted

Latest satellite images from 1200z show its winding back up again, 'eye' seems to

be re-emerging SW Madagascar could be in for a rough ride.

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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Author
Posted

Latest forecast track from MeteoFrance:

ZOOM_Derniere_12.png

Demonstrates pretty well the uncertainty that lies ahead.

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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Author
Posted

JTWC have issued their final warning for Jokwe, reducing intensity to 35kts. The system is still trapped in a very weak steering environment between a subtropical ridge to the west and another to the southeast which are both competing for steering influnce. As a result, Jokwe has barely moved over the past 48 hours, and I suspect upwelling (the cyclone as used the same area of water for so long that it has mixed colder water to the surface) has cooled the waters beneath Jokwe, which has greatly weakened the storm. Another factor contributing to the weakening is moderate westerly wind shear. As condtions aren't getting any better then Jokwe is dissipating, with very little convection remaining with the low level centre. If the remnant low manages to move then it possibly might re-develop but I wouldn't like to say how likely that is.

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