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Days 18-23 Discussion


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland

Lads, whats the name of those Onion Rings we substituted for breakfast the odd time. Trying to find them back here. Starting to suffer withdrawals!

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Lads, whats the name of those Onion Rings we substituted for breakfast the odd time. Trying to find them back here. Starting to suffer withdrawals!

Please tell me they don't do Ringo's in the USA :o

Edited by Rustynailer
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Not sure if this fits into any longer-term plans, but there could be some action late Monday in western KS as a fairly strong short wave is dropping almost SSE from MT towards e KS. However if people have to be in Dallas on Tuesday, seems like a long drive for a fairly low probability outcome. Isolated TRW+ possible ne CO and nw KS would be about it.

Later in the week it certainly does look quite good. There's a developing severe cell northwest of Calgary AB if Rich happens to be reading this. The front that would activate for w KS is across central MT into nw WY at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
I think thats them Rustynailer. Well nearly 90% certain. Yellow pack, yummy! Can you get them in the UK? :o

Haven't seen those things for years...Yummy.

Just had a google :o I don't think they are available in the UK anymore :) Gutted :)

Correction:- They are available in multi-pack at some supermarkets. mmmmmmm.

Edited by Rustynailer
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hot, dry pattern setting up across nw TX and most of OK, e CO and sw KS ... fairly strong front moving south rapidly from ne WY to w SD, should reach n/c KS by 18z and then fan out into arc running approx Hill City to Salina KS, whether it forces any other action further south in the largely dry trough remains to be seen, rather doubt it but it is possible one or two isolated storms could develop in TX and OK ... best chance for storm chase would probably be about 30-50 miles northeast of Dodge City KS.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Looking like after we pick up Andy on Tuesday we are going to attempt a Chase in Wyoming on Wednesday afternoon and evening, will aim for Dodge City for Tuesday night so after driving to DFW Will have to drive for another 500 miles to get near to target area

post-24-1211210820_thumb.png

And then what to say about Thursday to Saturday, well these set-ups are pretty rare and it looks like Multiple severe weather days along the Dryline, the dryline advances east every day and then settles back west overnight, this repeats itself day after day until the pattern is dis-lodged. Multiple Supercells are possible on these days, Dave Ewoldt has said these can be prolific Tornado Producers. ;) :o ;) :lol:

post-24-1211210330_thumb.png

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0359 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE/OMEGA-BLOCK-TYPE

PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO LINGER

OVER THE WEST UPSTREAM OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5-6. WHILE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH RESPECT

TO THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN -- WHICH COULD

BEGIN AS EARLY AS DAY 7 -- SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS APPARENT OVER

THE HIGH PLAINS DAYS 4-6.

A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAY 4 ACROSS

THE PLAINS...THOUGH STRONG RIDGE -- AND THUS SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING --

SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SUPPRESSED WWD NEAR A HIGH PLAINS

DRYLINE. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR

ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT FOR SEVERE

STORMS IS EVIDENT. WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE

THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER E THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH AGREE THAT

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE WITHIN A ROUGHLY

200 MILE-WIDE AREA CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS...WILL

MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS...AND EXPAND THE AREA SWD THIS FORECAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF

NM AND W TX.

Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

That outlook looks great, surely going to get some great chasing eh! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

It is looking rather nice... WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP!!!!!! :lol: :o

Some fun to be bagged if it all plays ball.. Fingers crossed guys!! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Bone dry set-up today with the heat trough already through most of KS (guidance yesterday too slow) and reaching Tulsa to OKC later this afternoon. Slight risk of some thunderstorm development in n.e. OK but more likely to remain dry, as temps soar towards 100 F across most of TX and OK. Gulf moisture almost absent, but the set-up gradually changes to an excellent risk by Thursday to Sunday, central to western NE and southwest SD looking best.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Looking good for you guys in another few days, I must admit i am feeling a little jealous, no im lying, very jealous, of the projected severe weather pattern. :lol: Stay safe and send us some great pics! Best Wishes Ian.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

Monday 19th May

Lightning spotted "praise the lord" We have visited Dave Ewoldt's local bar. Eischens's Bar. A good day was had by all. It was 97F outside so we had to keep cool. post-2466-1211262778_thumb.jpg

Ian attempted to assist the bar by taking on the local chickens

post-2466-1211263219_thumb.jpg

I have to report that Ian shared his room with a cowboy from Texas. We can't go much more into that. If you want to know more ask his mother, she may be the first to want to know.

post-2466-1211262984_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Counting and saving my pennies up for the chase next year :D:D :D :D

putting budweiser money by now :D

counting the days down..well months...I will have to do some more jiggaloeing to get more money

Anyone got any idea how much camera memory I will need...10.GB enough?

like the pics..waiting for Thursday..its gone boring the weather here

whos the guy on the left top pic..havent seen him before

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Off for our trip down to DFW To pick up Andy and then we have to retrace our steps back up to Oklahoma City and then onwards to Woodward and finally finishing just before Midnight at Dodge City (Kansas) a pretty long drive and the equivalent in the Uk would be from London to Inverness and Back again in 1 day :D:D

We will awake early tomorrow and head NW Towards Wyoming for the Risk of Isolated Supercells on Wednesday, from there on in it looks like 3-4 days of Severe Weather on the dryline.

Paul S & Team

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire, England
  • Location: Leicestershire, England

I am currently in Oklahoma City, but this afternoon I am flying to Denver where I meet up with a documentary crew from the UK (CH4) for an active few days chasing. Note that I am chasing on my own (solo) for my final week and I DO expect to see more tornadoes.

