Day 17 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0738 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND E TX INTO THE

LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AS A DEAMPLIFYING WAVE THIS PERIOD

AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/BC. THE NM

DISTURBANCE SHOULD REACH NE OK BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN

SEASONABLY STRONG WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND THE LWR

MS VLY.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IN N TX /ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE

CROSSING THE GRT LKS/ SHOULD CONTINUE S INTO CNTRL TX TODAY...WHILE

PORTION OF FRONT IN AR REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR RETREATS

SLIGHTLY NWWD. FARTHER W...COLD FRONT WITH NM UPR SYSTEM WILL REACH

W TX LATER THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS MOST OF

CNTRL/SE TX BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CNTRL/E TX INTO LWR MS VLY...

ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING NM UPR LOW...PRESENCE OF FAST /50-60

KT/ WSWLY MID LVL FLOW ON ITS SERN SIDE...AND AVAILABILITY OF RICH

GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FACTORS IN SUPPORT OF SVR WX ACROSS

PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY. HOWEVER... PRESENCE OF

ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COMPLICATE THE FCST.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

NOW OVER CNTRL TX AND NRN LA WILL SERIOUSLY IMPACT DIURNAL HEATING

OVER THE NERN THIRD OF TX...NRN LA AND PARTS OF MS. THE CNTRL TX

SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE AN EMBEDDED MCV. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE

INFLOW...THIS SUGGESTS THAT SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX COULD BE A

CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SVR/POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT AS THE SYSTEM

CONTINUES ENE LATER TODAY. SHEAR/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE

SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ BOWING SEGMENTS

WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. BOTH THE TX

COMPLEX...AND THE ONE IN LA...MAY STRENGTHEN AS HEATING OCCURS IN

THE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA/MS.

CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF THE TX MCS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING LATER

TODAY IN CNTRL TX. ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT

NEW STORM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF INCREASING WSWLY MID-LVL

FLOW AND ASCENT ALONG SERN FRINGE OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH. POCKETS

OF STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW ALONG

RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARIES COULD YIELD A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...IN

ADDITION TO STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

[NL]

SPC have now downgraded tornado probability to 5% but over

a wider part of Texas.

[Nick F]

Hi all,

We are currently headed to San Angelo, ETA of 3-4pm. Hoping for some intiation along dry line in the area.

Will report back later.

Nick

[NL]

Tornado watch for teams destination.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 319...

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SRN NM MOVING EWD COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL ELYS

ACROSS WATCH AREA PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.

WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING WITH HEATING AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO

AOA 1500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD VICINITY AND TO N OF

FRONTAL ZONE TO THE S OF MAF. SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND

POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

[Roger J Smith]

The situation looks conducive for severe storm development possibly a bit to the south of San Angelo, around Brady perhaps. My analysis:

The M cold front has sunk southwards and now straddles the NM-TX border west of Hobbs almost to El Paso then curls back north to a weak low. This sector will expand slightly with cool east winds and rain, creating some TRW activity along its leading edge mainly to the west of Wink TX.

The P front (leading edge of Gulf air) has stalled in a line from north of Austin to south of Brady but is edging back to the north. West of the Pecos River this feature almost disappears, but within the tropical air a weak dryline pushes slowly east. The zone for severe weather is likely to be along the stalling P front which separates 24 C dew points from the transitional 17 C values in the narrow ribbon of modified Pacific air that has circulated around and feeds into the complex system from the northeast. Would be looking for a line of severe storms oriented ENE-WSW and possibly showing some tendency to drift southwest once formed. Eventually, the colder air north of the M front will be pushing almost to the Mexican border so this set-up pretty much has to move south rather than staying in place.

Will post a more exact target once I get some feel for the radar at present.

[Roger J Smith]

Further to the above, would suggest Sonora to Junction to northwest of Kerrville as most likely area for later severe storm development. Another cluster is possible further west around Del Rio to Dryden north towards Iraan TX.

[ian cameron]

just to update we are heading West on the I20 we have just past Abilene with big spring being our revised target area

Ian

[NL]

Storms 35 mile west of Big Spring TX (teams new target)

Currently tops climbing to 30,000ft producing 1.50 inch hail and

heading E/NE around 25mph.

Latest visible satellite image.

[Roger J Smith]

Would recommend a close watch on cells west and southwest of San Angelo, the activity north of the I-10 may recede as the M front backdoors to the south (thundery onset of a steady rain in other words, watch for temp fall 25 to 22 and wind backing to NE as danger signs to head south) ... meanwhile the best looking cells I can find are west of Del Rio in old Mexico, heading for Del Rio. Eventually I think anywhere Sterling City to Brady may turn out to be the hit zone.

