Days 18-23 Discussion

[Nick F]

Latest ECMWF Looking great for Mid Next Week until the end of May

"A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY

WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT WILL LIFT ABRUPTLY

NNE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW

FOR A FRONT TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS OR FRONT

RANGE. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT THIS

SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. STORMS MAY

DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AFTER THURSDAY. WILL THERE BE

ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LONGWAVE POSITION OVER THE

WESTERN UNITED STATES? THIS SEEMS LIKELY, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION

OF THIS TROUGH IS IN QUESTION

Latest Thoughts from Ed Berry looking like a Wedgefest for the Plains which should please our guests on the last tour!

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

[Gorky]

The GFS doesn't agree to the same extent, but the GFS showed a death ridge for the last week or so at the beginning of my trip. I'd take anythign the GFS says with a pinch of salt at the moment. The ECMWF was very good with it's upper level forecasting for the entire trip so it certainly looks very promising. One of the runs yesterday had a 975mb low in the NE/CO area I believe for next Thursday with a good setup for severe from KS to the Dakota's. Hope that that comes through for you 7 days out and only one model and it's probably changed since then. but I see it has been picked up by the Stormtrack guys. They are positively salivating at the thought aren't they Maybe I should miss my flight and get stuck here for a week or two more

[Andy Bown]

Thanks for all the reports, updates, photos and videos so far guys :lol: . The drivers probably deserve a few quieter days, but even on quieter days I guess there may be the odd storm around?

[Paul Sherman]

Mid next week until at least the end of Memorial Weekend looking incredible from latest runs Looks like Kansas and Nebraska is going to get a battering, Tornadoes should be plentiful and this could be the Outbreak of the Year we have been waiting for. Yaaaaayyyyy!

Great Chase terrain as well, all Models coming into line now for a Big Trough which just stays in the plains for days on end!

The last chase team are certainly going to get their Moneys worth!

Paul S

[Gorky]

The ECMWF is a great model if you are out there in the next few weeks It's been very consistent on it's plans for this next trough for the last week or so. It has admittedly been a complete outlier at times but most models seem to be trending towards the 'Euro' model. I'd be interested on seeing UKMET upper wind forecasts for 7 days but I'm not sure they are available. From past experience with tracking tropical cyclones, whose paths are very dependant on upper troughs and ridges, the UKMET and 'Euro' both seem to be very good at the longer ranges, whilst the GFS struggles a bit in comparison... It seems us brits can forecast for the US better than they can at the moment (ECMWF is based in Reading for what it's worth!)

[johnholmes]

interesting comments after storm chasing over there mate. NOAA are often to be read as being happier with the ECMWF output than their own GFS.

[stevestorms]

Morning guys, I thought we were done! but Cloud9 Pete Clair and meself will be at Rockys Bar-b-q, Tom Lynch is coming along with Dave Ewoldt hope to see you there :lol:

[Tom Lynch]

Morning guys, I thought we were done! but Cloud9 Pete Clair and meself will be at Rockys Bar-b-q, Tom Lynch is coming along with Dave Ewoldt hope to see you there

Phew that was a close call, we have just had gust of wind which reached 6 mph. I was in danger of losing my boxers. The aveage wind speed currently is 1.4

Dave though we should put out a warning.

Tom

[Tom Lynch]

Phew that was a close call, we have just had gust of wind which reached 6 mph. I was in danger of losing my boxers. The aveage wind speed currently is 1.4

Dave though we should put out a warning.

Tom

URGENT WARNING

A small cloud has just been spotted drifting over Okarche , Oklahoma. This report comes from a trained weather spotter.

Tom

[ian cameron]

Hi all we are currently heading south east on US 70 to roswell waiting for a cell to come over us hopeing for some lightning cells are popping up around us so we are fairly hopeful shall post again soon to update you were we are

Ian

[Mammatus]

Mid next week until at least the end of Memorial Weekend looking incredible from latest runs Looks like Kansas and Nebraska is going to get a battering, Tornadoes should be plentiful and this could be the Outbreak of the Year we have been waiting for. Yaaaaayyyyy!

Great Chase terrain as well, all Models coming into line now for a Big Trough which just stays in the plains for days on end!

The last chase team are certainly going to get their Moneys worth!

Paul S

Certainly are Paul

The models I'm looking at show one of the strongest High pressure cells in living memory across Kansas and Nebraska.

[MAF]

Hi all we are currently heading south east on US 70 to roswell waiting for a cell to come over us hopeing for some lightning cells are popping up around us so we are fairly hopeful shall post again soon to update you were we are Ian

yep, let us know you arive safely. hope you get some good lightning shots out of it

[ian cameron]

Hi all we are now on our way to Plainview TX we have been chasing rain shaft storms not to disimiler to the storms you get in the UK, has been a pleasent day so far not so much action however some of the landscape has been amazing we were 4900 feet above sea level over looking cavens just south of san jon in NM some great views there will post again soon

Ian

[Paul Sherman]

Models still showing a Huge Trough over the West. Latest runs are actually better IMO as the Chase terrain will be better if the Low is held up and we wont all end up in the Trees of Arkansas, as Gavin pointed out 3 or 4 days of Moisture return under the High pressure influence will trap all that energy before it all goes BOOM!

Looking forward to the Middle to end of next week.

Paul S

[MAF]

Hi all we are now on our way to Plainview TX we have been chasing rain shaft storms not to disimiler to the storms you get in the UK, has been a pleasent day so far not so much action however some of the landscape has been amazing we were 4900 feet above sea level over looking cavens just south of san jon in NM some great views there will post again soon Ian

i am not jealous!!!

*you lucky lucky lot!!

