Tropical Cyclone Nargis

[Cookie]

Thanks kold weather a very good and interesting post

also thanks somerset for answering the question

[kold weather]

Sadly nearly single top 12 deadilest cyclones are from that part of SE Asia including the Indian region, unoffical reports of 100,000 dead but I've not seen it confirmed just yet but thats probably sadly realisitic in this situation.

[Calrissian]

I still think the media are just being 'weird' about this.

I refer people to the Sat' pics of the area posted earlier.

An area that had - according to the best data, around 5-6 million people, various large chunks - primarily the populated areas, are missing.

A million dead? 1 out of 10 make it out of there alive ? 5 million? The numbers are somewhat unfathomable, but the Sat' pics do not lie, and they show gaping holes in the delta region.

Do these speculations sound too wildly incorrect? To anyone who disagrees, how can you say so? The sat' pics are totally conclusive.

Imagine if London was missing off a map. Assuming no one could 'move out' ahead of a storm, forming a fair guess at the real number isn't really that hard.

It indeed does seem that this is the worse human devastating storm in recorded history ? It would seem there is little doubt the name Nargis will become infamous in history.

--

Indeed, I think its clear to many now that 'warnings' are irrelevant anyway, in areas where people are simply too poor to evac' outta there.

[Cookie]

Its all very sad.

its shame whats happening in Burma

[Somerset Squall]

Probably won't make much of a difference now but a tropical disturbance/depression (JTWC have sustained winds of 25-30kts with the circulation) is making landfall in the exact same area that Nargis hit, bringing further heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Can't really make things worse than they are already but certainly not helping nonetheless. The disturbance is forecated to move westwards back over the bay of bengal and has a fair chance of developing, will make a new thread if it does.

Sat image showing the disturbance, clear rotation and consolidation happening here:

[Kiwi]

Weather not really looking terribly helpful to the relief efforts, such as they are;

WTIO21 PGTW 132030

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 96.1E TO 19.4N 92.1E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-

AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 16.7N 95.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:

RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121210Z SSMI

MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING

OF CONVECTION AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER,

MORE RECENTLY, CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO LAND

INTERACTION. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING

GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YANGON DELTA REGION OF MYANMAR.

OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGON AS OF 131300Z, SUPPORT A 25 TO 30 KNOT

CIRCULATION WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1000 MB (3 MB PRESSURE

FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A PARTIAL 130301Z ASCAT

IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE

CENTER WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, FURTHER PROOF OF

CYCLONIC TURNING. THE CENTER CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVOR-

ABLE SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS

CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MINIMAL DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL IS

EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW LYING TOPOGRAPHY AND FAIRLY QUICK TRANSIT

OVER THE LOW-LYING COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR. EMERGENCE

INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD WITH THE ONLY LIMITATION BEING

TEMPORARY LAND INTERACTION.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 142030Z.//

NNNN

[Cookie]

thats all they need

[Somerset Squall]

thats all they need

Fortunately, the disturbance is now dissipating and development looks unlikely.

[Somerset Squall]

Another news article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7399830.stm

Death toll officially now at 38,500- utterly devestating. Frustratingly, the government is still refusing most of the help the country so desperately needs. It's far too late for many, and most aren't getting any aid at all.

The last bit sums it up and is really mindblowing:

A BBC correspondent in Burma described aid delivery as "unco-ordinated and piecemeal". He said one devastated village - with one-quarter of its 400 houses left standing - had received just one bag of rice from the government.

Edited May 14, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thats disgraceful!

do these storms get their names retired as well?

[Somerset Squall]

thats disgraceful!

do these storms get their names retired as well?

Agreed.

Technically no, but in the North Indian Ocean, names are only used once anyway- they don't have a set of lists which they re-use again like the Atlantic does.

[Somerset Squall]

Situation still very grave out in Burma, with many STILL without aid.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/intern...ponse-to-Nargis

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

The main priority is preparing the land for a crop of rice so Burma don't have to rely on the little aid that's getting through. I suspect though that a lot of the land is still barren and unsutible for growing a food crop.

Edited May 31, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

Sad sad state of affairs, not offence to china or anyone but the earthquake did in a way take the attention away from burma