Virtual Storm Chase 3

[justinflavin]

live doppler radar , from channel 2 georgia

http://www.wsbtv.com/video/11388801/detail.html

[Nick F]

Some potent looking supercells heading towards Atlanta right now from the west ... one of them tornado warned now ... funny how they make a beeline for a large populated area like Atlanta:

[Roger J Smith]

Seems from the live radar that the tornadic storm is heading towards the south side of Atlanta but the damaged area downtown is not entirely out of the track of severe weather again. CNN broadcasting from their damaged buildings a few minutes ago, the chief met there (Chad Myers) saying that he might need to move to a safer floor soon as there is already little left of the roof where he was at the time. Video of the damage (F2) looked fairly substantial with one apartment building in a converted warehouse looking extensively damaged at one end. Large stone pillars in a park blown over.

The storms earlier and ongoing in north to northeast GA also looking very nasty on radar, Gainesville and Athens GA have been in the path as well as the resort area of Lake Laneer.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/streamaudio.html#livestream

Click on the Atlanta (Georgia) Weather Radio

Paul S

[Nick F]

Some nasty storms to be caught out in Paul near Atlanta ... baseball size hail, 60 mph winds, dangerous lightning and the risk of a tornado!

Storm in SW suburbs of Atlanta has signature of a tornado and baseball hail according to wx radio!!

[Paul Sherman]

Think this could be a 4 day outbreak Nick, with another Moderate on Monday.

3 Back to Back Warnings just come through :o

[Nick F]

Looks like the supercell clearing the SE side of Atlanta has a hook on it - a TVS:

[Gorky]

Very strong couplet in Elbert Conty,GA. The storm has just crossed into SC now

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys :o

thats 11 tornadoes for today

There have been 11 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) Strength Location County State Lat Lon Comments

1940 UNK DUE WEST ABBEVILLE SC 34.33 -82.39 BELOW

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY A SHERIFFS DEPUTY AROUND DUE WEST AND TREES REPORTED DOWNED. (GSP)

1857 UNK 3 SE ROYSTON HART GA 34.25 -83.07 BELOW

911 CENTER REPORTED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO 3 MILES SE OF ROYSTON ALONG HIGHWAY 17. (GSP)

1850 UNK DUE WEST ABBEVILLE SC 34.33 -82.39 BELOW

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY A SHERIFFS DEPUTY AROUND DUE WEST AND TREES REPORTED DOWNED. (GSP)

1825 UNK 6 SSE HOMER BANKS GA 34.25 -83.46 BELOW

TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR INTERSTATE 85 NEAR EXIT 149. (FFC)

1758 UNK 3 S GAINESVILLE HALL GA 34.25 -83.83 BELOW

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF GAINESVILLE. DAMAGE REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN. (FFC)

1738 UNK 3 N CUMMING FORSYTH GA 34.25 -84.14 BELOW

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED CROSSING GA 400 NORTH OF CUMMING. (FFC)

1648 UNK 3 SW CARTERSVILLE BARTOW GA 34.14 -84.84 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS DAMAGED TREES AND BULDINGS NEAR WOODLAND HIGH SCHOOL. (FFC)

1642 UNK 3 E EUHARLEE BARTOW GA 34.14 -84.88 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO KNOCKED DOWN SEVERAL TREES ALONG EUHARLEE ROAD. (FFC)

1635 UNK 1 N TAYLORSVILLE BARTOW GA 34.11 -84.99 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE ALONG POPUM ROAD NORTH OF TAYLORSVILLE. (FFC)

1624 UNK 2 NW ARAGON POLK GA 34.07 -85.08 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 101...EMERGENCY CREWS HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED DUE TO REPORTS OF HEAVY DAMAGE. (FFC)

1628 UNK 7 SE LINDALE FLOYD GA 34.12 -85.09 BELOW

*** 1 FATAL

[pottyprof]

Only just got back in............. wooooooooooo!! What have I missed??

[pottyprof]

A contact in Pageland, North Carolina says a tornado was sighted within 10 miles from her, in union county.

