TWO Weather Forecast Update

[Stuart]

Reasonable in the south

The weather is now improving across the UK with pressure beginning to build. However, it's not all plane sailing, as there will be a good deal of cloud around, and there could be some heavy rain in central and northern regions in particular as weather fronts push in from the west. These will struggle to move south and east, and so these regions should have the warmest and driest weather with temperatures on Sunday and bank holiday Monday possibly reaching 22C.

During the first half of next week high pressure looks set to hold the fort bringing a good deal of dry and possibly sunny weather.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Edited May 5, 2008 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summer arrives this week

A good deal of sunny weather during the week ahead, but there will be an increasing risk of thundery showers developing from Thursday onwards. With temperatures widely reaching 22C in southern and central areas it will feel more like summer than spring, so it may be an ideal opportunity for a barbecue if you can avoid the showers! The same theme looks set to continue during the weekend and quite possibly into next week. With very long days at this time of year, our advice is to make the most of the clement weather as there is no guarantee that it will persist into summer proper. Indeed a lot of indications at the moment suggest the coming summer will be distinctly average, but we'll be letting you know our thoughts on the prospects soon!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Ideal barbecue conditions for some!

Very warm weather is set to continue across the UK during the weekend and the first half of next week. Most places should also have a good deal of sunshine, although in northern and western areas some showers are likely. Those of you who look at the computer model charts on this site may have noticed large amounts of precipitation showing up at times. In this type of set-up we'd urge you to treat these with caution because the forecasting model does tend to overcook dew points and the amount of convective shower development.

If you do like the sun then make the most of it this weekend because it does look like next week will see a big change in the weather as Atlantic weather fronts begins to punch through the high pressure block over the UK. This is likely to lead to cooler and less settled weather during the second half of the week with rain or showers in all areas at times.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Fine at first, change later

The summery weather is likely to continue across much of the UK during the next few days, but then a change is expected to take place as pressure begins to fall and less settled conditions return, especially in southern areas. So far this month temperature have been way above the seasonal average with values of 27C being recorded in places. By the end of the coming week, even southern areas are likely to be recording maximum values in the mid to high teens. Although long range forecasting is prone to error, we do currently think the probabilities favour a relatively lengthy spell of mixed weather, lasting possibly until the second week of June.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Edited May 13, 2008 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Mixed weekend on the way

The weather has now changed, although even some parts of the south didn't have that much rain during Thursday, and further north it has remained dry for many. It looks as though during the next few days there will be further outbreaks of showery rain affecting southern areas from time to time, but central and northern regions should remain drier. It will be much cooler with temperatures in southern areas much closer to 15C than 27C which we had only a few days ago. Middle May often heralds the start of an unsettled spell of weather known as the European monsoon. This develops because the European land mass heats rapidly during the first half of May, but the Atlantic Ocean remains rather cool after the winter and early spring. This combination tends to increase the strength of the westerly circulation bringing active rain bearing weather fronts off the Atlantic towards western Europe. It should only last a couple of weeks or so, although last summer it never seemed to end!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Chilly mornings, frost in places!

Those of you who are out and about early on will probably notice a distinct chill in the air during the next few days. In northern and central areas some overnight ground frost and possibly air frost is likely, so gardeners take note! The culprit is a big area of high pressure parked to the north of the UK which is letting some chilly arctic air seep down towards our part of the world. However, as we go through the week it does look as though temperatures will begin to rise, and by the middle of the week it should be feeling pleasantly warm during the day, especially in southern areas. Despite the early chill it does look as though there should be a good deal of dry weather about, and sunny spells in most places. There's some uncertainty about how things will play out during the second half of the week, but our view is that it will stay reasonable for many, but in southern areas showery rain could develop for a time.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Improving later this week

Many southern and central parts of Britain had horrendous weather during the bank holiday with well over an inch of rain falling quite widely. The culprit was a slow moving area of low pressure and it will continue to influence the weather during the next few days, but it should gradually fill and head off to the north. This means that the more persistent rain will move north, but it should gradually become lighter as it does so.

