Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[carinthian]

Some good news to report from the North Barent. Coldest spell for several years now taking place. Frozen Longyearbyen Harbour currently recording -23 C in daylight. As a result a late freezing of the sea in the North Barent has lead to a ice coverage of 0.5 sq Km, about twice as much coverage than the same time last year. Encouraging signs , however, when put intp prospective, still someway short of what is normal.

C

[Interitus]

The problem in this sitution isn't C02 it's coal particles falling from the sky covering ice sheets. Black absorbs heat and so helps to warm the lining of the ice beneath it.

I was responding directly to removing CO2, cheers.

[Mr Sleet]

Bering sea doing very nicely thanks, still increasing- remarkable B)

from Cryosphere Today website.

Could be important for the melt ahead, if the ice stays for a longer time in the Bering sea, it could seriously reduce the melt in the East Siberian sea compared to last year.

Edited April 2, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[oldsnowywizard]

yes it could be important for some kind of delay.. i would note though that the chart seems to be about a week old.. looking at CT and MMAB concentration levels are around the 60-70% mark in this area currently..

NSIDC have provided an update as below.. to March

not too far of the median.

shows some positive anomolies.. but quite a few negatives

[Gray-Wolf]

Is C.T. having problems again? it would appear (from them) that the barrents sea shed 0.5 million sq km of ice yesterday?????

They also seem to show the beginning of this years melt so many of the questions being asked on here will be answered, some in a very few months. Hold on tight please I've a feeling this will be quite a ride........

[bluecon]

Actually the Canadian Arctic is still unusually cold and the ice is still increasing.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/CN_ST_Index.html

[Mr Sleet]

From Cryoshere Today website.

If anything, things are flattening out. Would need to be a pretty dramatic drop to beat last years minimum.

[oldsnowywizard]

From Cryoshere Today website.

If anything, things are flattening out. Would need to be a pretty dramatic drop to beat last years minimum.

bit too early to tell.. the melt at the moment will only be at the fringes of any ice as the cold air starts to receed back to the pole.. widespread melt of the thin ice is more than likely going to happen in the melt months.. ie June to Sep.. but granted according to CT things are doing better than last year, but then you would expect that as the ice concentration levels were higher this year compared to last.

[Gray-Wolf]

From Cryosphere Today website.

If anything, things are flattening out. Would need to be a pretty dramatic drop to beat last years minimum.

Then prepare for a 'pretty dramatic drop'.

The ice around the fringes will be gone in no time at all and then the inner mass (which is well fragmented already) will begin to drift and ablate in rapid order.

By the time we're into July ice levels will be down to the inner core and it will be then that the remnant multiyear will need watching.

Last year it jolted free of it's anchorage to the north of Greenland in late Aug/early sept and I suspect it will not have a great purchase on the sea bed this year leading to an even earlier 'drift'. If the multiyear were to drift far enough north then it would become trapped in the major clockwise circulation, that now appears increasingly common, and melt back further in late Aug early Sept.

The remnant multiyear would then pose the 'icebreaker' threat to the forming pack in early/mid winter as it drifted around the pole and would continue to disrupt the ice throughout the winter months leading to novel melt patterns next spring (Polynya's in the central ice mass).

[Stu_London]

Reading this thread is interesting and one side of the fence is going to end up with a fair bit of egg on their face come September

It is a dangerous policy to make statements about the future as if they were fact - does tend to lead to credability issues down the line.

[Mr Sleet]

Then prepare for a 'pretty dramatic drop'.

The ice around the fringes will be gone in no time at all and then the inner mass (which is well fragmented already) will begin to drift and ablate in rapid order.

By the time we're into July ice levels will be down to the inner core and it will be then that the remnant multiyear will need watching.

Last year it jolted free of it's anchorage to the north of Greenland in late Aug/early sept and I suspect it will not have a great purchase on the sea bed this year leading to an even earlier 'drift'. If the multiyear were to drift far enough north then it would become trapped in the major clockwise circulation, that now appears increasingly common, and melt back further in late Aug early Sept.

The remnant multiyear would then pose the 'icebreaker' threat to the forming pack in early/mid winter as it drifted around the pole and would continue to disrupt the ice throughout the winter months leading to novel melt patterns next spring (Polynya's in the central ice mass).

I will agree that's certainly possible, but I doubt it, we'll see.

[bluecon]

There is considerable new ice every year. Just with the extreme cold in the Arctic this winter huge new amounts have frozen and now the spring is arriving late. Unless the summer is unusually warm, the ice will not melt any more than usual. Would expect a high remaining amount of ice at the end of the summer.

[carinthian]

Solid ice pack now being pushed into NE coast of Greenland out of the Angara Basin. This is the feed for the fast ice floes along the coast of the Greenland Sea.

[carinthian]

This latest fantastic shot of the Hornsund in Southern Spitzbergen clearly shows the " Alpine shape mountain range ", the highest peak being over 1400 m, icebergs embedded in the frozen Hornsund, these being calved from the Hans Glacier, the foreward edge can be seen on this shot. The first week of April has recorded very cold temperatures throught Svalbard with mean temperatures nearly 10C below normal, the lengthening sun hours have certainly not brought a warm up yet.

C

Edited April 9, 2008 by carinthian

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This latest fantastic shot of the Hornsund in Southern Spitzbergen clearly shows the " Alpine shape mountain range ", the highest peak being over 1400 m, icebergs embedded in the frozen Hornsund, these being calved from the Hans Glacier, the foreward edge can be seen on this shot. The first week of April has recorded very cold temperatures throught Svalbard with mean temperatures nearly 10C below normal, the lengthening sun hours have certainly not brought a warm up yet.

