Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[Stu_London]

i will say though can we stop with the snidey comments please people.. this is an interesting thread so lets not ruin it... that includes retaliation comments GW.

I know it's not always the case on this thread but there was no malice in the little exchange between GW and myself.

A bit of banter is OK, as long as it stays good natureded.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hear, hear Stu !

If the only 'jolly things ' on the thread are our bits of fun then surely no harm done!

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80417142503.htm

So we now have the mechanism that helps drive rapid ablation of ice sheets (both Greenland and Antarctica) and maybe our attention should also turn towards the Greenland ice sheet and it's recent rapid ablation as this does directly impact the globe with the jumps in sea level it can drive.

I do like OSW's post.....things won't be as bad as GW predicts......but seeing as the multiyear is almost done for expect more of it to go this year! Wasn't that what i was saying???

Seeing as so many folk are feeling reassured at the ice extent this year does anyone care to 'predict' how much of this 'single year ice' will make it through summer to become multiyear ice? The only acceptable sign of recovery will be ice retention over summer so who's willing to chance the 'eggy face' by telling us how much (%) increase in multiyear we can expect this year.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hear, hear Stu !

If the only 'jolly things ' on the thread are our bits of fun then surely no harm done!

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80417142503.htm

So we now have the mechanism that helps drive rapid ablation of ice sheets (both Greenland and Antarctica) and maybe our attention should also turn towards the Greenland ice sheet and it's recent rapid ablation as this does directly impact the globe with the jumps in sea level it can drive.

I do like OSW's post.....things won't be as bad as GW predicts......but seeing as the multiyear is almost done for expect more of it to go this year! Wasn't that what i was saying???

Seeing as so many folk are feeling reassured at the ice extent this year does anyone care to 'predict' how much of this 'single year ice' will make it through summer to become multiyear ice? The only acceptable sign of recovery will be ice retention over summer so who's willing to chance the 'eggy face' by telling us how much (%) increase in multiyear we can expect this year.

I predict there is no impending meltdown 'warming' disaster.

BFTP

Edited April 18, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mr Sleet]

Hear, hear Stu !

If the only 'jolly things ' on the thread are our bits of fun then surely no harm done!

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80417142503.htm

So we now have the mechanism that helps drive rapid ablation of ice sheets (both Greenland and Antarctica) and maybe our attention should also turn towards the Greenland ice sheet and it's recent rapid ablation as this does directly impact the globe with the jumps in sea level it can drive.

I do like OSW's post.....things won't be as bad as GW predicts......but seeing as the multiyear is almost done for expect more of it to go this year! Wasn't that what i was saying???

Seeing as so many folk are feeling reassured at the ice extent this year does anyone care to 'predict' how much of this 'single year ice' will make it through summer to become multiyear ice? The only acceptable sign of recovery will be ice retention over summer so who's willing to chance the 'eggy face' by telling us how much (%) increase in multiyear we can expect this year.

OK I'll play

I would say that the minimum extent will be up by between 1 and 2 million sq km on the 2007 minimum. I think you have said GW that you expect the whole lot to go -yes ?

[Gray-Wolf]

OK I'll play

I would say that the minimum extent will be up by between 1 and 2 million sq km on the 2007 minimum. I think you have said GW that you expect the whole lot to go -yes ?

Yup! ,plus more of the multiyear ice so another year of the minimum ice levels being broken.

I'd also expect to see the northern and northwest passage navigable this year as the drifted pack causing the multiyear to jam last summer off the Eurasian coast will have melted by August (seeing as this area has suffered large positive temp anoms all winter then the 'spring thaw' will have less work to do before setting about the chunks of multiyear beached in the shallows).

So, all this years winter ice melted and more 'multiyear' lost.

With yesterdays reports on Ward Hunt shelf I would not be surprised to see further fragmentation of the 5 remaining ice shelfs in NW Canada now they face open water.

