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MetO to call a positive / negative NAO for winter 2008-09?


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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
I'll be calling for a mild winter. Watch the Meto take the same route.

im calling for slightly above temperatures with well above average rainfall, probably notable in january, which i think will be the mildest and wettest month like last year. i think some more snow than last winter received is on the cards for all areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Very early thoughts are close to average but on the milder side. La Nina domination [not exclusive though] cycle is upon us and a gradual change is arriving. I think widespread arctic outbreaks again like last winter but for the usual suspects, but the cold will spread out a bit more. Lets see what the rest of Spring and summer brings and let's see what the SSTs do...they seem to be in stationary mode at present so wouldn't be surprised if Meto call similar to last winter.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
The longer time goes on with mild winters year after year and given the almost complete lack of UK wide cold outbreaks since 1996 and the rarity of severe cold spells since 1988, it is looking like an almost permanent change has occurred to the weather patterns that affect the UK and the rest of Europe.

In terms of climatological epochs, no one can say there has been a permanent change not after 20 years.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Very early thoughts are close to average but on the milder side. La Nina domination [not exclusive though] cycle is upon us and a gradual change is arriving. I think widespread arctic outbreaks again like last winter but for the usual suspects, but the cold will spread out a bit more. Lets see what the rest of Spring and summer brings and let's see what the SSTs do...they seem to be in stationary mode at present so wouldn't be surprised if Meto call similar to last winter.

BFTP

The MetO will no doubt say another mild winter ahead and then it'll all go belly up as usual :)

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
The MetO will no doubt say another mild winter ahead and then it'll all go belly up as usual ;)

bftp an interesting take there. a high abundance of high pressure on that map though. however, maybe we will be lucky this year :) .

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
What will the meto think of this then

sst_anom.gif

BFTP

That to me looks like a very negative NAO signiture!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
That to me looks like a very negative NAO signiture!!

That's what I was thinking! Especially good when you take in account the forecasts from CPC who expect La Nina to weaken to weak/neutral come winter. Be interesting to know what the UKMO expect ENSO conditions to be as they weren't far off for last winter!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

simple just look on their web site

The summer forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. on 29 May 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
simple just look on their web site

The summer forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. on 29 May 2008.

I believe he meant the winter NAO outlook, and i believe that is released in August, though i would advise you to look in the seasonal archive for last years thread and see when it was released then.

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

The last couple of years, the early NAO winter prediction has been released in July, so if we follow the same pattern we won't have long to wait!

The main forecast usually comes out in September when they have the computer models data to go with.

Oh, and I agree. The Atlantic is looking increasingly well set up for a negative NAO next winter - But thats only one part of the story.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
The last couple of years, the early NAO winter prediction has been released in July, so if we follow the same pattern we won't have long to wait!

The main forecast usually comes out in September when they have the computer models data to go with.

Oh, and I agree. The Atlantic is looking increasingly well set up for a negative NAO next winter - But thats only one part of the story.

haha. i wish for everyones sake we get a cold and well precipitated(SNOW) winter ahead of us, but the way things have been in recent years, we shall be lucky to see any of the white stuff. however, we are due a very good winter after last years dreadful one.

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Oh, and I agree. The Atlantic is looking increasingly well set up for a negative NAO next winter - But thats only one part of the story.

Next winter as in 2009 or the coming winter ??

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Response from the metoffice re this.

Fred,

Thanks for your enquiry. We do indeed have a first outlook based on May

SST but it'll take a while for the data to arrive and be processed. It

will be made available from late June.

Best regards

Adam Scaife

So there we have it....about 3-4 weeks for their first analysis.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Response from the metoffice re this.

Fred,

Thanks for your enquiry. We do indeed have a first outlook based on May

SST but it'll take a while for the data to arrive and be processed. It

will be made available from late June.

Best regards

Adam Scaife

So there we have it....about 3-4 weeks for their first analysis.

BFTP

can you give any indications as to what it might say? probably another mild zonal winter again. im so bored of it, i really hope for everyones sake its a good un

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
can you give any indications as to what it might say? probably another mild zonal winter again. im so bored of it, i really hope for everyones sake its a good un

No indication from them. I'm no expert in this field but if you look at previous posts by some members the SST set up looks favourable for -ve NAO.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
No indication from them. I'm no expert in this field but if you look at previous posts by some members the SST set up looks favourable for -ve NAO.

BFTP

thanks bftp. it doesnt look great from the newest met office models released in the last day or so, as most of north west europe is swamped by orange, instead of blue, favouring above average rainfall and temperatures. however its still so far away, we cant be judging by those models. in 2005, the coldest winter the uk has had in the last 5 years or so, they were also leaning towards a warmer outcome. im sure it'll change. fingers crossed everyone!

Edited by azores92
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

The Met Office seasonal model only goes up to October. From what I can see it currently shows an average and wetter than normal summer. An average and wet September. And a warm and dry October.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso...terce_cat2.html

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
The Met Office seasonal model only goes up to October. From what I can see it currently shows an average and wetter than normal summer. An average and wet September. And a warm and dry October.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso...terce_cat2.html

yes but its gonna be hard to back away from a huge swamp of orange in time for christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
The Met Office seasonal model only goes up to October. From what I can see it currently shows an average and wetter than normal summer. An average and wet September. And a warm and dry October.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso...terce_cat2.html

I'm sure I've read postings on here claiming that a cold wet September followed by a warm dry October correlates with colder following winters. I can't see why this would be the case and what (if any) science or research there is to substantiate the theory, maybe someone else can explain...

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, I've seen plenty of posts on this as well. There may be a slight correlation with regards recent years, but chances are you won't find a correlation if you take the entire record.

The cold wet September, warm dry October theory worked very well prior to the cold 1995/96 winter, but not, for example, prior to that of 1981/82 with October 1981 having been very cool and wet, although quite sunny.

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