Tropical Cyclone Rosie

[Somerset Squall]

The South Indian Ocean hasn't given up yet and has spawned a late tropical cyclone near Christmas Island. Intensification is forecasted due to low shear and good outflow. Sea temps are high but will taper off over the next few days as the new cyclone moves eastwards then southwards, which will weaken the cyclone beyond 48hrs. 28S will scrape very near to Christmas Island where it may bring heavy rains and strong winds. Current track forecasts do not bring 28S near the coast of Australia but things could change. One to be watched by Christmas Island anyway.

Satellite image of 28S:

Edited April 21, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

28S has strengthened to 40kts. The forecast is similar to before but only modest strengthening is predicted as 28S will soon dip southwards in response to a building steering ridge to the east which will send the cyclone into very high shear. JTWC are calling a peak of 45kts, though if 28S can make the most of the good conditions it's in now it's possible it may peak a little stronger in my opinion as I think it looks in pretty good shape right now.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 21 Apr, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm 28S is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cove (10.4 S, 105.7 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert Cookie.

Tropical Cyclone 28S has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Rosie. JTWC and BOM are conflicting at the moment with BOM unusually pitching a higher intensity than the JTWC. BOM puts Rosie at 50kts, noting that there was a brief appearance of an eye feature earlier today, wheras JTWC have gone for a more conservative 45kts saying that nearby shear is already beginning to hinder development. What both agencies agree on is weakening from this point onwards as Rosie dips southwards into an area of very strong shear to the south, which will tear Rosie apart. Rosie is now moving away from Christmas Island so the heaviest rains and strongest winds should be easing now.

[kold weather]

Looks like Rosie is already starting to be sheared from the north at the moment. Convection being pushed to the southern side of the LLCC, which compared with 12hrs ago is a clear change when the deep convection was right over the center.

Right now i'd go with 40kts with a steady weakening, however in that convection to the south you'd probably still get 45-50kts gusts in the downbursts probably. If the shear keeps rising then the LLCC will become exposed and probably quicker wekaneing into a tropical depression will occur.

[Somerset Squall]

Totally agree with that KW, Rosie is really suffering at the moment and most of the deep convection is displaced south of the centre due to strong shear. However, in the last couple of hours a renewed burst of convection has formed over Rosie's centre which may allow the cyclone to live a little longer but the truth is that if this shear continues then Rosie will probably degenerate into a remant low within the next 24 hours IMO.

[Cookie]

rosie what a nice name for a change :lol:

a bit late

Storm Alert issued at 22 Apr, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ROSIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cove (10.4 S, 105.7 E)

probability for TS is 70% currently

[Somerset Squall]

Rosie has weakened to 35kts. Convection remains deepest south of the centre but it has been flaring closer to the centre over the last 6 hours in particular. Shear is expected to remain strong though, so it all depends how long Rosie can struggle to keep reforming that convection over the centre as to how much longer Rosie lasts.

Edited April 23, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Rosie has dissipated. The shear has remained strong and the weakening remnant circulation is moving over even cooler waters so regeneration is not expected.

[Cookie]

RIP rosie

thanks for the updates somerset