Day 15 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

A pretty active 4 days coming up starting tomorrow with some fun with High Based Dryline Storms before a more active risk for Tuesday to Thursday.

...WEST TX...

DEVELOPING WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN

PROCESS IN EARNEST ACROSS SOUTH TX MONDAY. GREATEST RECOVERY WILL

LIKELY BE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...TOO LATE FOR

MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON

HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO SUGGEST STRONG HEATING SHOULD

REMOVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ERN BIG BEND REGION TOWARD THE TX SOUTH

PLAINS. WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ISOLATED VERY

HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF DEEP CONVECTION

CAN MATERIALIZE ACROSS THIS REGION.

- Tuesdays Risk

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Update of the Day 2 outlook seems to extend a little E/NE'wards tomorrow's thunderstorm area out of SW TX, high based elevated non-severe storms - but maybe worth it for the photo opportunities - won't put us too out of place for Tuesday's risk:

...SW THROUGH CNTRL TX...

DEVELOPING SELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS LEE LOW WILL

RESULT IN RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD THROUGH TX

BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG CAP. THIS WILL RESULT IN

MODERATE MUCAPE OVER S AND S CNTRL TX LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH

DESTABILIZATION SPREADING THROUGH CNTRL AND NORTH TX MONDAY EVENING

AND OVERNIGHT. IF CAP CAN BE BREACHED...HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL

BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING OVER SW TX ALONG

WRN EDGE OF RETURNING MOISTURE...POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN OF SW TX OR NRN MEXICO. IF STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL

EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT

ABOVE THE MID LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS CNTRL TX. GIVEN THE LIMITED

CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR

WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

I'm in the Macdonalds here off I think Exit 222. I was about to grab a bite to eat. I can sit around for a while if you want. Internet speed is pretty good here so I am just catching up on things at home

Ok, we are about 50-60 miles away east on the I-30, so we can meet you there at around 2.45pm

[tinybill]

Cool, I'll wait up for you then... The new update tempts me more to go for the TX stuff tomorow for sure

hi just looked here seens to be all arouned Clayton County,Bibb County,Laurens County,Tattnall County tp day be safe have fun

http://www.wunderground.com/tornado/

[Coast]

Looks like at least 18 people killed by tornados in the central states:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7394402.stm

Safety first guys!

[Stu]

Chance of a chase tomorrow in South West Nebraska on the high plains - *if* we can get any moisture up there..

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Stu

Good luck up there, the only reason we blew that off was for Tuesday's risk around Childress area, I guess you guys will play the SE Kansas storms on Tuesday ?? At least we will have both areas covered tomorrow. Cannot wait for more normal chase terrain after the horrendous conditions from Saturday.

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

I had a look at the 00z guidance, can't see much happening in w TX but would not be surprised if one interesting cell develops somewhere around Pecos River to Junction. Good luck with the western Nebraska idea, that could blow up just before 00z. Will check the 12z and perhaps have more of a clue then.

Tuesday looks potentially very promising in the TX-OK border area ... enjoy your rest guys.

[MAF]

Morning Guys, looking at the NOAA forecasts it seems tomorrow may hold a chance of a decent chase. hope you are all well and safe after the events of saturday

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7394402.stm

[nanu]

Every year i hear that towns name " Childress "

Must be storm chasers capital of america.. bet that place gets fed up with storm chasers every year, infact i dont think they have to check the local weather, "see a doppler radar going past.. u know the weathers gonna be bad"

When i retire, thats where i think i may move to.

[dogs32]

Hi Paul S,

I hope your saving some storms for me next year and not being greedy and having all the best this year..lol.

Sounds exciting the near miss one you all had..But Deadly of course

Hows Nick F?

we've missed his TS predictions here for the UK.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Dogs

Yep we are all really enjoying it and dont worry there will be plenty of Storms for next year, this place is crazy this year.

910 Tornadoes up to 11th May (Obviously a fair percentage of those will be Multiple reports) but this year is on for a Record Breaker. Looks like a quieter period coming up for the weekend though if the models are to be believed Although it looks like it could get lively again for the 22nd May onwards

Paul S

BTW - What we are trying to get today are Lightning shots as the Tornado Risk is almost non existant

[MAF]

whats your location Paul

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Mick

We are in Weatherford along the I20 West of DFW, So in a nice position for anything that overcomes the Cap Today, wont be venturing to far out of the way always with an eye on tomorrows risk which has some Tornadic potential. We drove the 400 + miles from Arkansas to here yesterday.

Paul S

[Mammatus]

Hi Dogs

Yep we are all really enjoying it and dont worry there will be plenty of Storms for next year, this place is crazy this year.

910 Tornadoes up to 11th May (Obviously a fair percentage of those will be Multiple reports) but this year is on for a Record Breaker. Looks like a quieter period coming up for next week though if the models are to be believed

Paul S

BTW - What we are trying to get today are Lightning shots as the Tornado Risk is almost non existant

Oh well, not meant to be this year, thats £2500 down the toilet I have been diagnosed with a heart problem anyway Paul, quite bad too have to go in for heart valve op. in 4 weeks time and I must not travel. Sorry to moan, but im *****d off I'm 28 and on the verge of a heart attack You just couldn't make it up, sums up my last year nicely CRAP

Gav (TA)

[MAF]

Hi Mick We are in Weatherford along the I20 West of DFW, So in a nice position for anything that overcomes the Cap Today, wont be venturing to far out of the way always with an eye on tomorrows risk which has some Tornadic potential. We drove the 400 + miles from Arkansas to here yesterday. Paul S

cheers mate, will check out the data for weatherford on NOAA/SPC

dont blame you for not wanting to venture too far. 400 miles driving is knac tiring

[Paul Sherman]

Gavin I have just Pm'd you.

**Just shows how mad the Models have been this year, now it looks like from the 22nd May onwards looks very Stormy**

Paul S

[pottyprof]

**Just shows how mad the Models have been this year, now it looks like from the 22nd May onwards looks very Stormy**

Paul S

OOOoooooooooooooo.. only a week and a bit to go then..

[MAF]

NOAA/SPC Outlook for Tuesday

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT

THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BUT AN

ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

looks good tomorrow for some decent chances to get some lightning shots

[MAF]

was just checking for any updates on the NOAA site and thought this map was good, such a variation of weather types over the USA

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif

[Nick F]

Going to be leaving our hotel in Weatherord, just west of Fort Worth very soon, we are planning to head SW-ward towards Brownwood or maybe as far as Brady, models and forecasts give a chance of some thunderstorms later on this evening and overnight moving up from Nern Mexico and the Big Bend/Rio Grande area. Hopefully get some night-time lightning photography which we have had little of so far.

Tomorrow we'll need to head N towards the red River for tomorrow's Slight risk of severe weather.

[MAF]

thanks for the update Nick. forecast looks promising for overnight lightning so hope you get some good shots with the background been dark. take care on those roads.

[Gorky]

Paul, I think you left a shirt at the motel here - white with a 9 on it. I'm just going to fill up at a nearby petrol station. Then go to walmart here in weatherford. Let me know if you want to come pick it up now otherwise I'll hold onto it.

[MAF]

dont you guys have mobiles

[Gorky]

Battery is out on mine, otherwise I'd call! I'm sure we'll bump into each other again anyways..

[MAF]

Battery is out on mine, otherwise I'd call! I'm sure we'll bump into each other again anyways..

but hopefully not in the cars.