During the second half of the week it does look as though things will improve, with increasingly warm conditions developing, especially in the south. There should also be an increasing amount of dry and sunny weather, although it may well be quite humid and this could start to trigger off some thunderstorms in southern areas.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Reasonable weekend for many

Much of central and southern Britain has had an exceptionally wet week as the European monsoon season got into full swing. This isn't an unusual phenomena and occurs because the European land mass heats up quickly during May, whilst the Atlantic Ocean (large masses of water take much longer than land to warm up or cool down) remains rather cool. This temperature contrast provides ideal conditions for unsettled and wet weather to develop across western Europe. The question is what happens next? At the moment computer forecasting models are flipping between possible outcomes, suggesting that each one of them is a realistic possibility! Wet and cool, hot and dry, and a whole range of possibilities in between. So in other words, at this moment we aren't at all confident about know how things will develop in the short to mid term. Note: Our long range summer forecast will be be issud during the next couple of days.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summer 2008 forecast issued

TheWeatherOutlook (TWO) summer forecast covering June, July and August is now online here. The headline is for a reasonable summer with warmer than average temperatures, and possibly slightly below average levels of rainfall. In our view the current ENSO (La Niña / El Niño phasing ) conditions which look to be trending back towards neutral are one of the factors that should encourage a better then average summer across the UK. During recent years summers have often been better than the long term average, although of course summer 2007 broke the good run bringing copious quantities of rain to many parts of the country.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Very uncertain outlook

Lots of uncertainty on how the weather will develop during the next week or two, with computer models churning out different solutions from run to run. There have been indications that we are about to enter a dry, settled and warm period of weather, but confidence on this is very low. The key will be how close to the UK a large area of high pressure can park. If it settles in about 500 to 1000 miles west of the UK the result will be cooler and less settled conditions, particularly in eastern districts. Alternatively, if it anchors over the UK we could expect a week or two of glorious summer weather.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Often dry, temps falling

There should be a good deal of dry and at times sunny weather as we go through the week. Change is on the way though, as the portly area of high pressure currently parked close to the UK does a googly on us and pushes back into the Atlantic. This will allow a weather front during the middle part of the week to slip southwards bringing cooler air down from the north as it does so. The frontal system isn't likely to bring large amounts of rain, but the change in temperature is likely to be noticeable. Towards the end of the week and during the weekend it may turn showery in eastern areas, but confidence at this range is low. So all in all it looks likely to be a reasonably pleasant week, and with this type of set-up there is the chance that it could quickly warm up again. We'll be keeping an eye out for that possibility.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Fair weekend, then unsettled

Flaming June? Not really. The outlook during the next week is for mixed conditions across the UK with all areas likely to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. It also looks likely to be on the cool side for the time of year. On a more positive note there will be some dry weather around, and much of that is likely to be packed into this weekend when most parts of the country are likely to have some bright spells. Things look set to go downhill during the early part of next week as low pressure slides down from the north west bringing increasingly unsettled conditions. There are some indications of a warm up during the second half of next week, but all in all it looks like fairly typical British summer weather. A far cry from the halcyon summer day experienced during many recent years.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Loads of rain!

Unsettled conditions are likely during the next few days with most of the UK seeing rain at times. During Friday rain is expected to push into southern areas, with the heaviest bursts likely to be in the west. During Saturday the rain will push further north, and again some of it is likely to be heavy. By Sunday the rain is expected to be affecting Scotland, with brighter and warmer conditions to the south. So all in all a very mixed bag, and the unsettled theme is set to continue during next week with further rain or showers at times in all areas.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Unsettled week ahead

Good old fashioned British summer weather is likely for much of the week ahead. This means there will be some sunny spells, but also showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures will often be close to the seasonal average, so in southern areas values of up to 21C can be expected, but in the north it will generally be cooler. During the last couple of decades we have grown increasingly accustomed to spells of continental style weather during the summer months bringing temperatures of 30C or higher to southern parts of the country, so this summer and the one last year may be quite a shock, but they shouldn't necessarily be considered exceptional.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Still mixed weather

Still a fairly changeable outlook with rain at times, but also some drier and brighter weather. Temperatures will often be close to the seasonal average, so in southern areas values of up to 21C can be expected, but in the north it will generally be cooler. It does look as though during next week it may well turn warmer for a time especially in southern areas, but at the moment it looks unlikely to last for too long. So it still looks like an old fashioned English summer, with a few dry and sunny days followed by rain or showers.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Warm, then unsettled

