Virtual Storm Chase 4

[Paul Sherman]

From latest Model runs have gone against earlier thoughts about W Kansas so am going to Pick Wichita Falls (Tx) as my Chase Target for today, think a few Supercells will spin up in SW Kansas today but the Supercell parameters look like a catbon copy of 2 weeks ago in the same area Breckenridge/ W Falls area.

Paul S

[NL]

Starting my virtual chase in Tulia, Texas. Favourable cape and Li's looking very good, capping looks evident which but should break late afternoon hopefully allowing supercell development, just hope it all comes to play all at the right time.

[NL]

First of the Mesoscale discussions.. elevated thunderstorms for parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0696.html

[Paul Sherman]

As me and Nick both thought a few days ago, SPC Have Upgraded todays potential to MODERATE Risk, looking good for NW Texas & South Western Oklahoma in the same area as a few weeks back, Witchita Falls looking well placed AGAIN!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0741 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM

WESTERN NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND

CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/ORE COAST

WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INLAND INTO THE GREAT

BASIN. ANOTHER STRONG FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET

OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A RATHER

ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT.

...TX/OK/KS TODAY...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS

BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WEST TX. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM

ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAPPING INVERSION AND LEAD TO

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING FROM THE EASTERN TX

PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA/MAF/OUN/DDC SHOW

VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT CAPE VALUES /700-500MB

LR OF 8-9 C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG/. VERY FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 696 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS TX

PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK TODAY...LEAVING AREAS FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO

SOUTH CENTRAL OK RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN COVERED BY DENSE CIRRUS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL STILL SEE

SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON

MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THROUGH 00Z

AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ALONG WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY

AXIS AND IN EXIT REGION OF COMPACT UPPER JET...ROUGHLY WEST OF

ABI/SJT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH

THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TRACK/DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OK/NORTH

TX. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE VERY

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. MODEL GUIDANCE

VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING LOW LEVEL RESPONSE OF WIND FIELDS TO

APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL

BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT BY EARLY EVENING

OVER MODERATE RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS

OK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL

INTO THE NIGHT.

Paul S

[Hilton]

We're heading down to Wichita Falls in about an hour and will head west from there once its more obvious where the bulge will end up being (2 model runs in a row saying the same thing would be useful!).

[NL]

New MD concerning Tornado watch likely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0698.html

Good luck Hilton...! <_<

[NL]

TVS on that cell now approaching Nicks position of Snyder Texas.

[Nick F]

TVS on that cell now approaching Nicks position of Snyder Texas.

Lol, didn't pick my target for things to kick-off quite so early! Seems to be the warm front moving north:

... dryline to arrive much later around 00z.

MODERATE risk issued 1616UTC:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1116 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN OK/NWRN TX

INTO CENTRAL OK/N-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN

PLAINS/KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LATE MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH

EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND ANOTHER SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT

BASIN. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE

PERIOD. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH

PRIMARY FRONT STALLED FROM IND SWWD INTO W-CENTRAL TX...WITH

ADDITIONAL WARM FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTING FROM

CENTRAL OK SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO

REMAIN PRONOUNCED TODAY FROM DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE SD/NE/WY

TRI-STATE REGION SWD INTO WRN TX.

...SRN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

OVERALL SETUP IS QUITE MESSY THIS MORNING AS DEEP LIFTING IS ALREADY

SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN TX INTO

CENTRAL KS. WITH MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING NEWD ...CAP WILL

CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION.

WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY

SUPPORT PRIMARY MODE OF MULTICELLS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...FROM

NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK/CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. APPEARS

HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...WILL BE MOST COMMON

SEVERE EVENT TODAY AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND DEEP LIFT/COOLING

ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF RESIDUAL

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL OK TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX WITH THREAT

INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ SHIFTS ACROSS THIS

REGION.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST AND MORE FAVORABLY SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED

SUPERCELLS ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...LIKELY

EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL/SWRN TX ENEWD TOWARDS SWRN OK/N-CENTRAL TX

INTO THE EVENING. WITH INCREASING SLY LLJ LATE TODAY AND AXIS OF

STRONGEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED OVER WRN-NWRN

TX...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH

MORE ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING NEWD DURING THE EVENING

INTO OK AS SHEAR INCREASES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

TODAY...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW

POINTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THIS REGION. STRONG IMPULSE NOW

OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING

AS IT EJECTS NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS SHOULD

BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED...HIGH

BASED-SUPERCELLS...DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GIVEN VERY

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES BEFORE UPDRAFTS

WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AFTER DARK.

