Long Range summer forecast

[Sue Bates]

So, the Met Office forecast a wet and warm summer - do you think we will now get a heatwave that lasts from May to October????? :lol:

[azores92]

So, the Met Office forecast a wet and warm summer - do you think we will now get a heatwave that lasts from May to October????? :lol:

quite unlikely, i believe a heatwave is over 30 something degrees celsius for an extended period of time? haha, one website suggests a very wet autumn is on the way, and another suggests that the next winter is going to be very snowy!! one has to laugh at such a prediction nowadays.

[Potent Gust]

To give the Meto there due there recent long range seasonal forcasts have not been too bad. I am hoping for a nice summer but do not want many hot and humid days over 30c. I hate humid weather.

[azores92]

To give the Meto there due there recent long range seasonal forcasts have not been too bad. I am hoping for a nice summer but do not want many hot and humid days over 30c. I hate humid weather.

tell me about it. places like kinshasa and kalimantan are normally humid.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i blamed the non existant summer of 2007 on the perfect April. This april looks dismal dull and cool, maybe a summer this year? this dismal april looming may not be bad in the long term/summer prospects

[azores92]

i blamed the non existant summer of 2007 on the perfect April. This april looks dismal dull and cool, maybe a summer this year? this dismal april looming may not be bad in the long term/summer prospects

sadly mark that aint the way it works, but its always worth dreaming i suppose. mind you, shouldnt we be getting more droughts instead of wet summers in the future?

[damianslaw]

A fairly 'safe' forecast by the Met office I feel, in recent years they have been quite bullish in their prediction of very warm conditions, whereas at this early stage they are erring on caution by saying a bit above average, i think last year has probably made them a lot less bullish this year when it comes to temperatures. Last year has probably influenced them a great deal, particularly with regard to their above average rainfall prediction.

Overall the prognosis for the summer matches what would be expected in the this age of global warming i.e. warmer and wetter conditions.

It sounds to me that we could be seeing alot of 'tropical maritime' air over the country with the azores high not really ridging much over the country but close enough to ensure that we see more of a south westerly airstream. Personally, such a scenario is not something I wish to relish as it will mean quite humid conditions and often hazy murky weather particularly in the west and on hills - not great for summer walking in our hills and mountains. But we will have to see. Personally i would like a repeat of summer 2005 which was warm generally but also not too humid. Humidity is the one thing about the summer that I dislike.

[sundog]

A fairly 'safe' forecast by the Met office I feel, in recent years they have been quite bullish in their prediction of very warm conditions, whereas at this early stage they are erring on caution by saying a bit above average, i think last year has probably made them a lot less bullish this year when it comes to temperatures. Last year has probably influenced them a great deal, particularly with regard to their above average rainfall prediction.

Overall the prognosis for the summer matches what would be expected in the this age of global warming i.e. warmer and wetter conditions.

It sounds to me that we could be seeing alot of 'tropical maritime' air over the country with the azores high not really ridging much over the country but close enough to ensure that we see more of a south westerly airstream. Personally, such a scenario is not something I wish to relish as it will mean quite humid conditions and often hazy murky weather particularly in the west and on hills - not great for summer walking in our hills and mountains. But we will have to see. Personally i would like a repeat of summer 2005 which was warm generally but also not too humid. Humidity is the one thing about the summer that I dislike.

I cant stand humidity myself,dont like the heat too much either. Heat and humidity combined and christ does that put me in bad form. A summer like 2005 would be ok though.

[North-Easterly Blast]

i blamed the non existant summer of 2007 on the perfect April. This april looks dismal dull and cool, maybe a summer this year? this dismal april looming may not be bad in the long term/summer prospects

Many may say that summer 2007 was non-existent, OK it was exceptionally wet especially in June and July, but August wasn't a wet month overall, and in actual fact although summer 2007 was cooler than many recent years and overall the coolest since 1998, it overall was only marginally below the 1961-90 average at 15.23*C, hardly cool is it. To classify a truly cool summer it really needs a CET below 15*C. I would call a summer like 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 and even 1993 cool, as they saw CETs less than 15*C. Whereas summer 2007 was only just below average rather than truly cool.

The Met Office summer forecast has been issued and it points towards a summer warmer and wetter than average, something similar to summer 2004 perhaps it is leaning to? It points out that a repeat of the exceptional rainfall of last year's summer is unlikely, but it doesen't mention at all if they think that there is any chance of a repeat of the exceptional heatwave of the type that occurred in 2003 and 2006. When two of the five hottest summers on record have occurred in the last five years they should certainly take into account if there is any chance of anything similar this year.

[nanu]

So, the Met Office forecast a wet and warm summer - do you think we will now get a heatwave that lasts from May to October?????

And didnt they say that last summers was going to be hottest summer ever.. or something along those lines?

And er.. looked what happened.

So people expect it to be a summer to remember of long hot days for this one.

[azores92]

And didnt they say that last summers was going to be hottest summer ever.. or something along those lines?

And er.. looked what happened.