[Nick F]

Just flying out the tornado warnings now ... 7 in the last half hour stretching from Atlanta, Nern GA east across South Carolina right into Sern North Carolina.

http://www.weather.gov/view/national.php?prodtype=tornado

Tornado reports in last 3 hours:

2040  PROSPERITY  NEWBERRY  SC 3421 8153 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED IN PROSPERITY. ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE AND TREES DOWN. (CAE) 
2045  6 W MCCORMICK  MCCORMICK  SC 3391 8240 POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREES DOWN ON HWY 81 NEAR WILLINGTON. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED. (CAE) 
2105  EDGEFIELD  EDGEFIELD  SC 3379 8193 POSSIBLE TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TREE ON HOUSE. MAIN DAMAGE ON HWY 378W NEAR MCCORMICK COUNTY LINE. (CAE) 
2110  ATHENS  CLARKE  GA 3396 8339 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR GAINES SCHOOL AND LEXINGTON ROADS. (FFC) 
2133  LUGOFF  KERSHAW  SC 3423 8068 SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MUTIPLE DAMAGE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND HOMES DAMAGED. (CAE) 
2144  4 ESE LEXINGTON  LEXINGTON  SC 3396 8116 COUNTY 911 OFFICAL REPORTS HOME DAMAGED AND LARGE TREES DOWN AT TRUAX RD IN LEXINGTON COUNTY. (CAE) 
2225  2 S KEYSVILLE  BURKE  GA 3321 8223 SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS LARGE TREES DOWN AND LARGE HAIL NEAR ROAD 305 SOUTH OF KEYSVILLE. (CAE) 
2227  1 E NORTH AUGUSTA  AIKEN  SC 3352 8194 LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS 2 TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN THE CITIES OF NORTH AUGUSTA AND BELVEDERE. (CAE)

[justinflavin]

there's a gallery of hail photos via this page

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/15607078/detail.html

some of the hail is around 1 to 2inches wide.

[Cookie]

thanks for the link mate :o

we're now up to 20 for today

[Cookie]

my final update for tonight.

22 in total.

heres the full list

There have been 22 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) Strength Location County State Lat Lon Comments

2305 UNK 3 W ST. MATTHEWS LEXINGTON SC 34.05 -81.16 BELOW

MEDIA REPORTS TORNADO DAMAGE ON I-26 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 136. (CAE)

2227 UNK 1 E NORTH AUGUSTA AIKEN SC 33.52 -81.94 BELOW

LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS 2 TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN THE CITIES OF NORTH AUGUSTA AND BELVEDERE. (CAE)

2225 UNK 2 S KEYSVILLE BURKE GA 33.21 -82.23 BELOW

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS LARGE TREES DOWN AND LARGE HAIL NEAR ROAD 305 SOUTH OF KEYSVILLE. (CAE)

2220 UNK MATTHEWS JEFFERSON GA 33.21 -82.31 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO DESTROYED UNKNOWN NUMBER MOBILE HOMES. (FFC)

2144 UNK 4 ESE LEXINGTON LEXINGTON SC 33.96 -81.16 BELOW

COUNTY 911 OFFICAL REPORTS HOME DAMAGED AND LARGE TREES DOWN AT TRUAX RD IN LEXINGTON COUNTY. (CAE)

2133 UNK LUGOFF KERSHAW SC 34.23 -80.68 BELOW

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MUTIPLE DAMAGE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND HOMES DAMAGED. (CAE)

2110 UNK ATHENS CLARKE GA 33.96 -83.39 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR GAINES SCHOOL AND LEXINGTON ROADS. (FFC)

2105 UNK EDGEFIELD EDGEFIELD SC 33.79 -81.93 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TREE ON HOUSE. MAIN DAMAGE ON HWY 378W NEAR MCCORMICK COUNTY LINE. (CAE)

2045 UNK 6 W MCCORMICK MCCORMICK SC 33.91 -82.4 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREES DOWN ON HWY 81 NEAR WILLINGTON. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED. (CAE)

2040 UNK PROSPERITY NEWBERRY SC 34.21 -81.53 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED IN PROSPERITY. ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE AND TREES DOWN. (CAE)