[NL]

Yup Roger a MD has been issued for that region.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0333 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 142033Z - 142100Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX

OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL

BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO

DEVELOP AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY

EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE

FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS

ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL TX AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN

APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN NM. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET

INCREASES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY

ALSO EXIST.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2008

[ian cameron]

we have visual on the super cell west of big spring it's a bit grungy at mo but we are realing her in looking good on barons hopefuly this will make up for yesterday but yet again the spc had it all wrong this morning were all glad we went with the models rather than where they had first predicted

Ian

[NL]

Tornado watch.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

LAREDO TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 320...WW 321...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED INTO WRN TX AHEAD OF UPPER LOW

OVER SERN NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR

SEVERE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL

TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

[NL]

Snyder is in for a hammering in the next 50mins or so off

that cell that the teams are on, Stu Robinson is streaming

live too http://www.severestudios.com/livechase.

The cell has TVS too.

[NL]

Cell the team and Stu are on(and others) now tornado warned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

443 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF

CUTHBERT...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 35

MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CUTHBERT...

WESTBROOK...

THE WARNED AREA INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND

210.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE

HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO... THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER

NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

[ian cameron]

we have just been watching this super cell trying to form a tornado we had clear rotation on the ground it just could not make it all the way then we got munched by hail bigger than golf size we thought our windows were going to explode with the impacts on our side windows we bombed south a mile and have some awesome pictures and hopefuly film for you all later we are preasently bombing east on the I20 chasing the cell again

shall post again soon

Ian

[Gorky]

I'm leaving Brady now to jump on the cell heading east just WNW of here. No net connection again, so I'm doing it by visual! :o

[Roger J Smith]

Gorky, hope this helps you ...

As of 2218z radar showed weak cells 2-5 miles north of Brady in east-west line.

Stronger hail-warned cell has passed San Angelo and moving ESE 40 mph, about half way to Brady now.

Another cell growing south of Brady with small area of heavy precip.

I think your target cell will track a bit south of Brady so try to keep roads open south if you head due west.

Added from 2225z radar ...

large cell just northwest of Eden (next county west) heading ESE may hit Brady about 40 mins from now, or just south

[NL]

Carefull Nathan just been tornado warned.

TornadoWarning - 14/2300Z

WFUS54 KSJT 142232

TORSJT

TXC095-327-142300-

O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0063.080514T2233Z-080514T2300Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

533 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTH CENTRAL MENARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF EDEN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENARD...MOVING

EAST AT 41 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

LIVE OAK BY 535 PM CDT...

EDEN BY 540 PM CDT...

US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE BY 545 PM CDT...

THE INTERSECTION OF US-87 AND RANCH ROAD 2134 BY 550 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO

BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE

BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. IF IN

MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL

SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL

1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Roger J Smith]

Tornadic storm about to hit Brady, about 5 miles west at 2220z

[Roger J Smith]

At 2328z the automatic weather station located just north of Brady reported 68 knot winds then went off the air due to a power failure. Radar showing strong rotation as the storm passed Brady.

The storm being chased by the main NW team accelerated ESE and is now south of Abilene. It has been producing tornado sightings intermittently for two hours or more.

[Gorky]

I'm in a very damp Lampesa atm. The rain has been biblical with lots of flooding everywhere. The storm was a beauty and I'll have to check still to see if it touched down, but there was a massive rotating wall cloud on the horizon when I first saw it. No idea if it was on the ground at that point. It became more high absed as it reaced Brady but still prompted a tor warning. I chased east through the precip but never cleared the core. Going to see what the new cell in Mason Couny is going to do before deciding whether to intercept. It may be too dark when it gets here. The structure was awesome with a crocodile mouth inflow band and very pronounced rotation.

[ian cameron]

what a day so many storms such a great chase day we had rotation on the ground we've gone through golf size hail or bigger we did not stop to see :o amazing up drafts structure shots some great landscapes dirt road driving it was likr the dukes of hazerd at times and as I write the disco tech that is the lightning storm is kicking off over my head bolts landing all around us we are just booking in to a motel in Lampasas for the night were in for a real treat

tonight

Ian

[Gorky]

Where are you in Lampasas? I'm at the Holiday Inn if you want to pick your shirt up :o

[Tom Lynch]

what a day so many storms such a great chase day we had rotation on the ground we've gone through golf size hail or bigger we did not stop to see amazing up drafts structure shots some great landscapes dirt road driving it was likr the dukes of hazerd at times and as I write the disco tech that is the lightning storm is kicking off over my head bolts landing all around us we are just booking in to a motel in Lampasas for the night were in for a real treat

tonight

Ian

Hi Ian

I am currenlty in a little town about 40 miles northwest of Oklahoma City. We have some thunder tonight, but wasn't chasing. Just resting after my flight. Will keep in touch during the week

Tom

[stevestorms]

ok this is my 3rd attempt at this post so will be brief as im getting anoyed with it disapearing off the dam screen!!! Brady Tx a probable Tornado Hurricane cat1 winds in Brady quote from Mike Tyise scary stuff as we drove through the hook echo, finshing with the most intense winds I have ever experenced as this 3rd monster and the strongest of the day went by us ---something --falls ?? cant remember, its late but man they were special.Oh we are in Austin Tx and have just had another severe Storm throw bolts at us which is funny cause we were all nearly killed in Brady earlier when a Bolt hit within a few feet of the group!!! ok its late I think this will be it for Pete Claire and I this year so catch yer all back in the UK , TA TA Stevestorms signing out from the USA for another year.