C

Incredible shot that C. I also notice skiing and snow conditions are v good in Austria

BFTP

[oldsnowywizard]

update..

not doing badly compared with last year.. temps are widely normal in the arctic with Siberia colder than average.

according to the CT charts, remember these have a week lag..

Arctic - still mean

Bearing - on the rise and 400km above last years value

Baffin - mean and dropping but above last years value

greenland - below mean, roughly same as last year

barents - on the rise, way down on the mean though

kara - just shy of the mean up on last year

laptev - mean

siberian - mean

chuckchi - mean

beaufort- mean

canadian - mean

hudson - mean

so not too bad all things considered for sea ice extent.

850 temps set to warm up quite alot over the next week.. 2m temps oc temps are retreating to the pole.. so expect a downward spiral shortly.. of course how low will it go!

[carinthian]

Thanks for the up-date OSW.

A good alignment of the Polar ice edge in the Barent Sea stretching from South of Spitsbergen to Novaya Zemlya, also strong concentration to the ice sheet, with a push out from the Angara Basin near to the North Pole itself. Sought of formation of the ice coverage you would like to see in the Mid-Winter season. Much improved in the North Barent compared to last Spring due to the cold spell up there.

C

[SIG100]

Ice chart from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no)

[Gray-Wolf]

The largest remaining ice shelf in the northern hemisphere, the Ward Hunt ice shelf, has broken into 3 sections

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80415205350.htm

only 5 ice shelfs now remain in Canada and cover only 10% of their former area.

The last of the cold airs are now starting to give way to more temperate air masses as the suns influence increases across the pole. Watch out for the '100%' ice cover areas as they collapse into 100% open water over the next 4 months, something we will become increasingly familiar with as we approach a true 'ice free' pole over the summer months.

Be aware of the impacts on the fringing regions as the ice melts ,especially the tundra/tigra regions.

Edited April 17, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Stu_London]

The largest remaining ice shelf in the northern hemisphere, the Ward Hunt ice shelf, has broken into 3 sections

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80415205350.htm

only 5 ice shelfs now remain in Canada and cover only 10% of their former area.

The last of the cold airs are now starting to give way to more temperate air masses as the suns influence increases across the pole. Watch out for the '100%' ice cover areas as they collapse into 100% open water over the next 4 months, something we will become increasingly familiar with as we approach a true 'ice free' pole over the summer months.

Be aware of the impacts on the fringing regions as the ice melts ,especially the tundra/tigra regions.

Can I borrow your time machine?

I assume that is how you can see into the future with such clarity

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Stu, you still believe you exist in a linear version of time and as such you only believe in past and present (or instant past if you like).........you are as much in the future as you are in the present and past if you'd care to aclimatise yourself to it then maybe you could believe, with conviction, that the sun will rise tomorrow or that the ice will melt this summer or that your demise is not what/when you expect it to be.......

[Stu_London]

Sorry Stu, you still believe you exist in a linear version of time and as such you only believe in past and present (or instant past if you like).........you are as much in the future as you are in the present and past if you'd care to aclimatise yourself to it then maybe you could believe, with conviction, that the sun will rise tomorrow or that the ice will melt this summer or that your demise is not what/when you expect it to be.......

Cheers for the explanation - which landed on the wall about 6ft above my head

[ghrud]

Then prepare for a 'pretty dramatic drop'.

The ice around the fringes will be gone in no time at all and then the inner mass (which is well fragmented already) will begin to drift and ablate in rapid order.

By the time we're into July ice levels will be down to the inner core and it will be then that the remnant multiyear will need watching.

Last year it jolted free of it's anchorage to the north of Greenland in late Aug/early sept and I suspect it will not have a great purchase on the sea bed this year leading to an even earlier 'drift'. If the multiyear were to drift far enough north then it would become trapped in the major clockwise circulation, that now appears increasingly common, and melt back further in late Aug early Sept.

The remnant multiyear would then pose the 'icebreaker' threat to the forming pack in early/mid winter as it drifted around the pole and would continue to disrupt the ice throughout the winter months leading to novel melt patterns next spring (Polynya's in the central ice mass).

Somebody's going to end up with a lot of egg on their face... I can't wait 'til September to find out who!

[oldsnowywizard]

we just dont know what the future holds and there are so many variables which can have a positive or negative effect on any environment.. for instance a warm plume like last year kicked off a large amount of melt in the arctic, coupled with strong radiation, lots of clear skies, warmer ssts.. who knows what will happen this year. I want to believe that things wont be as bad as last year and the doom and gloom predicted by GW wont materialise, however we do have to face facts that there multiyear ice is becoming less and less each year.. so far the ice is not melting as quickly as last year which is a positive sign but how long will this continue...anyones guess.

i will say though can we stop with the snidey comments please people.. this is an interesting thread so lets not ruin it... that includes retaliation comments GW.

thanks

[The PIT]

Sorry Stu, you still believe you exist in a linear version of time and as such you only believe in past and present (or instant past if you like).........you are as much in the future as you are in the present and past if you'd care to aclimatise yourself to it then maybe you could believe, with conviction, that the sun will rise tomorrow or that the ice will melt this summer or that your demise is not what/when you expect it to be.......

Dunno what you're drinking but can I have some. Did you know that in a parallel Universe we're in a middle of an ice age. Scary that.

Edited April 17, 2008 by The PIT