1940 UNK DUE WEST ABBEVILLE SC 34.33 -82.39 BELOW

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY A SHERIFFS DEPUTY AROUND DUE WEST AND TREES REPORTED DOWNED. (GSP)

1857 UNK 3 SE ROYSTON HART GA 34.25 -83.07 BELOW

911 CENTER REPORTED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO 3 MILES SE OF ROYSTON ALONG HIGHWAY 17. (GSP)

1850 UNK DUE WEST ABBEVILLE SC 34.33 -82.39 BELOW

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY A SHERIFFS DEPUTY AROUND DUE WEST AND TREES REPORTED DOWNED. (GSP)

1825 UNK 6 SSE HOMER BANKS GA 34.25 -83.46 BELOW

TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR INTERSTATE 85 NEAR EXIT 149. (FFC)

1758 UNK 3 S GAINESVILLE HALL GA 34.25 -83.83 BELOW

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF GAINESVILLE. DAMAGE REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN. (FFC)

1738 UNK 3 N CUMMING FORSYTH GA 34.25 -84.14 BELOW

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED CROSSING GA 400 NORTH OF CUMMING. (FFC)

1648 UNK 3 SW CARTERSVILLE BARTOW GA 34.14 -84.84 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS DAMAGED TREES AND BULDINGS NEAR WOODLAND HIGH SCHOOL. (FFC)

1642 UNK 3 E EUHARLEE BARTOW GA 34.14 -84.88 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO KNOCKED DOWN SEVERAL TREES ALONG EUHARLEE ROAD. (FFC)

1635 UNK 1 N TAYLORSVILLE BARTOW GA 34.11 -84.99 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE ALONG POPUM ROAD NORTH OF TAYLORSVILLE. (FFC)

1628 UNK MAYSVILLE JACKSON GA 34.25 -83.56 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE EMPLOYEE. (FFC)

1624 UNK 2 NW ARAGON POLK GA 34.07 -85.08 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 101...EMERGENCY CREWS HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED DUE TO REPORTS OF HEAVY DAMAGE. (FFC)

1628 UNK 7 SE LINDALE FLOYD GA 34.12 -85.09 BELOW

*** 1 FATAL

[Nick F]

SLGT risk today over the TX and OK Panhandle ... looks an afternoon of LP supercells with capability of large hail and strong wind gusts rather than chance for a tornado - as storms will be high-based. But some great photo oppurtunities perhaps in the Cap Escarpment area ... with a steak meal washed down by a few 32oz beers at the Big Texan, Amarillo to finish off the day! Think I'll target just east of Amarillo - Panhandle, TX.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH

PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

TRANSITION TO A MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS AN

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SWRN U.S. WITH ATTENDANT DOWNSTREAM

AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS. IN

RESPONSE TO ESEWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP

OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE

DEVELOPING LEE LOW. THIS WILL ADVECT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE

RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF NWWD THROUGH TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO

NEAR 70 WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TX COAST DURING THE DAY WITH

50S REACHING NWRN TX BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT

NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO

DESTABILIZATION MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MUCAPE

APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP

WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY

BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN NM THROUGH SERN CO WHERE DEEP

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH

BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY

SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM

POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE OF

DESTABILIZATION AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED

ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL RESULT IN A

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/16/2008

Tomorrow, a larger SLGT risk area covering central belt of TX from the far south upto the OK border including OK itself ... main risk of severe looks to be southcentral TX with maybe a better chance of tornadoes ... so I'm going with a provisionary target of San Angelo, TX (maybe revised in the morning) as this looks to be the best place to catch storm firing on the dry line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Cookie]

in total their was 31 tornadoes yesterday

There have been 31 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

This one looks like a Large Hail / Large Wind event to me, Tomorrow should be the main show still.

