Day 8 - Discussion

[Roger J Smith]

So far today Guymon OK (in the panhandle) has shown the fastest temperature climb, which is often a good sign of where activity can be expected to peak later. With the n/c KS action likely to fall south, watch for moisture streak signature across OK-KS border region with retrograde tendency, this should signal supercell formation around 22z to 00z in areas between Dalhart and Guymon south to Tucumcari to Amarillo. I have the feeling that this could become very severe because of a strong J-field energy peak at 06z with all elements rotating clockwise to near the four o'clock position, the loops are quite diffuse at the moment but the centre of the system is around southeast CO. Expect backbuilding tendencies with anything that does get going, as energy increases from east to west across the developing field of cells.

[Gorky]

I'm holding put in Clovis for the moment seeing what happens. Not moving off after the storms coming off the high plains just yet.

[NL]

Current action is around 150mile sw of Clovis (Gorky's and Stu Robinsons position) with cells

producing 2.75in hail.

New MD from the SPC for the area Roger pointed out earlier (Good call Roger )

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

[Roger J Smith]

Well, who even knew that Colorado and Oklahoma had a border? But that's where a rather promising cell is developing at present. Look for more arcing across the OK panhandle as this begins to join up with the developing line northeast of Guymon. It looks like something will blow up in this area in about 2-3 hours.

If you look at the google earth views of the OK panhandle, two things stand out. The deeply cut canyons of the North Canadian and Cimarron Rivers, otherwise mostly flat to rolling plateau, and large circular fields which must reflect the reach of irrigation systems. I notice also the highest point in Oklahoma is basically the northwest corner of the panhandle, gets into mesa type country there.

I don't recall a case of severe weather in the Guymon or Boise City area, although they must get some, but I feel that eventually the action will be in far northern Texas. Somewhere between Dalhart and Borger is my guess for the eventual chase.

[Gorky]

On a nice storm west of Roswell at the moment. No real south options to get close, until it gets closer to Roswell though. It got a nice stacked updraft. I'm sure it would look really striated if the sun was hitting it from the right angle.

[NL]

David Drummond is also on that cell Nath,with a lowering wall cloud on his streaming cam.

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

[Gorky]

This storm is showing incredible structure!

[Stu]

I am right behind you (gorky) on the Roswell storm - bewarned mutiple vechiles passing me with broken glass - 3" hail widly reported !

[NL]

Stu Robinson is also on this cell(as you know)* ,live streaming too, keeps on threatening but still hasnt dropped

a tornado.

* Just seen above post.

Edited May 5, 2008 by NL

[Roger J Smith]

Meanwhile severe storms reported now in southwest KS around Garden City and also the cell I was mentioning which has crossed into extreme sw KS from se CO, hugging the OK panhandle border. This has large hail in it also.

Activity will probably continue to intensify to 06z after dark. Bear in mind back in UK, this is far enough west to be more or less MDT zone whether it is technically or not, so another hour of daylight, it's only 4:42 pm MDT so four hours of daylight left for these chasers.

If the team has stayed around Dalhart then they might be backtracking to the storm north of Boise City OK or there's a small but active cell northwest of Tucumcari NM that looks like a possible developer. I think more will develop soon in the dry area over the panhandles, this is eventually where the intense activity at 06z should be, and I think it converges from all three areas around it.

[Gorky]

Well, I caught a bit of the hail just there despite being well south of the hail core. The main core had passed and then I got clobbered by golf balls and a bit bigger from the rear flank. I have a few minor dents but luckily nothing more. Gonna have to let the big cell go I think as I really don't want to play in that hail again. B)

[Roger J Smith]

A good location at present would be Guymon OK to Liberal KS, that cell in sw KS is beefing up and starting to show a southeastward drift. The cells in n.e. NM have been severe warned but don't look too strong.

Garden City was hit with strong winds and baseball sized hail in past hour, now those storms are losing intensity. Edit -- one of the cells seems to have redeveloped to supercell status just east of Garden City.

Was saying that the cell west of Liberal looks like the big player now, other than the Roswell storm. Seems like it will turn out to be a good chase target at any rate, the storm east of Garden City is more of a threat for the next half hour at least.

Radar at 2350z was looking fairly threatening for Liberal and Guymon, could be seeing large hail and winds gusting to 60 mph soon in that area.

Edited May 5, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

The place to be is Hooker, OK.

I guarantee this is a weather-related comment. B)

[Nick F]

We've just booked in to the Day's Inn in Liberal, KS. We chased a great storm area from Elkhart east towards Liberal. Some amazing structure to it, we watched and filmed a wall cloud close to the ground NW of Hooker which looked close to dropping a tornado at one point before it lifted. The Boys have pictures and video footage to upload later. The storm's gust front/outflow was picking up great clouds of dust off the fields too, which added an interesting aspect too.

Looks like we have a landspout on camera too!

Nice hail storm here atm and lots of lightning B)

[Gorky]

I'm checked in in Roswell having seen an excellent supercell and then being smacked by RFD containing tennisball hail once I thought the worst of the storm had passed B)

Won't be able to do much of a report as the Internet connection here does not work and i'm using my mobile wifi which is poor in this area. Here's a pic of the storm I was on anyway.

[John Hanrahan]

Paul, you angel delight! Warning to the team, dont leave your laptops unattended. This is what happens. You will pay!! B)

Top of de mornin to ya, we've driven more dan tirty tree moiles dis mornin and are now in de little town of Liberal. We'll be jigging our way down to Dalhart shortly.

[Roger J Smith]

As of 0228z radar showing a tornado just north of I-40 about 10-15 miles west of Amarillo.

[Stu]

I am still playing with the ex Roswell storm - just waiting for it to pass to my East before heading up to overnight at Clovis.

[Gorky]

Awesome Lightning Show right now

[Roger J Smith]

This is why you might want to park inside:

HAIL 5 S WHITES CITY 32.10N 104.38W

05/05/2008 E4.25 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

OFF DUTY POLICE OFFICER AT WASHINGTON RANCH REPORTED

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL FOR A 15 MINUTE DURATION. AT THE END

OF THE EVENT, BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL WAS

REPORTED, DESTROYING THE NORTH SIDE OF HIS HOUSE AND

BLOWING OUT WINDOWS.

(from the Texas state public reports ... seems that Texas gathers info from parts of eastern NM and the OK panhandle, so if you're ever looking for public reports from those areas, don't look under NM or OK. )

B)

[MAF]

latest from NOAA/SPC

seems that things may be quiet today

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/d...k_1200_prt.html

[Roger J Smith]

There may be some less than perfect factors in this set-up, but on the whole, I think Tuesday should produce at least as many good opportunities as today did. The focus may be further east and south (for the NW team, that is) -- I would say Clinton to Oklahoma City may be the best chase area, although east of Lubbock in general should be good. There may also be renewed activity in eastern NM although this time it will probably not merge with the other action in some grand finale.

Will add some more ideas after seeing later guidance and the team's plans for the day.

[dallas]

A major storm tracking from coast to coast this week could unleash a rash of tornadoes over the South Central states Wednesday into Wednesday night. A swath over central, North and East Texas north and east to Missouri, Arkansas and southern Illinois will be at risk of severe thunderstorms threatening hail, high winds, excessive rains and tornadoes. The severe potential Wednesday will be bolstered by the emergence of the parent storm onto the Great Plains in tandem with the easterly sweep of a dry line over Texas.

Hi, some info for the chasers courtesy of Accuweather, looks good for tomorrow B)

[Cookie]

thanks for the great updates guys, very intresting