Day 11 - Discussion

[ian cameron]

SPC Have a slight risk for today with a 2% Tornado Risk in Southern & Western Kansas also parts of the Panhandle

This would put us out of position for dropping off the guests at DFW Tomorrow so we are getting a personal tour of the SPC In Norman with Howie Bluestien before heading south towards Decatur for overnight before begrudgingly saying goodbye tomorrow to the Tour 1 Guests.

Paul Sherman

[Stu]

After looking at this I am firmly believing that there could be a nice supercell (poss Tornadic) over the Panhandles later today. I like the Triple point around Dodge city - but I have to start finish from OKC as I have new guests to scoop up ready for the start of tomorrows tour.

Ether way - it is May, I am in Oklahoma, good 500mb flow across the panhandles - and I am not going to sit in a hotel -I have got to go and chase :lol:

I will be setting off @15:00pm local

BTW

RUC2 EHI forecast for 00z today.

[MAF]

current SPC/NOAA Watches

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

looks like the guys will be away from the possible tornado action

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA

NORTHWEST GEORGIA

EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

[Gorky]

Gah.. I so nearly didn't chase yesterday and was going to head up to Kansas instead, but blew it off once I saw the tor probs for yesterday and today's discussion. Now there are 2 awesome looking tornadic supecells out in the Kansas plains barely moving and I'm 10 hours away :lol: Why the hell do I not go with my isntincts on these things as I was even considering Goodland as a starting location. It usually works out ok when I do my own thing. As it is, I've blown an almost certain chance to be on those cells by driving 7 hours east yesterday

Somebody slap the SPC forecaster who was on call yesterday whilst they are up in Norman

[MAF]

bad luck mate

*slap*

there, that better :lol:

so where are you now ??

[chionomaniac]

Stu seems to be driving hard to get there.(Western Kansas).

Lets hope he makes it in time to see some action. Tornados already reported!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

c

[MAF]

this looks good

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW

278...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

NOAA/SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0313 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

[SnowBear]

Gorky, take it easy, you win some, you lose some

Enjoy the SPC visit folks, I expect that is going to be awesome! And really, to experience the place I guess you need to be there when things are happening and the place is in full flow!

[NL]

Tornado warnings For Kansas

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

337 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

KSC109-199-203-082200-

O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080508T2200Z

WICHITA KS-LOGAN KS-WALLACE KS-

437 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/

FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE...SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND NORTH

CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

RUSSELL SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

RUSSELL SPRINGS AROUND 445 PM CDT..

TornadoWarning - 08/2245Z

WFUS53 KDDC 082200

TORDDC

KSC055-101-171-082245-

O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0003.080508T2200Z-080508T2245Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

500 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WESTERN LANE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF

SHALLOW WATER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GRIGSTON...

MANNING...

AMY...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHERN FINNEY...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND

WESTERN LANE COUNTIES.

[MAF]

am keeping an eye on this NL. they are suggesting things may be upgraded for the Eastern area now.

[NL]

am keeping an eye on this NL. they are suggesting things may be upgraded for the Eastern area now.

The SPC have already upgraded chances of tornadoes in Kansas from 0% this morning to 5% now.

[chionomaniac]

The SPC have already upgraded chances of tornadoes in Kansas from 0% this morning to 5% now.

The storm north of Garden City seems to be increasing in intensity with a definite hook in its tail. I wonder if there is a tornado on the ground now- certainly the relative motion analysis is interesting!

[MAF]

well i am keeping an eye on this to see if it gets upgraded

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0826.html

[NL]

Mesoscale discussion now upgraded to tornado watch

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0829.html

[MAF]

yep watch 281

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

3" hail

[Roger J Smith]

Looks ominous for the small town of Jetmore (about 1,000 people) as this supercell dives southeast with a hook echo suggesting F2-3 tornado. Just two counties north and one county west of Greensburg, and like that town, the county seat.

I hope Stu made it to this storm, if any chasers read this, be careful of an acceleration southeastward. This is starting to show later MCS tendencies that could sweep activity towards n.w. OK this evening.

[MAF]

thanks Roger

current status of watch #282

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

SPARTANBURG SOUTH CAROLINA.

NOAA/SPC

[Gorky]

I'm going to guess it isn't tornado producing at this time. Mike Umschield of Dodge city NWS is on the storm, and I'm sure the tornado warnings would state if one was on the ground. Much like the Roswell storm of a few days, I suspect it is pretty classic looking but slightly elevated resulting in more of hail threat, but with just enough possibility for breif spinups that they really have to keep the Tor warning on it. Still, these type of storms are probably my favourite of all of them as the structure cannot be beaten. I'd imagine this storm has been absolutely beautiful during most of it's life.

Also, Stu is now only 30-40 miles away and given the terrain, I wouldn't be surprised if he could see the base of the storm already. In this area, you can feasibly see the top of a big storm 300 miles away

The latest radar update shows very large returns in the hook area. Sometimes this might be assosciated with debris, but at this range from the radar, I suspect it is signs of an immense updraft. I could see some massive hail reports come in from jetmore in the enxt 15 mins. It looks like Mike and another chaser are in Jetmore itself, probably looking to ride out the hail under shelter. If they don't move, I think we can be sure there is no imminent tor threat.

...and as I say that, they both bugger off

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Also, Stu is now only 30-40 miles away and given the terrain, I wouldn't be surprised if he could see the base of the storm already. In this area, you can feasibly see the top of a big storm 300 miles away

Stu is just behind Roger Hill, they look like they're heading towards a storm now, is that the one you mean or is there something else beyond that?

Looks like they're going pretty fast!

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

[chionomaniac]

Stu is just behind Roger Hill, they look like they're heading towards a storm now, is that the one you mean or is there something else beyond that?

Looks like they're going pretty fast!

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Cor blimey I have never seen clouds form as quick as on Stu's chasecam. It's like it is playing on fast forward!

[MAF]

hello Ian, hows it going out there?

just posted the current warning map ^

[MAF]

watch #284 issued

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0284.html

[Stu]

Just got back to OKC - it is 02:15am here - so much for our "mini chase" which ended up at 588 miles! However we did get on the storm of the day which was not bad considering that we started out from Oklahoma city at 15:10pm.

I will post up a chase account in the morning - However this was one hell of an HP beast that had some of the strongest INFLOW !!!! winds that I have ever seen - In Lewis (east of Jetmore) power poles were being blown down as well as roofs being ripped off houses - I called in the wind damge reports to the NWS and estimated the winds to be sustianed > 70 - 90 mph (I have a good estimate of wind speed/damage from all my hurricane intercepts over the years)

[Cakie]

I saw this report about a Tornado yesterday

N Carolina Tornado

1 person killed and 3 injured. Take care you lot

[Louby]

Can't believe I have missed soo much of it already lots of reading to do to catch up on me thinks...

as Katie says take care you lot