Day 9 - Discussion

[NL]

No matter Rusty, can see cells starting to develop in the area Roger was forecasting earlier up

through Plainview ,Amarillo, pretty sure these will intensify.

[Rustynailer]

No matter Rusty, can see cells starting to develop in the area Roger was forecasting earlier up

through Plainview ,Amarillo, pretty sure these will intensify.

I see, just getting a little over exited, I watched streaming storms for the first time after clicking the link you put up earlier

Love it

Cheers NL

[NL]

He,He Rusty, yeah does get quite exciting, especially now we can see the cells on radar live

from 'In the field' on the streaming cams.

Lubbock looks to be getting a hammering very soon with 2.50 inch hail

and severe winds.

[NL]

Tornado watch # 269

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 269

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

620 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

BORGER TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[Roger J Smith]

Excellent, looking forward to it (so is Inktomi Spider, don't rush, it's just us) ...

Outlook for tomorrow from GEM regional, closed low quickly moves into the north Texas and then west-central OK regions next 18 hours, should massively inflame the already moist and unstable environment so that tomorrow may be a major-league big-time severe weather event in east-central OK. Seems to me it would get going quite early from around your current location and move steadily east into Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Somewhere between Norman and Ardmore might be the target but this looks like a rather tough chase with a lot of squall line potential developing for tomorrow.

And Thursday looks to be back to western KS for the next wave.

Just my prelim thoughts and I will stick around to hear about the chase. Keeping an eye on radar too, you may get some more severe weather later this evening.

[Paul Sherman]

Had a great day just to the East of Lubbock today, the team sampled many Supercells and tasted Golf Ball Sized Hail west of Guthrie, again no spin ups, photos were hard to come by as well but we managed a few. What I have got though is an hour of Dv Tape from the Front windscreen of amazing Cg Bolts, the footage before we went into the Hail core is great as well which I am sure Martyn will Youtube later, great when we approached and Core Punched the Supercell which had rotation and 3" Hail.

I asked Michael Fish "So do you want to Core Punch a Rotating Supercell with 3" Hail" over the radio and the response from the 2nd car was a Unanamous..................YEEEESSSSS!

So we turned into an eerie green sky and heavy rain turned to sporadic Golfballs, hearing Mr Fish say lets all pray before we went in was great and to see Barons having our car disect the Purple Hail core was amazing.

Will post pics later, 660 Miles today and absolutely knackered

Paul S

[stevestorms]

Hi was also in same area as you Paul and core punched before storms went MCS now sitting in storms over Lubbock up early to chase into Oklahoma also knackered !!!

Edited May 7, 2008 by stevestorms

[MAF]

todays outlook from NOAA/SPC

looking like a good start

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/d...k_1200_torn.gif

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #271

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0271.html

plenty showing up on the radar

[Rustynailer]

I asked Michael Fish "So do you want to Core Punch a Rotating Supercell with 3" Hail" over the radio and the response from the 2nd car was a Unanamous..................YEEEESSSSS!

Paul S

How is the car?

Look forward to the footage.

Bet you all get up late

Russ

[MAF]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0807.html

Meo discussion for watch #271

[Roger J Smith]

UPDATE _ May 7th 0855z (0355 CDT)

The extensive MCS complex over the TX panhandle and w OK remains locally severe and may fragment slowly this morning. The main cold front is rapidly developing through eastern NM and has set off a near-tornadic storm with very large hail near Clovis NM.

The upper air situation is highly volatile as a height and thickness crash is imminent over all of the region with a closed low rapidly forming over se NM then w/c TX into w OK. I expect this will go highly tornadic as dew points are well above 18 C ahead of this feature and with such a rapid squeeze play ongoing, the results are likely to be tornadic even without significant daytime heating ahead of the front.

Expect this to gradually accelerate after 12z so that positioning ahead of the squall line will be difficult without an early start. I am mentioning this now because I am packing it in here for the day (at 0200), and the available guidance seems a little restrained to me. Large tornadoes are quite possible in this situation in south central OK and north of DFW by about 16-17z, before that, damaging straight line winds and very large hail are quite likely. This chase will be possibly quite difficult due to safety concerns around a large fast-moving squall line type event.

[NL]

Indeed there were an array of supercells yesterday unfortunately for chasers none of

the southern cells produced any tornadoes, looking forward to see the video of the team

punching the core to get inside the 'Bears Cage'.(Crazy' bet you would'nt do it if it was ya own car Paul..!! )..

A drive of over 300 mile to the 10% tornado chance area and still a bit of uncertainty on how todays event will unfold.

.

Edited May 7, 2008 by NL

[Cookie]

A huge amount of petrol must be used!

[Greyowl]

A huge amount of petrol must be used!

True cookie but It's a have to do thing to get to the storms and It's a hell of a lot cheaper over the pond luckily. I wouldn't want to storm chase at our petrol prices.

Good hunting for today team. Some great photo's coming back, keep em coming.

[MAF]

Indeed there were an array of supercells yesterday unfortunately for chasers none of the southern cells produced any tornadoes, looking forward to see the video of the team punching the core to get inside the 'Bears Cage'.(Crazy' bet you would'nt do it if it was ya own car Paul..!! ).. A drive of over 300 mile to the 10% tornado chance area and still a bit of uncertainty on how todays event will unfold. .

whats your destination mate? I want to check out the area on NOAA

latest reports from SPC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[MAF]

quite a bit of thunderstorm activity

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fdr...111&loop=no

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 272

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

735 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 735 AM UNTIL

100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE

MORNING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM ERN OK NEWD INTO SW MO.

THE 12Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING REVEALED MUCAPE OF ABOUT 2300 J/KG

BASED NEAR 850 MB AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM...WHICH

SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST

LATE MORNING.

Edited May 7, 2008 by Mick

[VillagePlank]

z = GMT

Zulu time. Called because the Greenwich meridian is a zero hours timezone, and the phonetic alphabet call sign for 'z' is zulu.