Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[carinthian]

A huge loss of old ice occurred in last summers melt,particularly in the Siberian Arctic Ocean. How much of this winters formation survives will be of great interest again. Thickness values will be the deciding factor. Senors that measure and record the growth of first year ice can produce unreliable information when the outside temperature falls below -35C. It will be several more weeks before the Canadian and Greenland results can be certified as being read as correct. Very low temperatures that become established over the Eastern Arctic Sector of Canada has produced the highest ice cover there since 1994/95. Generally, ice cover this winter is marginally below the longer term norm, with no great advance this spring down the East Greenland coast and the Barent mostly ice free again. Whether the thickness and how much of this winters ice formation following a cold Arctic winter is enough to survive is going to be crucial.

C

[Interitus]

Senors that measure and record the growth of first year ice can produce unreliable information when the outside temperature falls below -35C.

Unsuprising as Spaniards are not used to temperatures that low!

[carinthian]

A huge loss of old ice occurred in last summers melt,particularly in the Siberian Arctic Ocean. How much of this winters formation survives will be of great interest again. Thickness values will be the deciding factor. Sensors that measure and record the growth of first year ice can produce unreliable information when the outside temperature falls below -35C. It will be several more weeks before the Canadian and Greenland results can be certified as being read as correct. Very low temperatures that become established over the Eastern Arctic Sector of Canada has produced the highest ice cover there since 1994/95. Generally, ice cover this winter is marginally below the longer term norm, with no great advance this spring down the East Greenland coast and the Barent mostly ice free again. Whether the thickness and how much of this winters ice formation following a cold Arctic winter is enough to survive is going to be crucial.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Arctic ice blanket at record low

Wednesday, March 19, 2008 'Tough as nails' ice which covers the Arctic sea all year round melted to a record low last year.

An area more than five times the size of Britain was lost and last summer's level was a quarter lower than ever before.

Despite gains in winter, the ice was very thin and only six months old.

It would be prone to heavy melting come summer, warned Walter Meier of the US Snow and Ice Data Centre.

Compared with the 1980s, three-quarters of the 'tough as nails' sea ice has disappeared, Mr Meier added.

If that is not bad enough, what is left of it is being swept out of the Arctic, where it will melt, by atmospheric pressure.

Summer Arctic sea ice is intricately connected to weather conditions the world over.

It affects wind patterns and temperatures as far south as the Gulf Stream in Mexico – acting as a sort of fridge for the globe by cooling sea water. Last winter, 15million sq km of ice formed over the Arctic – a four per cent rise and the most since 2003.

But instead of thick ice which can withstand summer, the thin layer will melt as much – if not more – as last year. And, without it, we could be in trouble.

'We're in for a world of hurt this summer,' said ice scientist Mark Serreze.

'What happens there matters here,' said Waleed Abdalati, a Nasa ice scientist.

'Climate for the period of human record has depended on the ice being there.'

--------------------------------

and;

By Daniel Nicholas

21:46, March 19th 2008

<DIV class=KonaBody VYLv2="true"> According to a recent study, it seems that the Arctic ice is simply melting away. Although this winter the sea’s ice seems to have made a partial recovery compared to last summer’s record melt, this apparent improvement is nothing else than an illusion, according to a report made public by federal scientist on Tuesday. Walter Meier, a scientist at the National Snow and Javier Solana and External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said on March 13 in an 11-page report.

Russia in August planted a flag on the Arctic seabed at the North Pole, staking a claim to billions of dollars of natural resources that are becoming more accessible as the sea ice retreats because of warmer temperatures. The U.S., Denmark, Canada, Norway and Russia all lay claim to part of the Arctic.

-------------------------------------------

and finally ,these;

http://www.dailyindia.com/show/226150.php/...clining-rapidly

http://www.efluxmedia.com/news_Study_Warns...Pool_15310.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/18/AR2008031802903.html?

hpid=moreheadlineshttp://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/193284,nasa-long-term-sea-ice-shrinks-in-arctic.html://http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-in-arctic.html

As I have said before it is not the extent we are looking at as a sign of recovery but the maintainance of ice over summer (to rebuild the 'multiyear' reserves) and all signs point to a continuance of its ablation.

So, all in all, well done the Arctic for having a cold season and bumping ice extent up to just below the long term average but as for this summer and it's impacts, I have major concerns.

Ian.

[Mr Sleet]

Arctic ice blanket at record low

Wednesday, March 19, 2008 'Tough as nails' ice which covers the Arctic sea all year round melted to a record low last year.

An area more than five times the size of Britain was lost and last summer's level was a quarter lower than ever before.

Despite gains in winter, the ice was very thin and only six months old.

It would be prone to heavy melting come summer, warned Walter Meier of the US Snow and Ice Data Centre.

Compared with the 1980s, three-quarters of the 'tough as nails' sea ice has disappeared, Mr Meier added.

If that is not bad enough, what is left of it is being swept out of the Arctic, where it will melt, by atmospheric pressure.