[Paul Sherman]

- All the Hallmarks of a HIGH Risk Tomorrow

<_<

[Paul Sherman]

Actually after just looking through most of the Models this is a bit of a Patchy Moderate Risk, and SPC Still uncertain wether conditions will be favourable for even Tornadoes, one to watch!

Paul S

[Nick F]

Well, the cap didn't hold for long today, already torando watches for Wern TX and also Wern KS/NE an Ern CO:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 219

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL

400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

MIDLAND TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...

DISCUSSION...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE INCREASING WITH APPROACH OF

MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2500 J/KG...SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. TORNADOS ALONG

WITH VERY LARGE HAIL COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

...HALES

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 220

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO

PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS

LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR COLORADO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ALONG W EDGE OF STRONG SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE

HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE

REMAINING CINH. WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH FROM CENTRAL

ROCKIES...SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE

FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM VICINITY CO/KS BORDER

NWD INTO NEB. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST

UNSTABLE SLY FLOW BY EVENING WITH THREAT OF NOT ONLY LARGE HAIL BUT

TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.

[Paul Sherman]

Nice Looking Tornado Warned Supercell just passed Snyder, the Hook just passed to the South of Town!

EDIT: Tornado spotted by Spotternetwork south of Snyder with multiple Touchdowns, also Tornado on same storm near Raton!

[Nick F]

Yep, kicking off early today, only 3.15pm ...

Can see the dryline outwest near Seminole kicking off storms along the TX/NM border now.

One of the two nado warnings near my target:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

256 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL SCURRY COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR UNION...OR

NEAR SNYDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

RURAL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF SNYDER

CENTRAL SCURRY COUNTY...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

WFUS54 KSJT 231955

TORSJT

TXC151-253-232045-

/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0043.080423T1955Z-080423T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHERN FISHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 252 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES

SOUTH OF ROTAN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF HAMLIN...MOVING EAST AT

30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

ROBY BY 300 PM CDT...

MCCAULLEY BY 320 PM CDT...

HITSON BY 325 PM CDT...

HAMLIN BY 330 PM CDT...

[NL]

Here's the latest visible satellite image with IR overlay.

[Paul Sherman]

http://severestudios.com/

Lets see who the lucky beggars are Chasing today!

[NL]

http://severestudios.com/

Lets see who the lucky beggars are Chasing today!

Was watchin D. Drummond earlier but wasnt on any storms yet, but Verne Carlson was on one but not very impressive was embedded storm quite messy not very well structured but that was much earlier hoping they get on some tornadic cells later .

If you go on http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php you can find who's where and it even has a NEXRAD overlay..!!

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

There have been 1 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
1954 	UNK 	4 S ROTAN 	FISHER 	TX 	32.8 	-100.46 	(SJT)

[Nick F]

Dave Drummond chasing storm NW of Big Spring, live feed here:

http://www.tornadovideos.net/index.cfm/do/s.LiveTracker

Few screen grabs of the storm's base from the feed, some nice lowerings in there:

[Paul Sherman]

Nick

Over on ST They are reporting a Cone Tornado live on DD Webcam :blink:

[Nick F]

Stove Pipe in Dawson County (near Lamesa) ... great chase country to be following these storms - nice and flat and no trees.

[Paul Sherman]

Watching D Drummond on Full screen Windows Media Player Live, he is still in a great position, very low base on this Storm

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

Abilene could get a direct hit here, looks like F3-4 potential from radar imagery (as of 2120z storm about 20-30 miles west of Abilene). North side of the city certainly needs tornado warning.

[Nick F]

very low base on this Storm

Paul S

Yes, very low LCLs today, characteristic of the High Plains with a shallow warm moist airmass near the surface but colder air not far above - colder air aloft closer to the surface than it is further east/southeast at lower elevations.

[Gorky]

Just got in and it seems things are really cranking. This cell looks an absolute beast.

[Paul Sherman]

I feel like I have been a Passenger in David Drummonds car all evening, have not lost the stream once and already seen a Tornado. :blink:

Paul S

Here comes the Base This is quality