Day 13 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Moderate Risk for Saturday 10th May - Looks like quite an active day for the Team with 15% Tornado Risk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN OK...NERN

TX...THE SRN 2/3 OF AR...NRN LA...EXTREME SWRN TN...MUCH OF

MS...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL AR...AND EXTREME W CENTRAL GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS

THIS PERIOD...AS THREE DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS -- ONE MOVING

INTO THE PAC NW...ONE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A THIRD

SLOWLY VACATING THE NORTHEAST -- WILL SHIFT FROM W-E THROUGH THE

PERIOD.

THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE/CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL

BE THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH AND A MORE SUBTLE/LEAD WAVE -- COMPRISED

OF SEVERAL SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMA -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE E-W FROM SC

WWD ACROSS NRN GA/NRN AL/NRN MS/SRN AR AND THEN NWWD TO A BROAD

SURFACE LOW CENTERED INVOF NWRN OK. THIS BROAD LOW IS FORECAST TO

SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO NWRN MO BY 11/00Z...WITH A TRAILING

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SRN

PLAINS BEHIND THIS LOW. AS THE FRONT REACHES WRN MO/ERN OK/N TX...A

DRYLINE WILL LIKELY HAVE MIXED EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...

THE W-E FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL HAVE BEGUN LIFTING A

BIT NWD ON ITS WRN FRINGE AS A WARM FRONT...AS THE LOW PROGRESSES

EWD.

THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THIS LOW SHOULD BEGIN

DEEPENING RAPIDLY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM INTENSIFIES/EVOLVES INTO A

CLOSED LOW. BY THE END THE PERIOD...A ROUGHLY 990 MB LOW SHOULD LIE

INVOF CENTRAL IL...WITH AN ARCING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SWRN

INDIANA SWD INTO MIDDLE TN...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN AL/MS AND

INTO SWRN LA/THE WRN GULF/DEEP S TX.

EACH OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES -- THE COLD FRONT...THE

DRYLINE...AND THE W-E STATIONARY/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST

STATES -- EACH SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM

DEVELOPMENT.

...SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...

SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD BUT COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY TO

UNFOLD THIS PERIOD...ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERN QUARTER OF

THE U.S. FROM SERN KS/ERN OK/E TX EWD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES

THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD ZONE OF 60 TO 70 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS -- S OF THE CENTRAL

U.S. TROUGH -- WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD INTO THE SERN

QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY...ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/. THIS WILL RESULT IN

MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES

THROUGH MIDDAY. BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT 3000 TO 4000 J/KG

MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TX DRYLINE...AND 1500 TO 2500

J/KG ACROSS ERN OK/SRN AR/LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF THE W-E

BOUNDARY.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF

OK/N TX WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL

JET...FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE W-E BOUNDARY

FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH VERY STRONG

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD RAPIDLY

ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE...WITH A COMPLEX/MIXED STORM MODE EXPECTED.

WHILE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE

DRYLINE TOWARD CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GREATEST SEVERE

THREAT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FROM SERN OK/NERN

TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SWRN TN/MS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET

SHIFTS EWD AND STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL

GULF COAST REGION. ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION IN STORM

COVERAGE...INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL

SUPPORT LONG-LIVED/INTENSE SUPERCELLS. WHERE STORMS MERGE INTO

CLUSTERS...THE VERY STRONG/SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE

THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING/BOWING STORM

SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

FINALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE W-E

SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL

ROTATION...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE/DAMAGING TORNADOES

WILL ALSO EXIST.

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT

CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE

SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME THE

MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY EVOLVE.

GIVEN VERY FAST FLOW ALOFT...A DERECHO EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS

THE GULF COAST REGION. SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE

SC/GA COASTS OVERNIGHT GIVEN FAST-MOVING STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS.

[Roger J Smith]

Comparing the guidance to the maps, I have to wonder if a lot of the severe weather in the max risk zone will occur after sunset Saturday, as the forcing wave rapidly moves east after 00z.

This might be one concern about moving to eastern Arkansas or anywhere east of Longview for that matter.

I also wonder if the risk box depicted is not initiated too far east as the front will only be accelerating from western OK and central TX after 18z. There could be some tornadic storms in the DFW area around 19-21z as this event gets going.

Just thought I would mention this now because I am not sure when I will be looking at the 12z guidance.

Certainly agree that the high risk box will get a hammering in the period of the forecast, but that runs to Sunday 12z ... and much of the active weather could develop after 02z for AR, LA, TN and MS.

There seems to be quite a surge of very warm air moving north in the Midland-Odessa region, where it is up around 25 C at 0200 local time. This also argues for early development of severe storms, I think they will begin to develop from around Clinton OK to Childress TX 17-18z and proceed rapidly east from there.

