Virtual Storm Chase 3

[Paul Sherman]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 622 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR MINERAL WELLS..MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK...COOL AND MILLSAP BY 630 PM CDT...

WEATHERFORD BY 655 PM CDT...

HUDSON OAKS BY 700 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN

INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY

WITH THIS STORM. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MINERAL

WELLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Nick F]

Edit: The Palo Pinto Storm has been Tornado Warned in the last few minutes and is heading hard east straight into DFW Metro for Evening Rush Hour!

Potty - Where are the Cams

That storm dropped a tornado in the end according to reports, near Aledo just west Fort Worth near the I-20:

0025  6 N ALEDO  PARKER  TX 3278 9760 TRAINED STORM SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 6-7 MILES NORTH OF ALEDO. (FWD)

Still looking like severe storms will occur over the Sern Plains Monday and Tuesday, a strong jet streak arriving across the Rockies, sfc and upper low and good moisture return on Monday:

- decent CAPE

GFS charts don't look particularly conducive to severe weather for the first few days after we land on the 27th :blink: - despite a sfc low there is a persistent upper ridge evident ... perhaps some pulse type storms over Sern TX, though the GFS has been chopping and changing alot, ECM maybe worth looking at when the 00z updates at 8.15am.

[Paul Sherman]

Looks okay to me Nick, remember our first proper chase day is Tuesday 29th April or the 00z Wednesday.

If the charts stay the same, would think about heading to Decatur for Monday night and then an early start to get up to the Northern Panhandles for Tuesday Initiation. Obviously the Charts will change a whole lot before we get there. But at the moment a Surface Low in SE Colorado looks good.

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Looks okay to me Nick, remember our first proper chase day is Tuesday 29th April or the 00z Wednesday.

But at the moment a Surface Low in SE Colorado looks good.

Trouble is a sfc low doesn't always equate to storms - because an upper ridge maybe present putting a lid on convection - even if Tds, CAPE etc look great ... that's what I was seeing on the 00z GFS output for the start of our 1st week there. But as you say, still a way off and the set-up may well change alot.

ECM looks quite good at 240hrs (00z Mon 28th) - with a upper trough heading in from the Pacific:

[Paul Sherman]

Yes you are right about the Surface Low, but with the Low in that place you can always get some good Upslope if the Surface winds are in the right direction, would be good to start off with something firing over the NM Mountains or the Palmer Divide for Instance. Good to see the ECMWF Looking good with a Potent system ejecting at 240!

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Well I did not see that Coming, SPC Wiped out Mon/Tues System and now warning of a large System from Wed-Friday

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0419 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE

WRN STATES WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE EAST THROUGH DAY 5. OVERALL

CONSENSUS IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER

MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WRN TX NWD INTO OK WHERE IT WILL

INTERSECT THE DRYLINE.

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR AHEAD

OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS.

HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED

TO SURFACE BASED STORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG EML WITH SWLY

FLOW ALOFT AND TENDENCY FOR IMPULSES EMANATING FROM UPPER TROUGH TO

EJECT NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE

MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG

THE COLD FRONT AND POSE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS

CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SWD PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND DETAILS

REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN. THE SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT

AS WELL AS THE DRYLINE MAY AT SOME POINT BECOME THE FOCUS FOR

STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME. A RISK AREA MAY NEED

TO BE REINTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL

PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN

ESTABLISHED.

[Nick F]

I suppose the uncertainty is good in that the models shouldn't be believed too much beyond 5 days! So the outlook may well change alot for our arrival.

[pottyprof]

Better late than never.... B)

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36945

A list of all sorts and everything for the virtual chase..

[kold weather]

Yeah the ECM is much better for you guys then the long range GFS, would think there could be quite a decent spell of severe weather from the 1st through to the 3rd as the upper low moves over the plains.

anyway yep some uncertainty within the models now, the GFS still shows a fairly unstable set-up for Monday and Tuesday, esp in the eastern half of the plains however the SPC obviously sees too much model disagreement to put any risk on that right now, I think eventually we will see a slight risk for Monday and Tuesday however.

[dogs32]

Severe weather reported

18 Apr 2008

The Dallas-Fort Worth area was buffeted by severe weather on Thursday night (April 17th).

According to the Houston Chronicle (April 18th), the storm produced hailstones as big as golf balls and reports of a possible tornado.

The area west of Dallas-Fort Worth was the worst affected, with police cars damaged by the hail.

Winds are said to have reached around 60 miles per hour, with the reported tornado being in Parker County.

"This is certainly typical springtime severe weather tonight," said National Weather Service meteorologist Dan Huckaby.

There are no reports of any injuries or severe damage. It is the second storm to hit the area in a week.

[Nick F]

Can see why the SPC has backtracked from its earlier severe storm potential on Monday and Tuesday ... it is quite evident that, despite a sfc low over the Sern Rockies both days - with advection north of a high Tds as far north as Nebraska and Iowa, the presence of a ridge at 500mb over much of the Plains prevents the chance of much convection developing ... though a chance up north on Tues:

NAM-WRF and GFS 00z Tues (18z Mon US mid-west time):

GFS 00z Weds(18z Tues), does look a chance of storms over Nern Plains towards Great Lakes:

Does look like an improving picture by Weds, 00z Thurs (18z Weds) chart shows upper ridge relaxing and some potential over the Sern Plains:

[Nick F]

HPC discussions this evening seem to think storms will kick-off Weds onwards:

CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY/WRN LAKES...

THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE WAVY

COLD FRONT ON ITS ERN EDGE INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL/PLAINS AND

MID/UPPER MS VLY. AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD COMMENCE

EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING QUITE

ACTIVE WED AND BEYOND. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF WHICH COULD OCCUR OVER

FLOOD-PRONE AREAS STILL RECOVERING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[NL]

Just two 'possible' touchdowns both in the SW of Missouri (misery) in yesterdays Slight risk area yesterday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[Cookie]

There were 2 Tornado Reports Yesterday*| Today | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
2040 	UNK 	8 E CARPENTER 	COPIAH 	MS 	32.03 	-90.54 	BELOW
ROOF OF A HOME HEAVILY DAMAGED AND NUMEROUS TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (JAN)
2100 	UNK 	2 NW TERRY 	HINDS 	MS 	32.12 	-90.32 	BELOW
POSSIBLE TORNADO AROUND MIDWAY ROAD...DELANEY ROAD... AND LEBANON-PINE RD. HOUSES DAMAGED...TREES DOWN... POWER LINES DOWN. (JAN)