Warm conditions are likely to develop for a time in southern and central areas, but they aren't set to last. By the middle of next week temperatures are expected to return to the seasonal average as westerly winds return. All areas are likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at times. So it still looks like an old fashioned English summer, with a few dry and sunny days followed by rain or showers. Still no definite signs of any prolonged summery spells of weather.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Rain or showers

All areas are likely to see more showers or longer spells of rain during the next few days as the generally unsettled theme continues. There will be some brighter interludes, but the general outlook is rather poor for July. There are some signs of an improvement as we head towards the middle of the month, but it is still too early to be confident about any major change in the weather patterns across the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Warmer next week

Mixed conditions again during the days ahead with some cool and in places wet weather this weekend followed by the possibility of much warmer weather by the middle of next week. The cool conditions in the short term will be brought about by a northerly airflow. As the weekend progresses this is likely to be cut off as high pressure builds in from the south west, and it is this development which may well open up the gate by the middle of next week enabling some very warm air to move up from Spain. Latest indications are that the warm or hot weather isn't likely to last, and by the end of next week we may be back to square one. So if summer does turn up next week, enjoy it while it lasts.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summer at last

Much warmer conditions are expected to develop across much of the UK during the next few days with many areas seeing values of 25C or even higher at times. There should also be a good deal of dry and at times sunny weather in southern and central areas, although in the north and west it is likely to be less settled at times with some rain or showers. One or two favoured areas may even record 30C, so it may turn out to be the warmest week of the summer. By the weekend cooler conditions may well be pushing back in from the west, and as the change occurs some thundery showers may develop

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Very warm, but storms in places

Plenty of warm or very warm conditions during the weekend and early next week, but also some showers which are likely to be heavy and thundery in places. The UK is currently sandwiched between a large area of high pressure to the east, and a deep low pressure system to the west. This means that changes in the overall pattern will be slow during the next few days, and those in favoured locations may well stay mostly dry and see a good deal of sunshine. So ideal barbecue conditions for some, but for others the prospect of a washout looms

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Turning less settled

Sunday brought 30C to parts of England for the first time this year, and although the heat will moderate it does look as though southern areas will have another often warm week. However, this isn’t the whole story as less settled conditions are likely in all areas at times, and in the north and west it is likely to unsettled for most of the week. The action begins on Monday evening with the possibility of some severe thunderstorms bringing torrential rain first to the south, and then pushing north overnight. More rain is likely on Tuesday, but after that it should warm up and dry out in the south east once again with the likelihood of some pleasant summer weather there in the middle part of the week. Confidence for next weekend is low, but at the moment it looks reasonable in the south, but northern districts may well remain changeable.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Back to average

The hot spell has now well and truly ended across the UK, and the days ahead are likely to bring significantly lower temperatures than we have become used to. However, it's not all bad news! The weather will be less settled weather than recently, but despite this there will be some drier and sunnier spells. In southern areas in particular rainfall is likely to be patchy, and with temperatures still reaching up to around 22C for much of the time it may well turn out to be not too bad.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Unsettled week ahead

A lot of rather poor weather is likely during the week ahead, with all areas seeing further rain at times. In general temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below the seasonal average, although for a time on Wednesday it may turn much warmer in the south and especially south east. There are some indications of it turning drier and brighter towards the weekend, but temperatures are likely to remain pegged back, and as the nights are now growing longer there is the chance that it will feel very nippy in central and northern areas early on Saturday and Sunday morning.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Changeable conditions

Still a few weeks to go before the start of autumn you wouldn't think so judging by the likely weather during the next week. Low pressure is set to drop anchor over the UK as pressure remains high over the continent blocking the usual weather system conveyor belt. This means that the current pattern is likely to persist for some time now. So all areas can expect showers or longer spells of rain at times with temperatures hovering around the seasonal average. It does look as though once again things may improve later in the month, so that is something to keep an eye on.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Yes, more rain...

Still no definite signs of a significant improvement in the weather according to the computer models, although climatology does suggest that things should improve during the next couple of weeks. In the more immediate future it looks as though all parts of the UK can expect to see further outbreaks of rain this weekend. Some drier and brighter interludes are likely though with eastern regions possibly having a decent Saturday morning, and then many parts of the country having some fine conditions for a time on Sunday before more rain is whipped in by the winds of the west later on.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/