Anyhow looking at the Models, I would place myself a bit further South than Nick along I29 Between Lubbock and Amarillo. So a Chase Target of Plainview for me, would expect storms to form along or near the I29 Corridoor and move North-Eastwards towards Southern Kansas and Western Oklahoma, If i was chasing today I would not be moving about that much as I would use the old Stairstep Trick and pick and sample a Storm before the next in the line would come up, this way with more Northward movement would end up pretty near to Amarillo anyway, whereas Nick would be somewhere near to Greensburg by the end of the Day No Steak for you! :o

Paul S

[Nick F]

Two 10% tornado risk areas today in the SLGT risk area, which covers central/NErn TX, much of OK and parts of KS, AR and MO. I'm going to stick with San Angelo, TX for today's target ... 30% risk of large hail there too.

...SRN PLAINS AREA...

ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM

PARTS OF OK INTO KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING HAIL. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER THE SRN

PLAINS WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION

WITH IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER

THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN

DURING THE EVENING OVER TX AS EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATES

THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND THEN NEWD TOWARD TX. RICHER LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE

ADVECTING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE

AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE

BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN PRESENCE OF A STRONG EML AND

LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS

WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EAST THROUGH THE SRN

TRAN-PECOS AND INTO THE WRN HILL COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE

HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY

AS THE SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING.

PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE

PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR

FROM ERN PARTS OF WRN TX NWD INTO OK. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT

ORGANIZED STORM INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH

DEEPENS THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME

ANA-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING DOMINANT STORM MODE WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE

INTO LINEAR...BUT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES

REMAINING POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BECOME THE

MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS

ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT.

Looks like a nice squall line moved through Paul and I's targets into the overnight period:

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Nick, loving your Target for today,

SAN ANGELO For me as well, or just a tad North between there and Abilene or east to Fredericksburg!!

Night time meal in the Chilli's :huh:

Paul S

[NL]

Well as many have been thinking, todays slight has been upgraded to moderate risk

Northern central Texas, good call Nick.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

Edited March 17, 2008 by NL

[NL]

Latest satellite images visible and IR.

[Gorky]

Well the last time I said this, I was a mile out, but I'm starting out in Brady again for tonights virtual chase. I'll be up late as I have tomorrow mornign off work so let's see what happens (*cue bust*)

Moderate risk out for tomorrow also btw, with 45% hatched threat for SE Texas.

SPC AC 171617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1117 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF

SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...

,..SRN PLAINS...

COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN MEXICO WITH

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS LOWER

RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SWRN TX LATER TONIGHT. WHILE ONE SPEED MAX

NOW EXITING THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM THE PRIMARY

500MB 100KT WIND MAX WILL APPROACH S TX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM SERN KS TO SWRN OK THEN WWD INTO ERN NM.

FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER E OF LBB A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD INTO MEX

VICINITY RIO GRANDE BIG BEND.

THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVELY

SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE

60S NWD TO RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS CAPPED BY A

PRONOUNCED EML WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY IN EXCESS

OF 8C/KM.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP PARTICULARLY VICINITY DRY LINE AND

NEAR COLD FRONT NWRN TX. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 2000

J/KG AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THREAT FOR

SURFACE INITIATION WILL INCREASE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY COLD

FRONT AND DRY LINE . STORMS ABLE TO FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE

WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

BY THIS EVENING THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX EWD THIS

AFTERNOON INTO WCENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY RETREAT AHEAD OF STRONG

ASCENT AND UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM NERN MEXICO. EXACTLY WHERE

THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP THIS EVENING IS A LITTLE

UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE E WILL BE VERY

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR

TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THUS THE UPGRADE TO A MDT RISK FOR

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT

DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF

STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS

AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS. SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE AS LOW

LEVEL JET IN S TX BACKS AND INCREASES TO 50KT ENHANCING THE

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR MODE LATER TONIGHT

WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS

CENTRAL TX.

FURTHER N INTO OK AND LOWER MO VALLEY...MUCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL

REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT. A

LITTLE GREATER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO OK E OF COLD

FRONT WHICH WOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/17/2008

[Nick F]

Something firing just north of San Angelo - my target area, this line may extend further south over the next few hours

[NL]

Tornado warning for Nolan County TX