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Day 2 Pictures Of The Team


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Location of the team and risk map..

post-1669-1209601983_thumb.jpg

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SPC-Day2 Discussion

ACUS02 KWNS 301737

SWODY2

SPC AC 301735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1235 PM CDT WED APR 30 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL

PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST...REACHING THE CNTRL AND

SRN PLAINS THURSDAY. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL

ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER

ERN NEB AS LEAD IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH UPPER TROUGH. EARLY THURSDAY

A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN KS...W CNTRL OK

AND INTO SWRN TX. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN

NEB SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD DURING THE

DAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD

FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...ERN OK AND ERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF MO AND AR...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF

IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS FROM BROWNSVILLE

TO CORPUS CHRISTI. DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SSWLY

LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL ADVECT AN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW

60S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ERN OK...ERN KS AND THE LOW-MID MS

VALLEY REGIONS. SWLY MID FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL

ADVECT AN EML OVER THE MOIST AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EML

WILL ALSO SERVE TO CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH

OF THE DAY.

THE GFS...NAM...NAM KF AND ECMWF ALL DO NOT INITIATE SURFACE BASED

STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DRYLINE

INITIATION REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE

MID MS VALLEY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NWD INTO NRN KS AND NERN NEB BY

EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET COULD SERVE TO LIMIT

DEPTH OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN OK AND

ERN KS BY EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING

SPEED MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES

WARMING THROUGH THE 80S...DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND MODEST HEIGHT

FALLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AND INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS

FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ERN KS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY

TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BUT

HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND HELICITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD EVENING

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. BULK SHEAR

WILL ALSO INCREASE AS MID LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER

TROUGH. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND

TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN

VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. ONCE MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THAT THE CAP

WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR DRYLINE INITIATION...PORTIONS OF THIS

AREA MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT

AS IT ADVANCES SEWD AND INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS. DAMAGING WIND AND

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...ERN NEB THROUGH IA...

MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED WITH AN

AXIS OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY EAST OF SURFACE LOW.

HOWEVER...COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH -13 TO -14C AT 500 MB WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST THE CAP COULD DELAY OR LIMIT INITIATION POTENTIAL IN THIS

REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON

AND SURFACE HEATING MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP. POTENTIAL

WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND JUST EAST OF

SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO SELY.

SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN

THREATS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING

THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 04/30/2008

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

thanks for the updates guys. sounds like the visit to greensburg has stirred some emotions. ;) lets hope that any storms this season are not so damaging to life and property. yet good to see and chase.

Am keeping an eye on the noaa/SPC site too Paul (potty) so will hopefully see any change in this lull over the next day or so.

nice to see the NW ambassadors are making friends with the locals. hope you are all keeping well and enjoying the experience so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I am in Bartlesville, OK about 40 miles of Tulsa also. I went to Coffeyville first but the 2 motels were fully booked. (I thought it strange as my streets and trips showed more motels in the town) I was originally kinda glad because the place looked a right mess in most areas with abandoned houses and businesses everywhere. I originally just assumed it was a run down town but I saw a sign on an abandoned building mentioning a flood so googled it just a few mins ago and the following video on youtube appeared.

It seems the entire town was flooded by rain water and oil from a leaking refinery last year. On the video at 2:54 is the Best Western I tried to get into with floodwater 6 feet deep up the windows on the ground floor and that isn't even in the lowest point of town. Apparently all the missing motels from my GPS were just torn down as it wasn't cost worthy to repair the damage.

I can certainly draw parallels to Greensberg with this, but unlike that well known event, I've never even heard about this. It seems to have had a similar sort of effect on the town though.

Here's a photo essay showing the devastation last year... Amazing pics

http://www.impactlab.com/2007/07/07/photo-...feyville-flood/

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

No vast changes in the 00z model run. I feel that the front will probably be stronger this time in the northern half of KS as well as southeast Nebraska, it will probably be difficult to pinpoint a chase target until well after 12z because clearly moisture inflow is somewhat limited and this may pretty well keep the situation stable for a while in northeast OK and even southeast KS. I imagine there will be some activity with the front tonight as it separates from the Front Range and allows the colder air to stream south from eastern WY and western NE, but this may come and go before 12z at which time the action could be fairly subdued and limited to some cells near the KS-NE border. Later on around 15-18z there could be a slow build-up of moderate TRW south towards Salina cutting off some distance north of Wichita. By 18-21z tornadic activity should develop somewhere west or northwest of Topeka. This could include isolated cells further south towards Chanute but I think the higher risk area will be Topeka KS to Concordia Ks to Grand Island NE. This would then shift north mainly towards Sioux Falls SD, Sioux City IA and Omaha NE by end of daylight, with some risk into the Kansas City area.

Friday's outlook would be for moderate risk in much of Iowa especially central to southeast, extending into Missouri, w IL and sw WI.

Today's strong southerly wind should ease late tonight ahead of the developing trough and cold front, expecting max temps in eastern KS near 27 C with dew points near 17 C.

Should be a good day if a bit challenging to set up in the right general area.

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Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

You must be having a great time chaps, but don't forget the sunscreen on those (dare I say it...) rather pale looking legs!

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