[AndyNEEssex]

Models still showing a Huge Trough over the West. Latest runs are actually better IMO as the Chase terrain will be better if the Low is held up and we wont all end up in the Trees of Arkansas, as Gavin pointed out 3 or 4 days of Moisture return under the High pressure influence will trap all that energy before it all goes BOOM!

Looking forward to the Middle to end of next week.

Paul S

Hi Paul,

Currently in Panama City, FL, just after winning 5-3 playing at leftback for 90 mins in the Floridian Heat!! The Weather Channel are certainly going fo midweek onwards - Just as well i'm getting to Dallas on Tuesday eh???

Take care and see you soon,

Andy

[Paul Sherman]

Had a nice day with Uk Style Thunderstorms today and found a great Scenic Outlook called the Caprock Ampitheatre

- The now Battered Stormchase Wagon tasting New Mexico for the 1st time in 2008

- Caprock Ampitheatre North of Clovis (New Mexico) 4,900 feet asl

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Caprock Ampitheatre North of Clovis (New Mexico) 4,900 feet asl

Paul Sherman

What a Fantastic View.. Stunning!!

[MAF]

morning Roger. whats your view on the coming week? any specific area that stands the better chances of tornaidic activity, or is it just pot luck?

[Nick F]

Another state under my belt today, New Mexico! Here's a group photo of Ian, Paul and I at the NM border:

Pretty shallow convection to what we are normally used to in the mid-west:

Like Paul Sherman mentioned, great view from the Cap Rock Ampitheatre:

After the view, we followed the cells south and they produced some Cgs near Clovis.

[Rustynailer]

Lovely view from the top of the amphitheater. The UK type storms are there just to make you homesick

Currently after a few dull days, I am experiencing occasional sunny spells and an absolutely breathtaking temperature of 11C. I have a jumper on. The garden has stopped growing. We have had the chance of UK type storms for days...The highlight for me was one rumble of thunder near by and a few very distant rumbles. I abandoned what I was doing and ran to the computer to report my dazzling observations on the convective thread

To cap it all I had a steak, a very British steak, you know the sort you need visual assistance to find on the plate among the chips and peas...

Russ

[Paul Sherman]

Models now starting to come into Line with each other, so Thursday looks like the start of the Outbreak, could still squeeze a Wednesday Chase out of this lovely Feature, will pick Andy up on Tuesday and head North quite rapidly. Also having just looked at the Models this could be just Round 1 of Severe Weather with a few days of re-charge before another System Smashes into the Plains 27th-30th Timescale. Chase Heaven! :o :o

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0337 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS -- THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH

RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE

PERIOD -- PERSIST IN SUGGESTING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SEVERE

POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE

UPCOMING WEEK. BOTH DEVELOP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. AND

SUBSTANTIAL NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS

STARTING DAY 4. WHILE SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD

REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND THEREFORE EXPECT BOTH THE

KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE

STORMS.

DIFFICULTY PERSISTS...HOWEVER...IN NARROWING DOWN THE REGION OF

GREATER THREAT -- BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY -- DUE TO MODEL

DIFFERENCES. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST DAYS 5-7

/I.E. THU. MAY 22 THROUGH SAT. MAY 24/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL

AND NRN PLAINS. THE GFS -- WHICH DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER E

THAN THE ECMWF -- WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL NEB ALONG

ERN FRINGES OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...THE

ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A PRIMARY THREAT AREA FURTHER WWD -- ACROSS THE

CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME E OF

A SHARPER LEE TROUGH/LOW. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA FOR

DAYS 5-7 ACROSS MUCH OF KS/NEB AND INTO PARTS OF ERN CO/ERN WY --

COVERING PORTIONS OF THE ENVELOPE ENCLOSING SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH

MODELS.

[AndyNEEssex]

Models now starting to come into Line with each other, so Thursday looks like the start of the Outbreak, could still squeeze a Wednesday Chase out of this lovely Feature, will pick Andy up on Tuesday and head North quite rapidly. Also having just looked at the Models this could be just Round 1 of Severe Weather with a few days of re-charge before another System Smashes into the Plains 27th-30th Timescale. Chase Heaven! :o

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0337 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS -- THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH

RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE

PERIOD -- PERSIST IN SUGGESTING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SEVERE

POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE

UPCOMING WEEK. BOTH DEVELOP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. AND

SUBSTANTIAL NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS

STARTING DAY 4. WHILE SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD

REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND THEREFORE EXPECT BOTH THE

KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE

STORMS.

DIFFICULTY PERSISTS...HOWEVER...IN NARROWING DOWN THE REGION OF

GREATER THREAT -- BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY -- DUE TO MODEL

DIFFERENCES. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST DAYS 5-7

/I.E. THU. MAY 22 THROUGH SAT. MAY 24/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL

AND NRN PLAINS. THE GFS -- WHICH DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER E

THAN THE ECMWF -- WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL NEB ALONG

ERN FRINGES OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...THE

ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A PRIMARY THREAT AREA FURTHER WWD -- ACROSS THE

CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME E OF

A SHARPER LEE TROUGH/LOW. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA FOR

DAYS 5-7 ACROSS MUCH OF KS/NEB AND INTO PARTS OF ERN CO/ERN WY --

COVERING PORTIONS OF THE ENVELOPE ENCLOSING SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH

MODELS.

Sweet!!!! :o

Looks like I'm going to be a very lucky boy!!

[Paul Sherman]

Andy

The US Chasers are bigging this event up Big Time, looks like there could be quite an outbreak and if Saturday (Memorial Day) verifies then there could be some serious Chaser Traffic Jams :o :o

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=16512

Paul S

[tornadomanuk]

Great photos and reports there Paul/Nick F, thanks for posting :o Even the shallow convection looks stunning over there!