Summer Arctic sea ice is intricately connected to weather conditions the world over.

It affects wind patterns and temperatures as far south as the Gulf Stream in Mexico – acting as a sort of fridge for the globe by cooling sea water. Last winter, 15million sq km of ice formed over the Arctic – a four per cent rise and the most since 2003.

But instead of thick ice which can withstand summer, the thin layer will melt as much – if not more – as last year. And, without it, we could be in trouble.

'We're in for a world of hurt this summer,' said ice scientist Mark Serreze.

'What happens there matters here,' said Waleed Abdalati, a Nasa ice scientist.

You may be right Gray Wolf, but I wait with interest to see what actually happens, rather than rely on emotional statements from ice scientists and EU commissioners.

NHemisphere Ice extent now plateauing a good month later than last year.

[Gray-Wolf]

You may be right Gray Wolf, but I wait with interest to see what actually happens, rather than rely on emotional statements from ice scientists and EU commissioners.

NHemisphere Ice extent now plateauing a good month later than last year.

You sound 'hopeful' Mr S. Why?

[oldsnowywizard]

You sound 'hopeful' Mr S. Why?

worrying times all in all... i shall be watching the melt with great interest..

mind you the global situation might not be as dire because of the sea ice growing down under..

[Mr Sleet]

worrying times all in all... i shall be watching the melt with great interest..

mind you the global situation might not be as dire because of the sea ice growing down under..

Thats right, globally things are neutral.

As for the north, will be very interesting to see what happens. suspect some humble pie will be offered to but rejected by certain posters who have nailed their colours very firmly to the mast (mention no names ) but here's an anagram as a clue - Wary Flog I'm cautiously optimistic that the polar bears will be ok.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thats right, globally things are neutral.

As for the north, will be very interesting to see what happens. suspect some humble pie will be offered to but rejected by certain posters who have nailed their colours very firmly to the mast (mention no names ) but here's an anagram as a clue - Wary Flog :lol: I'm cautiously optimistic that the polar bears will be ok. :lol:

Oh! for your misplaced optimism my friend [as Watkins lets go 'down under'].

this summer will not only consign summer ice in the arctic to the archives but the 'new' info to emerge from 'down under' will also nudge mainstay thinking more towards my vision of the fate of EAIS than away from it!!

I'd keep to the pretty images of snowmobiles my friend........

[tinybill]

soory i moved it

[carinthian]

Latest reports show excessive sea ice in the Bering Sea (25%) up on the last 30 year norm. A late cold spell has induced ice formation in the Barent Sea, still (20%) below the longer term average, however (10%) up from this same time last year. So encouraging signs as the ice formation seasons comes towards the end, particuarly after such a slow start. Now we await the thickness values of this years growth in the high/ middle Arctic zones. A prolonged spell of sub 35C temperatures over quite a large section of the Ocean could help reverse last years spectacular loss. Time will tell.

C

[carinthian]

Latest reports show excessive sea ice in the Bering Sea (25%) up on the last 30 year norm. A late cold spell has induced ice formation in the Barent Sea, still (20%) below the longer term average, however (10%) up from this same time last year. So encouraging signs as the ice formation seasons comes towards the end, particuarly after such a slow start. Now we await the thickness values of this years growth in the high/ middle Arctic zones. A prolonged spell of sub 35C temperatures over quite a large section of the Ocean could help reverse last years spectacular loss. Time will tell.

C

Old harbour in Svalbard iced up at the moment. Current temperature -19C. Coldest spell of the winter season.

C

[Filski]

Thanks for the update Carinthian.

I am somewhat optimistic that a delay to the melt will be seen this year and a shortened summer (based on little more than dubious signals from down south and some hopecasting). This may allow the recovery of some multi-year ice, though not as much was lost last year. Let's see shall we. Things are not good but Mother Nature has a habit of ironing out the spikes (being 2007).

Gray Wolf is correct to worry. The longer trend, even if we do get a couple of cool years now is one of warming and reduction of ice. Sceptics should not take signals of a superficial recovery as justification for their position.

[carinthian]

Thanks for the update Carinthian.

I am somewhat optimistic that a delay to the melt will be seen this year and a shortened summer (based on little more than dubious signals from down south and some hopecasting). This may allow the recovery of some multi-year ice, though not as much was lost last year. Let's see shall we. Things are not good but Mother Nature has a habit of ironing out the spikes (being 2007).

Gray Wolf is correct to worry. The longer trend, even if we do get a couple of cool years now is one of warming and reduction of ice. Sceptics should not take signals of a superficial recovery as justification for their position.

Hello Filski,

Too right. A very serious event has been unfolding, particularly during the past few years. Summer loss is a real worry. However, as you point out mother nature has a surprise now and then. There has been some real low temperatures lately in the middle/high Arctic Region with some noticeable variability in ice formation.

C

[Mr Sleet]

Thanks for the update Carinthian.