[NL]

Moderate risk has an extention upgrade.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0405 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO/MUCH OF AR/SOUTHERN

IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL/MUCH OF GA

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 100905Z - 101100Z

A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. AN INITIAL /06Z/ MODERATE RISK EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE

ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS

MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXPANDED NORTH/EASTWARD WITH THE UPCOMING 13Z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE NORTH EXTENT...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE

POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TODAY...WITH

RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECTED EXPANSION OF THE 13Z MODERATE

RISK WOULD NOW INCLUDE FAR EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN

MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN

AL/MUCH OF GA. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL BE ISSUED

SHORTLY.

[NL]

MD issued.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0736 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST

MO AND WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101236Z - 101500Z

RISK FOR LARGE HAIL /AND PERHAPS EVEN DAMAGING WINDS/ APPEARS LIKELY

TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS

CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN AR

AND SOUTHWEST MO. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING.

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE GRADUALLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF A MID

LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH

CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTENING/CLOUD TOP COOLING OCCURRING EARLY

THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL

PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ARE SAMPLING A 40+ KT

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS TX/OK INTO KS. AS LOW TO

MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO

MARKEDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STORMS APPEAR LIKELY

TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH 15Z-18Z ACROSS

CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS/MO/AR.

MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SAMPLE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS ACROSS TX/OK EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STEEP /8.0-8.5 C PER

KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z NORMAN RAOB...WITH

3500 J/KG MUCAPE ATOP A CONSIDERABLY MOISTENED 850 MB LAYER...WITH

THE IMPLICATION THAT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 12Z RAOB FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH EXHIBITED

SIMILAR POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OF 3700 J/KG MUCAPE...ALTHOUGH A STOUT

CAP WAS OBSERVED AT 850 MB.

WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /45-55 KT/ AND QUICKLY

INCREASING/NORTH-SPREADING INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE...MID LEVEL

ROTATION WILL LIKELY BE ATTAINED RATHER QUICKLY AFTER STORM

INITIATION. THUS...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY AS

THE MORNING WEARS ON. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE

BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED

OUT /ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING/ GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE

OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.

..GUYER.. 05/10/2008

[stevestorms]

we are in mac calister east Oklahoma dont know what plans are we ahve chain saws at the ready :-) fingers crossed for a good day, good luck Paul and team.

[Paul Sherman]

NOAA Weather radio warning of a Dangerous Day ahead today, so take care teams, We certainly will NOT Be core punching today with the risk of Strong and Damaging Tornadoes likely. Temp here is unbearable with 80c and a Dewpoint of 73c B)

Good luck today Steve, today has all the hallmarks of going HIGH Risk and picking a chase target is an absolute mare when the Moderate risk covers thousands of square miles B) Still looking over Models and still scratching my head!

Paul S

[grab my graupel]

NOAA Weather radio warning of a Dangerous Day ahead today, so take care teams, We certainly will NOT Be core punching today with the risk of Strong and Damaging Tornadoes likely. Temp here is unbearable with 80c and a Dewpoint of 73c B)

Good luck today Steve, today has all the hallmarks of going HIGH Risk and picking a chase target is an absolute mare when the Moderate risk covers thousands of square miles Still looking over Models and still scratching my head!

Paul S

Hi Paul..... fantastic to hear that you have the opportunity today to get amongst some real action B)

Could be a very spectacular day by the sound of things.

And there was me thinking that it is far too hot here with temps 0f 25.2c and a Dew point of 4.0c B)

Brian

[Nick F]

I think today we will need total concentration on what's going on around us, wouldn't like to be without the Barons on a potentially dangerous day like today, with the potential for strong tornadoes.

After some breakfast at IHOP, I think we will head north to Texakarna then follow the I-30 towards Little Rock and see what happens in the central/southern Arkansas area, ideally we want to chase the storms that form on the warm front over the flatter plain areas of central and southern Arkansas and keep away from the mountains to the N and NW of the State. Going east into Louisiana is a no-no, as like here, there are forests of tall trees lining the roads.

[chionomaniac]

NOAA Weather radio warning of a Dangerous Day ahead today, so take care teams, We certainly will NOT Be core punching today with the risk of Strong and Damaging Tornadoes likely. Temp here is unbearable with 80c and a Dewpoint of 73c B)

Good luck today Steve, today has all the hallmarks of going HIGH Risk and picking a chase target is an absolute mare when the Moderate risk covers thousands of square miles B) Still looking over Models and still scratching my head!

Paul S

Where are you now and what is the most important factor when choosing where to go when the at risk area is so vast?

I'm going to pin the tail somewhere between El Dorado and Greenville from looking at the nw charts.

Good Luck and stay safe.

c

edit seeing NF post terrain is very important

Edited May 10, 2008 by chionomaniac

[Paul Sherman]

Brian it has barely passed 9am and the Dewpoint is rapidly catching the Temperature with 75c now. Nearly 100% Humidity as well. Going to haul out soon and head North East towards the lifting warm front that has already triggered some small storms.

