Tropical Cyclone Kamba

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 23S has formed, approximately 1000 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia. 23S is looking pretty healthy at the moment with some deep convection, particularly just west of the centre, though convection is also managing to wrap into the eastern quadrant of the cyclone. 23S is pushing generally westward, with a more southerly component later on, along the northern periphery of a steering ridge. Meteofrance are quite keen for this cyclone to strengthen fairly quickly under favourable conditions, of lowering shear, good outflow and warm sea temps. Sea temps may taper off in about 72hrs time if a more southerly motion becomes established but this is a long way off at the moment. The good thing about 23S is that is isn't threatening land at the moment and could well remain out to sea for it's lifetime.

Image of 23S, roughly located near the centre (with Jokwe to the left near Madagascar):

Taken from CIMSS

[Somerset Squall]

TC 23S has strengthened significantly overnight, and is now at 55kts. It looks pretty good on satellite imagery this morning with some quite impressive banding features. Continued strengthening is predicted due to low shear, good outflow and sufficient ocean heat content. JTWC have the intensity at 75kts by 48hrs. 23S will continue heading southwestwards along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the southeast, which should remain in place for the next several days. This means that a poleward turn could occur beyond 48hrs as the cyclone rounds the western side of the ridge-which could weaken the cyclone in the long term due to system moving over cooler waters. Indeed, this solution is favoured by Meteofrance- but it is by no means certain.

[Cookie]

another one! whats the record for Indian ocean cyclones?

[Somerset Squall]

I'm not sure but this is the 17th this season (it's called 23S because the numbers include the South Pacific which has had 6 tropical cyclones so far) and the average is 10. So well above average but I don't think it's record braking. But of course there is still time. Incidently, this season has been far more active than predicted (7-9 was the predicted number):

http://metservice.intnet.mu/wsoutluk.htm

If any one knows what the record is then please let us know

23S has maintained intensity at 55kts this afternoon as shear has increased over the system, but the shear is expected to ease again and 23S is expected to resume strengthening soon.

Edited March 8, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

I've realised a mistake I've made: this is the 17th for the entire South Indian ocean as a whole but the 12th for the southwest Indian Ocean which is the area the forecast in the link is forecasting for. But yeah, still above average and still above what was forecasted (but not by such a large margin as I originally said) and the season doesn't end for another month.

Edited March 8, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

Well the system has been named Kamba now and has strengthened a little overnight. Kamba has excellent outflow, esp on the eastern side, which is no doubt helping the system to strengthen. Convection is fairly deep near the center with a burst of convection going up near the center though the local forecasting angency is noting that the LLCC is displaced to the east but without looking at sat. loops I can't really say whether thats still the case...however it makes logical sense when you see the strength of the outflow on the eastern side compared to the western side is suggestive of some slight shear present close to the system which is probably also helping to limit the speed the system will develop. Despite this the system has got a very good shape and structure in terms of its CDO and so even tohugh there may be some high level shear present its not for now disrupting the key mid-level regons of the storm and so slow strengthening looks a good bet to me right now.

SS-in terms of ACE the basin is already 5% above average as of yesterday so we are going to have an above average season if nothing else forms in the basin this season.

Edited March 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the update Kold. That ACE reading is interesting, I guess it isn't higher than that due to the weak, short lived storms at the beginning of the season (I'm thinking Ariel, Bongwe, Celina, Dama and Elnus here) because cyclone genisis is a few cyclones above average already.

Kamba certainly spinning up nicely, it has been quite a slow one this one and JTWC have also said that it has been hampered by moderate shear, particularly over the last 24 hours. If this continues then I agree, only slow development for this one. Refreshing for a change, to monitor a cyclone that doesn't look like it's going to effect land . It was pretty heavy stuff reading about all the deaths from Ivan.

Edited March 9, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

Ive been searching all over for cyclone/TS statistics for the most active season

but without success.. the only info i got was that cyclone intensity and duration

are definately on the increase. Satellite data has only been available from the early 80's

so it'll be a few years yet until a true analysis can drawn up, as Kold says this year is up

there with the leaders and this year may prove to be a record breaker as La Nina persists

and still another month to go before the season officially ends..

http://allafrica.com/stories/200803080031.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/200604/mcinerney.pdf

[Somerset Squall]

Kamba continues to slowly intensify and is now at 65kts. The cyclone will continue to slowly strengthen over the next 24 hours or so as warm sea temps offset moderate shear. Kamba is tracking around the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the southeast and this will induce a southwards turn as mentioned earlier, which will take it over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition could begin as soon as 48hrs if the forecast track verifies as water temps shelve off quite steeply and shear is also expected to increase again beyond 24 hours.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys!

I've come into this thread for some peace and quite !

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- definitely hectic in the Spring area!

Kamba has intensified further and is now at 80kts. JTWC have Kamba peaking at 90kts before cooler waters and shear induce weakening beyond 12 hours time.

Image of Kamba from NAVY/NRL:

[Somerset Squall]

Kamba is undergoing rapid intensification now, with pressure down to 940mb. Meteofrance, using 10 minute sustained winds have Kamba at 90kts now which probably would equate to 100kts 1 minute sustained. Awaiting confirmation in the next JTWC advisory at 3pm. Kamba looks very impressive with a clear, well defined eye.

The first image I posted on the post #1 shows up better.

Edited March 10, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

some great images their mate

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks Cookie.

Kamba has significantly intensified to 110kts, a high end cat 3 on SS scale. Excellent dual outflow, low shear and warm sea temps are the reason Kamba has intensified much more than previously expected. Weakening should begin from about 12hrs as shear increases and sea temps shelve off. Interaction with a trough should induce extratropical transition by 48hrs.

[kold weather]

Yes this system certainly has turned into an impressive cyclone SS, as you say impressive dual poler outflow channels which has been a good feature of the system for the last few days and its over some decently high heat content which combined with some helpful shear (probably high level shear helping to fan the outflow the system has..its the mid-level stuff that kills tropical cylcones.)...its got a good eyewall present with some noteable deep convection in thast central ring and a decent eye as well so its really not surprising its estimated at 110, indeed I'd pronbably put it as a 115kts system but then again thats just me...another impressive system in the S.Indian season!

I think given the heat content is progged to drop away the system probasbly has peaked for now at least and a slow weakening is possible in about 24hrs time I suspect.

Edited March 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Kamba has significantly weakened over the past 24 hours, with intensity estimates at 80kts by JTWC and 75kts by MeteoFrance, though I think that may be a little high as Kamba is a real mess right now with the deepest convection displaced to the south of the centre and the eye dissapeared of satellite imagery. Kamba continues to track southwards over progressively cooler waters, thus weakening is forecasted. Shear will also increase soon and will likely be the cause of Kamba's death if extratropical transition doesn't get there first.

[Cookie]

not an extremely interesting storm, but still a good watch