So people expect it to be a summer to remember of long hot days for this one.

a repeat of 2003 or 2006 looks unlikely. all that is said in their recent forecast is that a summer close to average is likely. i do think the fact that la nina is fully in charge may bias towards a zonal blocking, and may point the jetstream over us again, which is feared by many met office forecasters, thus giving another very wet summer.

[johnholmes]

And didnt they say that last summers was going to be hottest summer ever.. or something along those lines?

nope

yet another misquote

this is the link to read what was actually printed by them

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070411.html

this is part of their summing up at the end of the summer

The UK mean summer temperature was 14.1 °C which is the same as the 1971-2000 average. The UK average daily maximum temperature was just below average, whilst average daily minimum temperatures were just above average. It was the coolest UK summer since 1998.

so not the same as your quote by any means and not as warm as they predicted.

sorry to be pedantic but I always prefer to use the actual quotes rather than give a personal summation which can quite often be wide of the actual weather experienced.

[J07]

I cant stand humidity myself,dont like the heat too much either. Heat and humidity combined and christ does that put me in bad form. A summer like 2005 would be ok though.

Yes, I don't think heat + humidity combined is too healthy either. A very large proportion of the world's population live in such climates though so maybe the rest of us are just soft!

One good thing about humid summer days is the balmy evenings you tend to enjoy

[Climate Man]

To give the Meto there due there recent long range seasonal forcasts have not been too bad. I am hoping for a nice summer but do not want many hot and humid days over 30c. I hate humid weather.

They forecast record breaking heat for last summer!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the only guaranteed forecast for summer 08 is that 25th June- 6th July will be the wettest spell esp in SE england

[Timmead]

They forecast record breaking heat for last summer!

How did you manage to infer that? It seems to me as though they have little clue; their "safe" forecast doesn't actually reveal much as far as I can tell.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ask any four people in a room what they think the "summer" will be like and there answer will be about as reliable as the prediction from the MetOfifice :o Its anyones guess! Warm ,well yes but its a safe bet that the summer will be Warm on one or two occasions and above average rainfall is a little more tricky to forecast, but im sure somewhere it will be above average. Im not knocking the Metoffice , but I do feel lrf are always open to criticism, and by putting lrf in the for front of the media ,your gonna get it! :o

[johnholmes]

They forecast record breaking heat for last summer!

please see my post above with the actual version available to read.

why oh why must people misquote.

a 1 in 8 chance or put the other way round 7 out of 8 chances of NOT getting heat!

[Timmead]

please see my post above with the actual version available to read.

why oh why must people misquote.

a 1 in 8 chance or put the other way round 7 out of 8 chances of NOT getting heat!

Couldn't agree with you more; it seems people can read something then completely turn it on its head when they try to interpret it.

[Nick H]

I do find these forecasts to be of limited use. For example, this year's summer forecast includes the assessment "The risk of exceptional rainfall, as seen last summer, is assessed as very low at this stage". This may well be a legitimate predicition but it actually adds very little value given that last summer was the wettest since 1912.

[dogs32]

Climate man...I also read the opposite!!!

Saying this summer will be nothing different.

In otherwords wet but warm..No drought,No floods, and No High record temps....Just an average summer.

So i think its take your pick who you wont to follow or believe

[Roger J Smith]

I think my forecast would be about the same in general terms. There is a lot of sea ice in the Newfoundland sector this year, which will persist to June at least, so I can't see the flow over the Atlantic rising too quickly, but with that western Atlantic trough anchored, the flow will also have to be zonal. With energy peaks still overlapping like last summer to some extent, it may turn out rather like last summer for rainfall. That's where I might make a distinction from the met office forecast, temps are likely to be near normal June and July, perhaps a bit warmer than normal August, but rainfall is likely to be above normal again, with some episodes of flooding rainfall. This time I don't see it coming from deep troughing and lows to the south, but stalled frontal systems and heavy thunderstorm rains. Probably not a really good summer, but there are some index values suggesting a turn to hot/dry later on, so would suggest August the better choice for a holiday.

[Gavin P]

Roger, do you expect the sea ice around New Foundland to lead to cooling in the north-east Atlantic as it melts next month?

[Roger J Smith]

No, I don't expect that, for two reasons. The sea ice is more extensive especially in the eastern offshore sections, it won't melt very quickly, the seasonal lag tends to be quite long and most of this ice will break up only in June. But it won't have a widespread cooling effect on the N Atlantic, what I was looking for was that the sea ice would anchor a persistent trough near 40-50 W. That could actually feed back as warmer SST values east of about 30 W but I think the overall effect will be to flatten the May and June flow patterns and keep the jet from wandering too far north or south over the central Atlantic. That combined with some other unrelated factors made me speculate that it would remain near average and wet for the British Isles at least in the first half of the summer. It could improve further on because the same "other factors" are showing a warming ridge developing over western Europe in August and September. So it may turn out to be a late but warm summer period then.

[Evening thunder]

well I dont mind a wet summer as long as we get some decent thunderstorms! last year i didnt see a single flash of lightning between february and november! was the worst year for thunderstorms i can remember.

as in most years i think well get some decent spells of weather at times even if it is a poor summer overall.