Paul S

[stevestorms]

Understand that Paul its a big I have a problem area weather channel are indicating poss outbreak day today as well as tomorrrow, cant say where we will be going as we are not involved the the planning so will just have to leave it to Charles and Cloud9 you peeps at home can see where we are http://www.cloud9tours.com/chasecam/

[Paul Sherman]

Where are you now and what is the most important factor when choosing where to go when the at risk area is so vast?

I'm going to pin the tail somewhere between El Dorado and Greenville from looking at the nw charts.

Good Luck and stay safe.

c

edit seeing NF post terrain is very important

We are in Longview (Tx) the Chase terrain east and south of here is appalling, further North into the "Jungles" of SE Oklahoma is bad but there is a narrow window along I30 Heading onto the Arkansas Flat Plains (Kind of a Mini Front Range type scenario) The Warm front should be lifting North and along with the Cold Front catching it will create a Triple Point at around 6pm in W Arkansas. Pretty hard Eh ?? B)

[stevestorms]

Understand that Paul its a big ass problem area weather channel are indicating poss outbreak day today as well as tomorrrow, cant say where we will be going as we are not involved the the planning so will just have to leave it to Charles and Cloud9 you peeps at home can see where we are http://www.cloud9tours.com/chasecam/

Edited May 10, 2008 by stevestorms

[grab my graupel]

Brian it has barely passed 9am and the Dewpoint is rapidly catching the Temperature with 75c now. Nearly 100% Humidity as well. Going to haul out soon and head North East towards the lifting warm front that has already triggered some small storms.

Paul S

Hi Paul

Yes I have been to America at this time of year, and I know what those temps feel like compared with here.

It is extremely energy sapping, and you are constantly having to drink to stay hydrated. B)

It's a different world mate.

I wish I had the money to be with you guys, but with your excellent reports, at least I can Imagine I'm there with you.

Good luck guys, and I hope you have a successful chase today.

Brian B)

[Paul Sherman]

Chase Target finally sorted will be heading North East into Arkansas in the next 30 minutes to be there just after Lunchtime.

Wish us luck on what could be a potentially Good day!

Paul S

[grab my graupel]

Chase Target finally sorted will be heading North East into Arkansas in the next 30 minutes to be there just after Lunchtime.

Wish us luck on what could be a potentially Good day!

Paul S

Good luck all B)

[dogs32]

yes keep all the reports comming in and what your up to..very interesting read..

[NL]

Ello Paul, hows it for WiFi and cell phone coverage around Arkansas?

Will we need the 'Batphone' handy today?

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul

We have the Sprint card in Nicks Laptop now the others have gone home so can update you whilst we are on the road from now on. Dont know how good Arkansas is for signals though

Paul S

[MAF]

Chase Target finally sorted will be heading North East into Arkansas in the next 30 minutes to be there just after Lunchtime.

Wish us luck on what could be a potentially Good day!

Paul S

yep, good luck lads,

how long will you be on the road for approx??

[NL]

Cheers Paul, Good luck and stay safe can imagine a few PDS's will

be issued later today.

No doubt Arkansas tv stations will be streaming live weather coverage

here's a few station links.

http://www.todaysthv.com/

http://www.ktbs.com/

http://www.kait8.com/

http://www.ksla.com/

[Greyowl]

Good luck for today for all the teams. Stay safe, it sounds as though it could get a bit hairy out there.

[ian cameron]

Hi all

we are on the road at the mo racing to our target area the temp is 82 and rather cloudy, will try to keep you up to date as it happens

Ian

[Roger J Smith]

Had a look at the 12z guidance and 16z actuals.

I am keeping my fingers crossed for the southeast AR target, it's a crack the whip situation as the tropical air mass is diffusely edging north from LA and the actual warm front is probably still in n LA although a pseudo-warm front now exists across s/c AR. You can see a certain amount of convection above the stable layer from e OK through AR at present, let's hope it gets volatile early enough to be seen by chasers in daylight (in AR).

Further west, the actual dry line turning into a cold front is just east of SPS now and draped SW from there. Dew points remain 22-24 C as far west as MWL to ADM. A strong cold front is developing between Lubbock and Childress but will make only limited progress until 21z when the surface low deepens and reaches n.e. OK and s.e. KS.

Still thinking there will be a tornadic outbreak in the DFW area up into parts of s/c OK around 21z when the 500-mb PVA arrives over the scene. Hopefully for the chasers this will trigger downstream with the very strong jet above 500 mb and discrete cells will produce in e AR between 21z and sunset. Meanwhile the storms expected around DFW will move steadily east into sw AR and nw LA by about 01z and these could be quite severe. There is even a good potential for severe storms through central TX (where there's a presidential wedding outdoors ) towards San Antonio.

[NL]

Tornado watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 293

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHEAST KANSAS

SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF

BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF THE

WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL

WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE PATTERN. MOST

GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE

WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL

STORMS ARE ILKLEY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT BY

MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR

UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER

COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

FURTHERMORE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM

FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL AND

PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATER

THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.