Typhoon Neoguri

[Somerset Squall]

Interestingly, the forecast track keeps moving eastwards. At the beginning of the week, it looked like Neoguri would make scrape up the west coast of Hainan Island but now it looks like the east coast will be worst affected.

Another image of Neoguri:

[Mesosphere]

Reason for issue

* latest warning for tropical cyclone Neoguri

* tropical disturbance information

Next bulletin

* after 2100 GMT on 17 April 2008

although earlier bulletins may be issued should significant developments occur

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

TYPHOON Neoguri / 02W

Warning 15 at 1500 GMT

Position 16.6N 111.9E

Location 195 miles SE of Hainan Island, China

Movement NNW at 7 knots

Maximum sustained winds 85 knots

Maximum gusts 105 knots

Next update from JTWC at 2100 GMT

Neoguri has peaked in intensity and has started to lose some of its strength due to worsening atmospheric conditions. The storm will make landfall in the extreme east of Hainan Island in 24 hours' time, with landfall in mainland China 12 hours later. Full dissipation is expected in 3 days' time.

HAZARD SUMMARY

Maximum significant wave height 24 feet

Tropical storm force winds occur within 95 to 105 miles of the centre

Hurricane (typhoon) strength winds occur within 35 miles of the centre

CHINESE WARNINGS

The ORANGE alert has been raised by the CMO.

Emergency response III has been initiated.

Neoguri is expected to make landfall on Hainan between Sanya and Wenchang

Residents are advised not to go to sea.

Winds are expected between force 7 and 9, but near force 12 in the proximity of the centre of the storm.

[kold weather]

Well just a quick post but looks like Neoguri has really strengthened again, northern eyewall has exploded back into life with nice deep convection and a good sharp looking eye. Offical forecasts now put this at 95kts and this time I totally agree with putting this system that high as it actually does look pretty impressive at this moment, looks like a fairly small eye as well which is never a good thing though with such a small system any downturn in atmsopheric conditions will still mean a very quick weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, certainly looks a lot better than it did this afternoon. Quite a small typhoon so as you say Neoguri will be sensitive to changes in conditions, cooler waters are not far away aswell as an increase in vertical wind shear. Good outflow is probably what is really helping it right now but as the shear increases then outflow is expected to be restricted which should accelerate the weakening. JTWC calls for dissipation over China by 72hrs. Still, Hainan Island (particularly the east) will be in for a rough ride over the next 48hrs.

[Cookie]

getting closer to land

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Neoguri has began to weaken, and is now at 80kts. The eye has become cloud filled though the typhoon still has good shape. Neoguri is located east of Hainan Island and as a consequence is bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the east of the island (looks like the western half will largely escape). The forecast hasn't changed much apart from the fact that the track has shifted a little eastwards again. Still expected to weaken under unfavourable conditions of stronger shear and low sea temps and eventually dissipate over Southern China over the next couple days.

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Just another quick post, looks like the eyewall struck Hainan earlier today, probably giving some good winds though interestingly not much in the way of damage has been reported so far that I know off anyway...

Neoguri now weakening very quickly, the eye has gone and the eyewall has become very disorganised, though probably still about in the northern quadrant where the deep convection is present. Still this may not even be a typhoon by the time it makes its next target, I'd guess right now its at 65kts and winding down as we speak.

[Cookie]

still a good start though

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Like 27P, Neoguri is also on it's last legs. Intensity has been reduced to 45kts as Neoguri begins to move inland across Southern China, very near Hong Kong. Shear is also disrupting Neoguri's circulation which has become broad and increasingly ill defined. Convection is also waning due to cool waters and now land interaction. Dissipation is expected within the next 24hrs.

Still, a nice storm to start the 2008 West Pacific season!

[Cookie]

yup

I agree

Storm Alert issued at 19 Apr, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Macau

probability for TS is 45% currently

[Cookie]

Final warning for this one

storm Alert issued at 19 Apr, 2008 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for TS is 85% currently

Macau

probability for TS is 70% currently

Hong Kong

probability for TS is 60% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

According to wiki, 3 people have died and 40 are missing due to Neoguri. Neoguri was also the earliest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in China in a season:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Neoguri_%282008%29

More effects from Neoguri:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6395742.html

[Cookie]

thats never good to here