Tropical Cyclone 24P

[Somerset Squall]

After a very quiet February and an inactive first half of March, a tropical cyclone has formed in the south Pacific, northwest of New Caledonia. Conditions are favourable for strengthening initially, with low shear and good poleward outflow. The cyclone will make landfall in New Caledonia where rain is likely to be more problematic than wind. After this, 24P will continue to weaken as it pushes southeastwards along the northeastern periphery of a steering ridge, due to increased shear and cooler waters once it clears New Caledonia. Not expected to be a long lived storm but things may change. Certainly one for New Caledonia to be wary of.

Satellite image:

Taken from CIMSS

[kold weather]

Not that surprising its got upgraded simply because sat.estimates do suggest its reached tropical storm strength that the JWTC use to upgrade, though note its not been named yet offically.

Anyway obvious circulation with a clear inflow channel already set-up. Nice LLCC present with the system however one concern with the system has to be the lack of convection thats present within its circulation. There is convection near the center but its not that dense has to be said and there are gaps in the convection which would suggest that any strengthening, though the inflow channel is going to help overcome this to some degree I'd have thought. If it can gain wider convection over the center then it could develop a little faster but its all ifs and buts, no reason why that can't happen though. Rain should be more an issue with this system unless it really ramps up, in the convection there could be some heavy downpours though right now there are some gaps still in that cloud coverage.

Saying all that there is a deep burst of convection just to the north of the center which could expand under favorable condtions.

Edited March 20, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

nice to finally get a new system.

Tropical Storm 24P is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

New Caledonia

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert cookie.

24P has moved briskly south-southeastward overnight and remains at 35kts. The cyclone clipped northwestern New Caledonia but i suspect effects were minimal. 24P isn't going to last much longer as already conditions are becoming hostile with increasingly strong shear, lower sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat content generally. 24P is expected to dissipate by 24hrs. You can see on satellite imagery that 24P still has a defined LLC but convection is starting to wane and the convective banding isn't as good as yesterday.

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have issued their final warning on 24P. Hardly surprising really given the shear thats blasting the cyclone at the moment, whcih is forecast to get even stronger. Most of the deep convection is displaced south of the centre which has become exposed. Although 24P has stopped moving southeast and has instead taken on a southwestward motion keeping it away from the really cool waters, the environment is just too hostile and this seems to be the end for this very short lived cyclone.

The South Pacific is usually less active than the South Indian Ocean but there is quite a gap this year- the South Pacific has been very quiet. This has been the only cyclone so far in March (and it was very weak) and all February had was a weakening Gene at the beginning of the month a 12 hour lasting 30kt cyclone on the 29th. January was more active but I think you'll agree that the South Pacific season has paled in comparison to the South Indian season so far.

[Cookie]

final warning!

Storm Alert issued at 21 Mar, 2008 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression 24P is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

New Caledonia

probability for TS is 35% currently

[Somerset Squall]

I'm not going to speculate too much on what chances 24P has of re-developing other to say it's unlikely but it's interesting to note the remnant low is still intact and pushing westwards.

[Cookie]

you can never say never