*currently* the game plan is as follows (subject to refinement)

Wednesday – Wyoming, Wheatland on I20 but I am also watching the Texas panhandle for this day – if the cap brakes then watch it!

Thursday – SE NB / NW/KS – no brainer – head for the triple point for meaty wedges moving north at 20 mph

Friday - Same as above but a tad further south – (meaty wedges moving north at 20 mph)

Saturday – Texas panhandle – again – (meaty wedges moving north at 20 mph)

Sunday – TBA

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Good luck with the solo chasing Stu ... must be nice having the rein to do your own thing! Liking the prospect of meaty wedges ... does look a classic slow moving pattern. No more chasing storms east of the I-35 into the jungles and hills ;)

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

evening guys found this sounds like the end of the week could get a bit lovely

SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...STORMS HEAD BACK TO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE EAST KICKS OUT OF HERE BY THE WEEKEND.

The cold vortex over the eastern part of the country will eventually kick out by this weekend, giving much of the East and Great Lakes a beautiful weekend. In the meantime, the wave of low pressure riding the base of the trough is producing chilly rain across the mid-Atlantic this morning. The cold front associated with that low pressure system will move across the Southeast this afternoon. The air mass ahead of the front has become warm and somewhat humid with dew points in the 60s from the Carolinas back into Alabama. We will see a line of a storms develop along the front from near Norfolk back into the central Carolinas, central Georgia and east-central Alabama by late afternoon. The main threat with the storms will be wind damage and hail, especially the storms across the Carolinas.

In the West, the ridge that has produced the very warm weather will be replaced by an upper-level trough by Thursday. That means cooler and unstable weather across the western part of the country. It also means that severe storms will develop along the eastern edge of the trough across the High Plains by Thursday. While we have the risk of severe storms across parts of eastern Wyoming Wednesday afternoon, the dry line that develops across the High Plains from Nebraska to western Texas will be the focal point severe storms including tornadoes and large hail Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. We also have to watch the the warm front Wednesday night into Thursday across Kansas into Missouri for clusters of storms developing.

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

This sounds like the best till last, sort of thing, could be quite good, could be exceptional. Positive thoughts only from me ;)

I was daydreaming earlier on today whilst strolling through a frosty field, yesterdays silage cut at nearly 30 mph, jet airplane passing almost silently over at around 10,000 feet:

The sight of one or more of those huge North American Twisters, must have been an an almost biblical(in the scared to death sense) experience for the American pioneers. Many people emigrated from all over Europe to colonize what is now the USA as we all know. What thoughts must have crossed their minds when a twister came across them. Their horses would have bolted in all probability especially if they were traveling at the time, if they were at a farmstead it takes a strong fence to keep in a few bolting horses and cows, all most humans would have to get out of the way of a twister, were their own two feet or the odd exceptionally trained animal. On getting away, if all of ones possessions were destroyed....Fin, more or less. No disaster fund, no help what so ever probably. Most settlers were pretty widely scattered for the first 100 years or more, news took time to pass. It took me most of the day when I tried to make fire with nothing other than sticks and string. Took me over a week to learn how to catch a rabbit...

Anyway, enough historic pondering, I wish all chasers who are reading the best of luck in this approaching breezy period ;)

Russ

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

That's quite accurate, Rusty, I remember reading a pioneer account of a tornado that hit a relatively new settlement in Ontario in 1829, the descriptions sounded much like what you were saying, and it was clear that the people had never heard of a tornado before this one hit.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

What a thought provoking comment Rusty, although some early settlers knew of 'twisting storms' because of native indians passing on myths and legends about them, still, they must have been scared witless when confronted by one..!

i found this account of a storm that hit parts of Illinois in 1804. Quote from John Reynolds (1887) ' The Pioneer History Of Illinois'.

"On June 5, 1805, a terrific hurricane swept over a part of Illinois. It was one of those tempests of the whirlwind order....It was about three-quarters of a mile wide, and to that extent, for several miles in Illinois, it prostrated trees and even swept the water out of the river and the lakes in the American Bottom to that width....A large bull was raised up high in the air; carried a considerable distance, and every bone in his body was broken....The storm carried in it pine tops from Missouri, which do not grow nearer than fifty or sixty miles from the American Bottom." .

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
This sounds like the best till last, sort of thing, could be quite good, could be exceptional. Positive thoughts only from me B)

I was daydreaming earlier on today whilst strolling through a frosty field, yesterdays silage cut at nearly 30 mph, jet airplane passing almost silently over at around 10,000 feet:

The sight of one or more of those huge North American Twisters, must have been an an almost biblical(in the scared to death sense) experience for the American pioneers. Many people emigrated from all over Europe to colonize what is now the USA as we all know. What thoughts must have crossed their minds when a twister came across them. Their horses would have bolted in all probability especially if they were traveling at the time, if they were at a farmstead it takes a strong fence to keep in a few bolting horses and cows, all most humans would have to get out of the way of a twister, were their own two feet or the odd exceptionally trained animal. On getting away, if all of ones possessions were destroyed....Fin, more or less. No disaster fund, no help what so ever probably. Most settlers were pretty widely scattered for the first 100 years or more, news took time to pass. It took me most of the day when I tried to make fire with nothing other than sticks and string. Took me over a week to learn how to catch a rabbit...

Anyway, enough historic pondering, I wish all chasers who are reading the best of luck in this approaching breezy period :)

Russ

Talking about pioneers I bet this old boy could tell some tales about storms. Tom Lynch

post-2466-1211346592_thumb.jpg

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