Tropical Cyclone Lola

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 25S has formed in the South Indian Ocean, 400 nautical miles northeast of La Reunion. The newly formed cyclone looks in pretty good shape at the moment with a lot of deep convection over the centre, with some weak banding forming. 25S will push westwards along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the south, which will bring it ever closer to Madagascar, though whether the cyclone will make landfall there or not is far too early to tell. 25S should strengthen though under favourable conditions, with low shear, good poleward outflow and high sea temps persisting. JTWC have it at 50kts by 48hrs though it is possible it could be stronger than that by then. Another one to watch, particularly if it gets too near Madagascar next week.

Satellite image (25S to the left, quite a way east of Madagascar):

Taken from CIMSS

[NL]

Has deepened quite significantly since i looked at it this morning.. What a season they're having..!!

[Cookie]

whats the number for this region this season?

[Somerset Squall]

whats the number for this region this season?

The 17th for the South Indian Ocean (including the cyclones formed near NW Australia which is techinally the South Indian Ocean) or 14th if you just include the western South Indian Ocean. I think that's correct anyway- if I'm wrong someone please tell me. Significantly above average obviously.

Thanks for the images NL, MeteoFrance have been monitoring the system for a day or so and it certainly began spinning up really well today as you say.

[kold weather]

Well I was going to make a long post but my computer messed up on me so I'll keep this one breif!

Good convection over the center, also very good outflow considering the systems strength. This should mean under increasingly favorable upper atmopsheric conditions and also pretty high heat content strengthening could occur, indeed I wouldn't be too surprised if once it sorts its inner core out it could strengthen quite rapidly but we will have to wait and see.

[Cookie]

thanks somerset.

[Somerset Squall]

25S has been upgraded to TC Lola, with an intensity of 40kts. Shear is currently impinging on Lola, but outflow remains very good and for this reason JTWC are forecasting slow intensification. Lola will continue heading westward for the next 12 hours or so before a more west-northwestward turn begins in response to a weakness in the steering ridge created by a trough. JTWC have Lola at 60kts by 48hrs, with slow strengthening the way forward because of persisiting shear and slightly cooler sea temps, but good outflow.

[Somerset Squall]

Lola has continued to be hampered by shear and low sea temps, and is still at 40kts. Convection is displaced from the centre which has been partially exposed at times. However, on Lola's westward track, conditions are forecasted to improve. Lola will slowly intensify or maintain intensity for the next 24hrs before shear begins to lessen as Lola rounds the periphery of the steering ridge and begins to move south. As this happens, the JTWC mention that dual outflow may improve which may lead to more rapid intensification beyond 36hrs. If the more southerly motion materialises then Madagascar may escape Lola in the coming days.

[Cookie]

[Mesosphere]

here's the latest showing the cyclone :-

taken at 2.00pm

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the image Calum.

The tracking image Cookie posted clearly shows that a southward turn is being quite confidently predicted now which takes the cyclone away from Madagascar but nearer to Mauritius and La Reunion. Shouldn't be much of a problem if Lola stays as weak as she is currently but both MeteoFrance and JTWC predict strengthening to occur with the southward turn as shear eases and sea temps increase.

[Mesosphere]

Thanks for the image Calum.

always happy to provide some images

Here's the Latest NHC Color Enhancement and Visible Images of the Cyclone :-

Edited March 24, 2008 by Calum

[Somerset Squall]

Your image clearly shows what a mess Lola is this morning. Lola is no longer expected to re-strengthen and has indeed ceased to be a tropical cyclone. This is a significant change from what was expected yesterday. Lola has wobbled northward and degenerated into a remnant low due to continued very strong shear (25-30kts of easterly shear according to the JTWC). Limited convection to the south of the poorly defined centre is all that remains. The remnants of Lola are expected to move southwards and are not expected to re-develop. Therefore JTWC have issued a final warning on Lola- a bit of a surprise really when the last forecast indicated a 60kt cyclone at 48hrs!

JTWC mention there is a small chance of re-generation but this is most likely if at all as an extratropical storm over cooler waters o the southward track.

[Mesosphere]

Your image clearly shows what a mess Lola is this morning. Lola is no longer expected to re-strengthen and has indeed ceased to be a tropical cyclone.

Yep , this latest image sums up what you just said

[Cookie]

just want to thank you also for you're images

[NL]

Well seems that Lola is having one last go ... has winded up slightly

but is expected to dip south and fall apart later today.

[Mesosphere]

just want to thank you also for you're images

thanks cookie

Edited March 25, 2008 by Calum

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, it almost looked like it may have reached depression strength this morning but the convection has since largely become confined to the south of the centre again, indicative of a sheared system. MeteoFrance are still issuing advisories on Lola as a disturbance but they aren't considering it for re-intensification.

[NL]

The IR image does show southwest of centre activity pretty well..

High centre cloud tops on the V/satellite image.

Edited March 25, 2008 by NL

[Somerset Squall]

Well if the shear eases down and Lola's remnants manage to stay over warmer waters then it may manage to wrap that deep convection around the centre allowing a little redevelopment. But time is running out as the system is moving southward into cooler water. Although shear is decreasing slightly in the region as a whole, Lola's remnants may actually move into even stronger shear over the next 24hrs. Chances are that Lola will not re-develop into a tropical cyclone but then I guess you can never say never and judging by the twists and turns this season has produced then I may end up with egg on my face .

Chart from CIMSS showing high shear in the area, note that Lola's remnants are moving into that stronger shear to the east of southern Madagascar:

[kold weather]

I'll be surprised if Lola does re-develop, though IMO it actually may have been a borderline TS strength system at one point in the early hours of this morning, then the shear increased and blew the convection to the south.

Despite this there is some pretty strong convection and is being pushed over Mauritius currently and with the strong convective downbursts I suspect we could still see wind gusts of 45-50mph along with some pretty heavy rain.

[Cookie]

It always makes it more interesting when these systems don't give up

[Somerset Squall]

It always makes it more interesting when these systems don't give up

Indeed, this South Indian Ocean season has certainly had some fighting systems. Lola is trying it's hardest to re-develop, as has already been said there is some pretty decent convection to the south but the centre remains exposed preventing it from being re-classified. The environment is just too hostile for Lola's remnants.