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Day 11 - Discussion


ian cameron

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Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    SPC Have a slight risk for today with a 2% Tornado Risk in Southern & Western Kansas also parts of the Panhandle

    This would put us out of position for dropping off the guests at DFW Tomorrow so we are getting a personal tour of the SPC In Norman with Howie Bluestien before heading south towards Decatur for overnight before begrudgingly saying goodbye tomorrow to the Tour 1 Guests.

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire, England
  • Location: Leicestershire, England

    After looking at this I am firmly believing that there could be a nice supercell (poss Tornadic) over the Panhandles later today. I like the Triple point around Dodge city - but I have to start finish from OKC as I have new guests to scoop up ready for the start of tomorrows tour.

    Ether way - it is May, I am in Oklahoma, good 500mb flow across the panhandles - and I am not going to sit in a hotel -I have got to go and chase :lol:

    I will be setting off @15:00pm local

    BTW

    RUC2 EHI forecast for 00z today.

    post-108-1210274115_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    current SPC/NOAA Watches

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

    looks like the guys will be away from the possible tornado action

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA

    NORTHWEST GEORGIA

    EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

    SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Gah.. I so nearly didn't chase yesterday and was going to head up to Kansas instead, but blew it off once I saw the tor probs for yesterday and today's discussion. Now there are 2 awesome looking tornadic supecells out in the Kansas plains barely moving and I'm 10 hours away :lol: Why the hell do I not go with my isntincts on these things as I was even considering Goodland as a starting location. It usually works out ok when I do my own thing. As it is, I've blown an almost certain chance to be on those cells by driving 7 hours east yesterday :)

    Somebody slap the SPC forecaster who was on call yesterday whilst they are up in Norman :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Stu seems to be driving hard to get there.(Western Kansas).

    Lets hope he makes it in time to see some action. Tornados already reported!

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

    c

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    this looks good

    IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW

    278...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

    NOAA/SPC

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0313 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

    Gorky, take it easy, you win some, you lose some ;)

    Enjoy the SPC visit folks, I expect that is going to be awesome! And really, to experience the place I guess you need to be there when things are happening and the place is in full flow!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado warnings For Kansas

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

    337 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

    KSC109-199-203-082200-

    O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080508T2200Z

    WICHITA KS-LOGAN KS-WALLACE KS-

    437 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/

    FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE...SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND NORTH

    CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTIES...

    AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

    INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

    RUSSELL SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

    THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

    RUSSELL SPRINGS AROUND 445 PM CDT..

    TornadoWarning - 08/2245Z

    WFUS53 KDDC 082200

    TORDDC

    KSC055-101-171-082245-

    O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0003.080508T2200Z-080508T2245Z

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

    500 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

    WESTERN LANE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

    SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

    * UNTIL 545 PM CDT

    * AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF

    SHALLOW WATER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

    GRIGSTON...

    MANNING...

    AMY...

    RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHERN FINNEY...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND

    WESTERN LANE COUNTIES.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    am keeping an eye on this NL. they are suggesting things may be upgraded for the Eastern area now.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    am keeping an eye on this NL. they are suggesting things may be upgraded for the Eastern area now.

    The SPC have already upgraded chances of tornadoes in Kansas from 0% this morning to 5% now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    The SPC have already upgraded chances of tornadoes in Kansas from 0% this morning to 5% now.

    The storm north of Garden City seems to be increasing in intensity with a definite hook in its tail. I wonder if there is a tornado on the ground now- certainly the relative motion analysis is interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    yep watch 281

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    ;) 3" hail
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Looks ominous for the small town of Jetmore (about 1,000 people) as this supercell dives southeast with a hook echo suggesting F2-3 tornado. Just two counties north and one county west of Greensburg, and like that town, the county seat.

    I hope Stu made it to this storm, if any chasers read this, be careful of an acceleration southeastward. This is starting to show later MCS tendencies that could sweep activity towards n.w. OK this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    thanks Roger

    current status of watch #282

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

    GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

    SPARTANBURG SOUTH CAROLINA.

    NOAA/SPC
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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    I'm going to guess it isn't tornado producing at this time. Mike Umschield of Dodge city NWS is on the storm, and I'm sure the tornado warnings would state if one was on the ground. Much like the Roswell storm of a few days, I suspect it is pretty classic looking but slightly elevated resulting in more of hail threat, but with just enough possibility for breif spinups that they really have to keep the Tor warning on it. Still, these type of storms are probably my favourite of all of them as the structure cannot be beaten. I'd imagine this storm has been absolutely beautiful during most of it's life.

    Also, Stu is now only 30-40 miles away and given the terrain, I wouldn't be surprised if he could see the base of the storm already. In this area, you can feasibly see the top of a big storm 300 miles away ;)

    The latest radar update shows very large returns in the hook area. Sometimes this might be assosciated with debris, but at this range from the radar, I suspect it is signs of an immense updraft. I could see some massive hail reports come in from jetmore in the enxt 15 mins. It looks like Mike and another chaser are in Jetmore itself, probably looking to ride out the hail under shelter. If they don't move, I think we can be sure there is no imminent tor threat.

    ...and as I say that, they both bugger off ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
    Also, Stu is now only 30-40 miles away and given the terrain, I wouldn't be surprised if he could see the base of the storm already. In this area, you can feasibly see the top of a big storm 300 miles away ;)

    Stu is just behind Roger Hill, they look like they're heading towards a storm now, is that the one you mean or is there something else beyond that?

    Looks like they're going pretty fast!

    http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    Stu is just behind Roger Hill, they look like they're heading towards a storm now, is that the one you mean or is there something else beyond that?

    Looks like they're going pretty fast!

    http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

    Cor blimey I have never seen clouds form as quick as on Stu's chasecam. It's like it is playing on fast forward!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire, England
  • Location: Leicestershire, England

    Just got back to OKC - it is 02:15am here - so much for our "mini chase" which ended up at 588 miles! However we did get on the storm of the day which was not bad considering that we started out from Oklahoma city at 15:10pm.

    I will post up a chase account in the morning - However this was one hell of an HP beast that had some of the strongest INFLOW !!!! winds that I have ever seen - In Lewis (east of Jetmore) power poles were being blown down as well as roofs being ripped off houses - I called in the wind damge reports to the NWS and estimated the winds to be sustianed > 70 - 90 mph (I have a good estimate of wind speed/damage from all my hurricane intercepts over the years)

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Can't believe I have missed soo much of it already ;) lots of reading to do to catch up on me thinks...

    as Katie says take care you lot

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