I am somewhat optimistic that a delay to the melt will be seen this year and a shortened summer (based on little more than dubious signals from down south and some hopecasting). This may allow the recovery of some multi-year ice, though not as much was lost last year. Let's see shall we. Things are not good but Mother Nature has a habit of ironing out the spikes (being 2007).

Gray Wolf is correct to worry. The longer trend, even if we do get a couple of cool years now is one of warming and reduction of ice. Sceptics should not take signals of a superficial recovery as justification for their position.

It's not a superficial recovery it's a natural recovery. Lets wait and see if 2007 was a freak event or not.

[carinthian]

Old harbour in Svalbard iced up at the moment. Current temperature -19C. Coldest spell of the winter season.

C

Evening all,

RE: Svalbard Cold Spell.. Latest Metar records m22c, low last night was m27c. Highest max today was recorded at m17c. The average temperature for late March is max of matec and minimum of m12c. Significant cold spell now taking place up there.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Thanks for the update Carinthian.

I am somewhat optimistic that a delay to the melt will be seen this year and a shortened summer (based on little more than dubious signals from down south and some hopecasting). This may allow the recovery of some multi-year ice, though not as much was lost last year. Let's see shall we. Things are not good but Mother Nature has a habit of ironing out the spikes (being 2007).

Gray Wolf is correct to worry. The longer trend, even if we do get a couple of cool years now is one of warming and reduction of ice. Sceptics should not take signals of a superficial recovery as justification for their position.

im not sure i have seen any skeptics on here? we all know about multiyear sea ice, i think if anything the only thing that goes against the trend is ice concentration.. in theory a later ice season, warmer oceans due to more energy and a shorter ice growing season should result in a much lower ice concentration.. this year its not the case... i would have bet money on the lowest summer sea ice levels also having the lowest winter sea ice... but nature had other ideas.. sea ice thickness is worrying .. very worrying indeed.. but you know i have faith that the government/world is doing what it can to curb C02.. NOT! hey maybe someone could produce carbon dioxide catching technology... that would help reverse the trend for multiyear sea ice! or maybe we should do something to protect the ice up there? freeze the water? cover the ice?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sampling from Greenland's ice sheet would suggest we are covering the ice.........with soot!

The 'dirty coal' being piled into the Chinese power stations is not only responsible for their own yellow smogs , and Siberian yellow snow, but also albedo altering coverage for the high Arctic....

Ho Hum.

[oldsnowywizard]

Sampling from Greenland's ice sheet would suggest we are covering the ice.........with soot!

The 'dirty coal' being piled into the Chinese power stations is not only responsible for their own yellow smogs , and Siberian yellow snow, but also albedo altering coverage for the high Arctic....

Ho Hum.

yep thats not good. they used to cover hige ice bergs with soot or a black substance to help them to melt before heading fro the oil stations.

[Interitus]

hey maybe someone could produce carbon dioxide catching technology... that would help reverse the trend for multiyear sea ice! or maybe we should do something to protect the ice up there? freeze the water? cover the ice?

Farm the oceans. Fertilise the mid-ocean areas to produce algal blooms, they would take millions of tonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere as well as encouraging new food chains leading ultimately to more fish to eat.

[Optimus Prime]

Farm the oceans. Fertilise the mid-ocean areas to produce algal blooms, they would take millions of tonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere as well as encouraging new food chains leading ultimately to more fish to eat. :lol:

The problem in this sitution isn't C02 it's coal particles falling from the sky covering ice sheets. Black absorbs heat and so helps to warm the lining of the ice beneath it.

[cheeky_monkey]

The problem in this sitution isn't C02 it's coal particles falling from the sky covering ice sheets. Black absorbs heat and so helps to warm the lining of the ice beneath it.

hasnt this always been a problem?...remember pre 1980s europe and north america pumped out huge amounts of soot into the atmosphere, so cant see the difference between then and now?

[Gray-Wolf]

hasnt this always been a problem?...remember pre 1980s europe and north america pumped out huge amounts of soot into the atmosphere, so cant see the difference between then and now?

Then you haven't been paying attention to global temps over the same period, or stratospheric clarity, or ocean temps, or the 10c isotherm in the north Atlantic, or the drift of the Jet stream,or the amount of dark water over the pole during summer, or the extension of oceanic currents into the arctic.............

[cheeky_monkey]

Then you haven't been paying attention to global temps over the same period, or stratospheric clarity, or ocean temps, or the 10c isotherm in the north Atlantic, or the drift of the Jet stream,or the amount of dark water over the pole during summer, or the extension of oceanic currents into the arctic.............

im not talking about that im talking about the amount of soot deposited in the artic

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not talking about that I'm talking about the amount of soot deposited in the Arctic

I thought you distinctly said that you

" can't see the difference between then and now"

and I was merely outlining the major changes to the system over that period.......or did I read your post incorrectly then?

The other point being that we were well into this period of ablation back then, we were just not at the point where the internal decay was visible by it causing external collapse.

If all that we are witnessing today has been the product of only 10 years of warming induced melting then we are in far more trouble than I ever imagined...............