Days 4 to 7 - Discussion

[Cookie]

just caught up the know brilliant updates guys!!

what a funny video!

[John Hanrahan]

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!! Am in stitches here!! LOLOLOL

Plenty more where that came from. Next installment will be Paul S doing Abba! Watch this space.

[Louise]

Absolutely great to follow what's going on with you guys!!! Hubs said he'd really love to do it next year but we shall see... The youtube clips are fantastic and give a real insight into what's going on out there, it's almost surreal!! Looking forward to the updates!!

Stay safe all x

[Paul Sherman]

We have arrived in OK City and are about to head out for Dinner. Nice drive to Amarillo tomorrow in readiness for the Big Challenge for one of the 10!

Paul S

[grab my graupel]

We have arrived in OK City and are about to head out for Dinner. Nice drive to Amarillo tomorrow in readiness for the Big Challenge for one of the 10!

Paul S

Great stuff Paul

What time does the Big challenge actually start UK time, and when will we find out the result?

[I can't believe it's not better]

I hope they don't choke whoever it is. I'm a veggie myself - imagine eating 72oz of Linda Mcartney sausages in one sitting. It beggars belief. How does she still make them?

It kind of reminds me of Bodmin the giant rabbit - who can polish off an entire lettuce in just one sitting (so I've heard).

[Stu]

Actually today was a great chase day - I saw three tornados around Memphis A muti vortex, a VERY strong cone as well as a nice Elephant trunk which at one stage was less than 1/4 mile from my location - given my "bust" in Kansas yesterday I was glad of some tornadic action today - I will post up some video tomorrow - some of it is really good.

[Gorky]

I knew you'd have caught something today. I had GRLevel3 running all day whilst travelling and glanced down at traffic ligths etc and saw you perfectly placed near I think New Albany, Ms. It makes me annoyed I didn't go chase them, as I'd said on this thread I would chase from NE AK, was still considering it last night, but the squall line which came through gave me no sleep so I stayed in bed till 10:30am in the end I'm in Wichita Falls and will spend tomorrow geeking out at a local gaming store, and then probably go see Iron Man After that, we'll see what next week brings. I'd imagine some sort of threat on Sunday in SC TX but I'm not sure if I want to drive all that way for what might just be severe thunderstorms. Next week does look EPIC as far as storms go. No real model consistency other than there will be storms but there will hopefully be plenty of chaseable days to come.

[I can't believe it's not better]

Amazing that thing shifts along ripping up stuff. Deadly.

Amazing!

[Paul Sherman]

Actually today was a great chase day - I saw three tornados around Memphis A muti vortex, a VERY strong cone as well as a nice Elephant trunk which at one stage was less than 1/4 mile from my location - given my "bust" in Kansas yesterday I was glad of some tornadic action today - I will post up some video tomorrow - some of it is really good.

Well done Stu!

Nice to see the 1st Uk Chasers Tornado for the 2008 Season, you must be Knackered though!

Great stuff Paul

What time does the Big challenge actually start UK time, and when will we find out the result?

Brian

The 72oz Challenge starts at about 2am your Time on Sunday Morning and the Youtube Video Highlights will be on for you guys on Sunday Afternoon!

[NL]

Although Netweather stormchasing team didnt chase into eastern US (reasons see above posts) there

was 53 reported tornadoes from northern Arkansas down to Louisiana. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Ben Holcomb from severestudios managed to catch this near Turrell Arkansas. http://severestudios.com/

[kold weather]

Great news Stu the first UK tornado hopefully one of many!

NL, yep certainly a very active day, though the region isn't the best for chasing sadly bar small areas.

[Paul Sherman]

The pattern over here has been awful since we landed but a glimmer of hope is next Wednesday 7th May with what looks like a Significant event for OK/KS, Tornadoes could be plentiful so one to look forward to.

Before that though we have the opportunity to have a Guided tour of the SPC Offices at Norman on Monday morning with Howie Bluestein, this will be great for everyone on the tour and we will see how the NWS Put together the forecasts etc.

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Yes.. Something to keep an eye on..

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 030846

SPC AC 030846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0346 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2008

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST GEFS GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER

AGREEMENT DURING THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND

EJECTION OF THE BAJA CUT-OFF UPR LOW. THIS COMPACT FEATURE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO NM BY EARLY TUE...KS/OK

TUE EVENING AND INTO MO/AR BY EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT

MID LVL JET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWWD

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND

SOUTH OF A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT FROM CNTRL KS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.

AS THE UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE

FRONT OVER CNTRL KS BY EARLY WED...THEN DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL MO BY

WED EVENING. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX QUICKLY EWD WITH SEVERE TSTMS

EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF IT FROM PARTS OF SCNTRL KS SWD INTO CNTRL OK

WED AFTN. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES ATOP AT LEAST MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT

FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD TOWARD

THE MO/AR OZARKS WED NIGHT.

BEYOND WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPR FLOW

REGIME WITH PREDICTABILITY BECOMING LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

WEEK.

..RACY.. 05/03/2008

[Nick F]

Well, the Big Texan at Amarillo tonight, which should be a great night.

Tomorrow, looking at the NAM and SPC forecasts - chance of some non-severe elevated storms developing initially over SE Colorado then shifting east over Kansas Sunday night - so we may position ourselves somehwere over SW/SC Kansas tomorrow with a head NE from AMA - some night-time lightning photography certainly possible.

Monday, we'll head down to Norman to have a tour around the SPC center in the morning, then perhaps head west towards Wern OK for possible supercell storms developing through the day moving up from the S/SW which look to form an MCS overnight - so some good structures during the day, with possible LPs developing, with another chance for some night-time lightning photography.

Just getting ourselves organised before we head west to Amarillo in a while.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I hope you get some lightning shots, it's a great feeling when you capture lightning.

Do you know about ND400 filters? They seem hard to get hold of, especially in the UK, but they allow exposures of over 15 seconds even in daylight, so daytime lightning photography would be possible.

Here's one on Amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/Hoya-Neutral-Density...d/dp/B0002XU6IG

If you come across any over there maybe it would be good buy

Have fun!

[Stu]

I see Monday to Wednesday as solid chase days now - make the most of this down time as we will be busy !!

[Paul Sherman]

Totally agree Stu, cannot wait for the Panhandle Magic early next week, where are you tonight ??

Paul S

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[grab my graupel]

Morning Guys

Well it looks as though Ian is firm favouritre for this challenge by a wide margin, although I'm sticking with John

as I think he could be a dark horse.

We will find out very soon.

Which ever one of the team it is I hope you enjoy it and good Luck

Brian