Of course the other area of interest will be the losses from the Greenland ice sheet. Lets keep a watch on sea temp anoms down the west and southwest coast of Greenland picking out these 'meltwater pulses'.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Sun's out in Svalbard !!

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

[Mr Sleet]

Yup! ,plus more of the multiyear ice so another year of the minimum ice levels being broken.

I'd also expect to see the northern and northwest passage navigable this year as the drifted pack causing the multiyear to jam last summer off the Eurasian coast will have melted by August (seeing as this area has suffered large positive temp anoms all winter then the 'spring thaw' will have less work to do before setting about the chunks of multiyear beached in the shallows).

So, all this years winter ice melted and more 'multiyear' lost.

With yesterdays reports on Ward Hunt shelf I would not be surprised to see further fragmentation of the 5 remaining ice shelfs in NW Canada now they face open water.

Of course the other area of interest will be the losses from the Greenland ice sheet. Lets keep a watch on sea temp anoms down the west and southwest coast of Greenland picking out these 'meltwater pulses'.

OK GW- respect for sticking to your guns- you may be right but I don't think so. Anyone else like to make a prediction ?

Edited April 18, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[SteveB]

It would take something special to get to the sort of levels Gray-Wolf is expecting, but You never know. But I think by the time we see Winter set in again up there, we will be up on last years ice.

Edited April 18, 2008 by SteveB

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

If we don't get to last year's record low level it will put in question the validity of making predictions based solely on the age of the sea ice.

[Gray-Wolf]

If we don't get to last year's record low level it will put in question the validity of making predictions based solely on the age of the sea ice.

?!

You have to give us more than that A.F.!

Surely the only meaningful measure of how arctic ice is faring is the amount of ice that oversummers?

The talk of 'specific conditions' being the route cause of last years phenomenal melt is surely not the whole story.

As we see from hunt ward the impact of previous years melt has a great impact on the preceding years melt (as we will find with the northern passage this year) and, as such, areas impacted by last year record melt will respond accordingly this year.

I have no wish to see the changes that I see occuring.....but they are occuring.......are they not?

I'm sure we'll have chance to comment before the final September ice count but I feel I will be the one logging the record ablations that I see are now set to occur (giving the pathetic thickness of most of the single year ice this year).

Anyone else like to post their blow by blow prediction of the summer melt?.

Edited April 18, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Terminal Moraine]

Although single year ice must have survived to become multi-year ice at some time in the past, and much as I'd like to see it happen this year, based on the melting regime of recent years I don't think it will. It's rather like expecting a few cm of fluffy snow falling early on an April morning to survive until the following day.

I think once the sun rises a little higher and the break up begins, it will be rapid and widespread and by August we will be looking at further erosion of the multi-year ice.

More than happy to be proved wrong though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Arctic Canada has had a seriously cold winter and a long one yet the ice has fractured in three places. It is nothing to do with AGW, the seas are warming from below, the ice is melting from below...because it didn't melt over winter. This is predictable if not sudden. Every major global cooling event has been preceded by the arctic ice breakdown. This one will be no different IMO. On that basis we could see rapid break-up...its too close to call IMO but I'll go for an almost match to last year.

BFTP

Edited April 19, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[oldsnowywizard]

although sea ice extent is doing better than last year, i feel that come August values will be not too far off last years min.. it will be interesting to see what the factors will be though.. ie warm oceans, radiation etc? maybe there is a underwater heated pipe that the oil companies have put there so they can start drilling..who knows? GW agreed it will be very worrying if Greenland ice melts more and yes it will be interesting to see what the impact of this will be.. will it spark a colder winter for us? will it be the feedback mechanism needed to restore ice.. if only for a temprary 100 years?

[len]

Interesting Tongue of Ice in the Atlantic SE of Newfoundland. As far South as The Bay of Biscay!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Len

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtim...155000.250m.jpg

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtim...154501.250m.jpg

The above images (15:40 and 15:45 yesterday) show the are of the 'ice tongue' Len and ,as far as I can gauge, it's pretty slushy, fragmented pack with well rounded bergs (eroded).

Makes you wonder how far the pack would extend if we didn't have the thermal protection we enjoy.

[oldsnowywizard]

GW is there a key somewhere which shows the makeup of the ice please? i cant tell whats ice and whats cloud!

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'key' is familiarising yourself with the images!

Honest, it doesn't take too long looking at various latitudes to 'get your eye in' on the sort of clouds you encounter there. Anything you are unsure of it's safer to call cloud and discount that portion of the image. Their obviously is plenty more to study and find of interest though.

Have fun.

Ian.

[carinthian]

Great shot of reflection of the low sunlight across the Hornsund as we enter the period of the long shadows. Also note the breakaway ice bergs from the Hansbreen Glacier crashing into the fjiord. This web-cam location must be one of the best in the world. What a wonderful setting.

C

[Polar Continental]

Great shot of reflection of the low sunlight across the Hornsund as we enter the period of the long shadows. Also note the breakaway ice bergs from the Hansbreen Glacier crashing into the fjiord. This web-cam location must be one of the best in the world. What a wonderful setting.

C

Morning carinthian, yes a that’s a very nice picture of nature left alone after being frozen in time, just waking up. Still a beautiful unspoiled wilderness, lets hope it stays that way for ever.

Paul

[oldsnowywizard]

here we go...

where does it stop nobody knows...

[trevw]

here we go...

where does it stop nobody knows...

I don't doubt the ice is reducing and that may be an accurate representation but CT often has glitches and on trying to view the 30 day animation it gets stuck towards the end... could there be data issues?

Edited April 23, 2008 by trevw

[Mr Sleet]

here we go...

where does it stop nobody knows...

Gray Wolf knows

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some warm air passing right through the Arctic Circle at the moment from north Asia- if you look closely this anomalously warm air spreads to Svalbard from a northerly! Could be some early melting and +10-15C anomalies up there over the coming week, though it does stay reasonably cool around the western sector.

[reef]

Some warm air passing right through the Arctic Circle at the moment from north Asia- if you look closely this anomalously warm air spreads to Svalbard from a northerly! Could be some early melting and +10-15C anomalies up there over the coming week, though it does stay reasonably cool around the western sector.

Indeed, plus the amount of cold air is looking a tad on the unhealthy side compared to previous years. Almost all of the Arctic Ocean looks to have a surface temperature above -15C by May 1st, which when coupled with a massive high pressure centred over the pole, could lead to some quite substantial early melting.

Cold Air looking very Anaemic:

High pressure over the pole, so lots of sunshine to cause melting:

The next few weeks are going to be a real tester. Could we see the first year ice disappear early, allowing the obliteration of more multi-year ice?

[Gray-Wolf]

Indeed, plus the amount of cold air is looking a tad on the unhealthy side compared to previous years. Almost all of the Arctic Ocean looks to have a surface temperature above -15C by May 1st, which when coupled with a massive high pressure centred over the pole, could lead to some quite substantial early melting.

Cold Air looking very Anaemic:

High pressure over the pole, so lots of sunshine to cause melting:

The next few weeks are going to be a real tester. Could we see the first year ice disappear early, allowing the obliteration of more multi-year ice?

The large areas of thin 'single year ice' (less than 1m) will shatter and mush very swiftly I imagine but the area to watch is the pack to the north of alaska as if this shatters before June the there will be a major 'flush out' of the single year ice (as we saw last year) and the potential for the multiyear ice, to the north of Greenland, drifting poleward (and clockwise) into more 'corrosive' conditions speeding it's demise.

As I've oft said, once clear of the protective micro climate to the north of Greenland the multiyear ice will fail as quickly as all the other unprotected multiyear pack that has failed since 1979.